ABNT20 KNHC 111239 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Corrected to fix a typo and include mention of gale warnings for
non-tropical area of low pressure south-southeast of Nova Scotia.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has persisted and continues to
show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure
located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these
structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a
tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this
morning. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to
continue today across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and
interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system
is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Atlantic (AL96):
A weak trough of low pressure located over the central Atlantic is
only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Significant development of this system is becoming unlikely over
the next few days as the system drifts generally northward,
remaining over the central Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few
hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. While
current shower and thunderstorm activity with the system is limited,
this system is drifting over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream
where some tropical or subtropical development could occur over the
next day or two. By the middle of this week, the system is expected
to move northward over cooler waters, ending its chances for further
tropical development. For more information on this system, including
gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather
Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 231156
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that an area of low pressure has formed
about 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda, and the associated
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization. A
tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight, with
further intensification to a tropical storm likely on Sunday while
the low moves northward over the southwestern Atlantic. An Air
Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low
this afternoon. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of
this system as watches could be still required later today. For
additional information, including gale warnings, please see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

East of the Windward Islands (AL99):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the Windward
Islands. Some development of this system could occur during the
next few days while the system moves quickly westward at about 20
mph. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across
portions of the Windward Islands as the system moves through on
Sunday and Monday. By the middle of next week, conditions over the
central Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further
development.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ABNT20 KNHC 261122
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, near the eastern Azores, and on
recently upgraded Hurricane Humberto, over the subtropical central
Atlantic.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
over the southwestern Atlantic.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.
Interests in this area should also monitor the progress of the
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 021143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located east of Bermuda.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
couple of days. Any additional development is expected to be slow
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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ABNT20 KNHC 061117
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical central Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands
by the latter part of the week. Interests there should monitor the
progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 071127
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located a little more than
1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated on a tropical depression later
today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward
across the central tropical Atlantic, and then move near or north of
the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. Interests
there should continue to monitor its progress. For more information
on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Southwestern Gulf:
A trough of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later
today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland
over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and southern
Mexico during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 111146
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located over the southwestern Atlantic about midway
between the northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda.

Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located well to the south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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ABNT20 KNHC 162357
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

North Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently developing several
hundred miles to the south of of Nova Scotia, Canada. This system is
expected to drop southeastward and then turn northeastward by this
weekend, and some subtropical or tropical development could occur
while the system moves over the Gulf Stream to the northeast of
Bermuda. By early next week, the system will move further
northeastward into colder waters, ending its chances for
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 191144
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Windward Islands and the Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning
across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system
moves quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph into the eastern Caribbean
Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next
day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system
is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during
the middle portion of the week, where environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could
from over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portion
of this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 201148
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms primarily east of
the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph towards
the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next
few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is
likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and
Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the
ABC Islands during the next couple of days. For more information on
this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin
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ABNT20 KNHC 211126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that the area
of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea appears to be
developing a well-defined center, and is already producing winds up
to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while
it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and
gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the
next day or two. Interests in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and
Cuba should monitor the progress of this system as there is a risk
of heavy rain and flooding, strong winds, and rough surf later this
week. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate
the system later today. For additional information on this system,
including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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ABNT20 KNHC 161124
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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ABNT20 KNHC 301126
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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