991
AXNT20 KNHC 141053
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Widespread fresh E trade winds and rough
seas will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern
Caribbean through this weekend as a strong pressure gradient
prevails between low pressure over northwestern Colombia and high
pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will pulse to gale force
early this morning offshore of NW Colombia, with winds reaching
near-gale force each night and early morning thereafter into Sun.
Very rough seas will occur near and to the west of the highest
winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A mixed cold and stationary front
extending from central Florida to 24N95W to the western Bay of
Campeche will stall today. Strong to near-gale force winds will
occur to the north and west of this front early this morning, and
winds will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz. Very
rough seas up to 15 ft will occur near the gale force winds. Winds
and seas in this region will diminish from north to south this
morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
01S18W. The ITCZ continues from 01S18W to 01S37W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 06N and east of 15W, and
south of 04N and west of 30W.

...GULF of Mexico...

Please refer to the special features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning.

A cold front has been analyzed from Tampa Bay to 27N86W, and a
stationary front continues to 24N95W to the western Bay of
Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are
occurring to the north of these fronts in the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Strong to near-gale force N winds are occurring in the
far southwestern Gulf, with gale force winds noted just offshore
of Veracruz. Rough seas are occurring to the west of the
stationary front, with locally very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft
noted near the gale force winds. Elsewhere, a trough has been
analyzed in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and moderate to locally
fresh SE to NE winds are noted surrounding this feature.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail in the
southeastern Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold and stationary fronts
will stall today. Strong to near-gale force winds will occur to
the north and west of this front early this morning, and winds
will briefly reach gale force offshore of Veracruz. Very rough
seas up to 15 ft will occur near the gale force winds. Winds and
seas in this region will diminish from north to south this
morning. The aforementioned front will lift northward this
afternoon into Sat, supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds
across much of the basin. Winds will increase to strong speeds
across the northwestern and north-central Gulf of Mexico by Sat
morning as a tightening pressure gradient develops between the
front and strengthening low pressure in the central United States.
Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwestern
basin late Sat into Sun, promoting fresh to strong N winds and
rough seas west of 90W. Gale force winds will be possible offshore
of Veracruz on Sun behind the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the special features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore
of Colombia this morning.

A tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the
central Atlantic and the eastern extent of the Pacific monsoon
trough in the south-central Caribbean. This pattern is supporting
widespread fresh E winds through much of the basin, with strong
winds occurring in the central Caribbean, through the Windward
Passage, in the Gulf of Honduras and through the Atlantic Passages
into the northeastern Caribbean. Gale force winds are noted just
offshore of Colombia. Rough seas cover the southwestern, central
and eastern basin, with locally very rough seas occurring near and
to the west of the gale force winds.

For the forecast, widespread fresh E trade winds and rough seas
will occur across the southwestern, central and eastern Caribbean
through this weekend. Winds will pulse to gale force early this
morning offshore of NW Colombia, with winds reaching near-gale
force each night and early morning thereafter into Sun. Very rough
seas will occur near and to the west of the highest winds.
Pulsing strong winds are expected across the central Caribbean
through this weekend, as well as in the Gulf of Venezuela, through
the Atlantic Passages, in the lee of Cuba and Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will
occur in the northwestern Caribbean through this weekend. Looking
ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the Colombian low
and high pressure in the western and central Atlantic will support
moderate to fresh trade winds and locally rough seas across the
basin into early next week, with locally strong winds occurring
offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25.5N33W in the eastern
Atlantic. Rough seas are occurring along and to the north of this
front, and seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted north of 27.5N.
Elsewhere, a cold front is pushing off the southeastern coast of
the United States, extending from 31N77W to central Florida.
Moderate N winds are occurring north of this front. Otherwise, the
remainder of the basin is dominated by a 1030 mb high centered
near 29N57W. Moderate to fresh E trade winds and rough are
occurring south of 25N, with locally strong winds noted south of
20N and west of 40W. Locally very rough seas are occurring near
the strongest winds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E trade winds are expected
south of 25N, including through the Atlantic Passages into the
Caribbean through late tonight, with fresh to pulsing strong E
winds expected into early next week. A long-period E swell will
support rough seas in this region, with locally very rough seas
possible east of the Windward Islands through Sat. A strong cold
front extending from 31N77W to central Florida will progress
southeastward today, leading to fresh to strong NE to E winds
behind the front, generally north of 28.5N and west of 60W. Rough
seas will occur in tandem with these winds. The cold front will
stall along 28N on Sat, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
prevail north of this boundary. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S
to SW winds and rough seas will develop west of 70W off the coast
of Florida on Sun ahead of a very strong storm system moving
through the eastern United States. A cold front associated with
this system will exit the SE United States late Sun and reach from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE
and weaken considerably through Tue.

$$
ADAMS
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901
AXNT20 KNHC 081045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Rough seas generated by a
storm system centered north of the area will shift eastward across
the western and central Atlantic today. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are
expected north of 29N between 68W and 55W through late tonight.
The significant swell heights are forecast to gradually lower
below 12 ft through the weekend as the swell set shifts eastward.

SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is slated to enter
the northwestern Gulf tonight, and gale force NW winds will occur
behind the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very
rough seas will be possible near the strongest winds. Widespread
fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are expected across
much of the basin in the wake of the front as it moves
southeastward Sun into Mon. Winds will diminish from west to east
Mon through Mon night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 08N13W and continues to 00N32W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ and continues to 03S43W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted S of 03N between 09W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about an
upcoming SW Gulf Gale Warning.

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1019 mb
high centered east of the Bahamas. The pressure gradient in the
area is leading to mainly moderate S winds with locally fresh
winds in the central and west-central Gulf, as seen on recent
scatterometer data. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3
to 5 ft in the central and western Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate S to SE winds will occur across the
Gulf of Mexico today, with fresh winds expected south of 25N and
west of 85W, as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high
pressure east of the Bahamas and strengthening low pressure in the
central United States. A cold front is slated to enter the
northwestern basin tonight, and fresh to strong N to NW winds and
rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it moves
southeastward Sun into Mon. Gale force NW winds will occur behind
the front offshore of Veracruz on Sun, and locally very rough seas
will be possible near the strongest winds. Winds will diminish
from west to east Mon through Mon night. Looking ahead, high
pressure will rebuild across the basin early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted across the basin today,
as the Caribbean is flanked by a 1012 mb low over northwestern
Colombia and a 1019 mb high east of the Bahamas. Fresh SE winds
are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to strong NE
winds prevail offshore of Colombia. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4
to 7 ft offshore of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are
expected across the basin this weekend into early next week as
high pressure builds north of the area and low pressure prevails
over northwestern Colombia. Pulsing strong E to NE winds will
occur each night and morning offshore of Colombia and through the
Gulf of Venezuela, and locally rough seas will be possible near
the strongest winds. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are also
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early next week.
Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico
this weekend is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean early
next week, leading to fresh to locally strong N winds and locally
rough seas in its wake.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N52W to just north of Puerto Rico.
Scattered moderate convection prevails along and within 280 NM E
of the front, mainly N of 27N. Fresh winds are also noted with
this convection. Seas in excess of 8 ft prevail W of the front,
mainly N of 20N and between 53W and 72W. To the E, another cold
front is analyzed from 31N11W to 23N31W. Fresh to strong N to NW
winds and very rough seas cover waters north of the cold front.
Elsewhere N of 23N, winds are moderate or less and seas are mainly
5 to 7 ft. To the S of 23N, moderate to fresh trades dominate,
with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SW winds
will occur east of a cold front in the central Atlantic, extending
from 31N52W to just north of Puerto Rico, early this morning as a
storm system lifts northeastward away from the forecast waters.
Rough seas generated by this storm system will shift eastward
across the western and central Atlantic through Sat night, before
gradually decaying Sun and Mon. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected
north of 29N between 68W and 55W through late tonight. Farther
west, a strengthening pressure gradient between high pressure east
of the Bahamas and a complex low pressure system north of the
area will lead to fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 29N
between 80W and 60W today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong S to SW
winds will develop on Mon off the coast of Florida ahead of a cold
front moving through the southeastern United States. The cold
front is slated to move off the southeastern coast early next
week, leading to widespread strong to near-gale force winds and
very rough seas in the wake of the front. Gale force winds will be
possible in this region Mon night through Tue.

$$
ADAMS
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041
AXNT20 KNHC 091007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 9 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Significant Swell: Large W to NW swell generated
by a storm system centered north of the area is shifting eastward
across the western and central Atlantic waters early this morning.
Overnight Sofar buoy observations and altimeter data indicated
that seas of 12 to 15 ft are north of 26.5N between 49W and 60W.
These observations are a few feet higher than global wave models
have forecast. Seas are forecast to gradually lower below 12 ft
south of 31N by late Sun evening, as the swell shifts eastward and subsides.

SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the
northwestern Gulf overnight, and will sweep southeastward across
the entire basin through Mon evening. Gale-force NW winds will
develop behind the front offshore of Veracruz by late morning,
accompanied by locally very rough seas. Winds offshore of
Veracruz are expected to diminish below gale-force Sun evening.
Widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas are
expected across most of the basin in the wake of the front as it
moves southeastward. Winds will diminish from west to east Mon
through Mon night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 08N13W and continues to 00N26W. The ITCZ resumes near
02S34W and extends to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of
06.5N between 08W and 24W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted elsewhere S of 03.5N between 27W and 48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about an
upcoming Gale Warning today.

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf in recent hours, and extends
from near the Texas-Louisiana border to the upper Mexican coast
along 24.5N. Fog and low clouds extend within 120 nm E of the
front to the Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama coasts. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring across the Florida Panhandle, to the
north of a trough that is just offshore. Strong NW to N winds are
building in behind the front, and quickly raising seas to near 9
ft at this time. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging extends from the
western Atlantic into the southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE
to S winds are noted over the south-central Gulf, between the
high pressure and lower pressure over northeastern Mexico and
southern Texas, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate S
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for light
breezes and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will continue
across the central Gulf through midday today, ahead of a cold
moving across the northwestern Gulf early this morning. The
front will move southeastward across the entire Gulf through Mon
evening. High pressure building southward behind the front will
force fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas basin-wide as
the front sweeps across the Gulf. Expect strong winds with
occasional gusts to gale-force this morning across the Texas and
NE Mexico offshore waters. NW winds will quickly increase to
gale- force offshore of Veracruz late Sun morning, then diminish
by Sun evening. Winds will gradually diminish from W to E Mon
through Mon night as the front exits the Gulf. High pressure
will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging north of the area along 25N-26N dominates the basin.
Aside from fresh to locally strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras, offshore northwestern Colombia, and the Gulf of
Venezuela, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5
ft seas are noted across the basin, except for seas 5 to 8 ft
offshore Colombia. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity
is evident at this time.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will continue north of the
area through MOn night. The resultant pressure gradient will
result in moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of
northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela pulsing to
fresh to strong during the evening and early morning hours through
Tue morning, then returning late in the week. A similar scenario
is also expected across the Gulf of Honduras through Sun morning.
Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico
and enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon evening, reach from
central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Tue morning, then dissipate
from the N coast of Haiti to the Gulf of Honduras early Wed.
Expect fresh to locally strong N winds and locally rough seas
behind the front through Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
significant swell across portions of the western Atlantic.

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to just offshore of the
NE coast of the Dominican Republic. Moderate SW winds are found
ahead of the front, north of 28N between 41W and the front.
Scattered thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm of the front
north of 29N. Light to gentle breezes are evident elsewhere west
of the front, within the weak ridge. Large W to NW swell is
producing seas of 8 to 14 ft behind the front, and east of 66W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted north of 28N between 58W and
79W. Father east, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft
seas are noted south of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to SW winds and
rough seas will prevail over the waters north of 29N and east of
70W through this afternoon as a cold front moves N of the area.
Rough to very rough seas in large W to NW swell dominates the
waters E of 63W this morning, and will shift eastward and
gradually subside through tonight. On Mon, a complex low and
frontal system will move off the Carolina coasts and induce fresh
to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front and strong W to NW
winds and very rough seas behind the front. The front will reach
from 31N70W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N62W to
the N coast of Hispaniola by Wed morning, then drift SE and
weaken quickly through Thu morning. NW gales are possible behind
the front and N of 28N early Tue.

$$
Stripling
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742
AXNT20 KNHC 101031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system and an
associated cold front will move eastward off the coasts of Georgia
and South Carolina this afternoon through evening. Strong S to SW
winds are expected within 300 nm ahead of the front, with strong
thunderstorms likely to develop along the front and will be
capable of producing gale-force wind gusts. Strong to gale-force W
to NW winds and very rough seas will quickly develop behind the
front beginning this evening. The front is expected to reach from
31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue morning, and from 31N58W to the
N coast of Haiti by Wed morning. W to NW gale conditions should
remain N of 27.5N and gradually shift eastward between 80W and 64W
through late Tue afternoon, before the low pressure system lifts
further N of the area, and winds subside slightly. A large area of
12 to 18 ft seas in W to NW swell will be generated by this
system, N of 26N and behind the cold front. Seas will gradually
subside west of 60W Wed night through Thu night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Africa near 07N12W and continues to 02S25W to 01S31W. No ITCZ
is evident. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front moving into the eastern Gulf currently extends from
low pressure 1008 mb just offshore of Panama City, Florida to the
NW Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front stretches E of the low to
the Florida Big Bend and to the western Atlantic. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 25N and
within 120 nm east of the. Behind the cold front, fresh to strong
NW to N winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft prevail. To the east of the
front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 3 to 6
ft prevail. Seas are slight in and near the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, trong winds and rough to very rough seas follow
the front and it moves eastward across the remainder of the Gulf
through early Tue. Winds and seas will gradually diminish from
west to east today as the front exits the Gulf. High pressure
will slide eastward across the northern Gulf Tue through Thu.
Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building
seas across the basin by Fri, ahead of a cold front moving
through the southerly Plains.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging dominates the basin, centered on a 1018 mb high near
25.5N65W. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail across the central
Caribbean south of 15N, with locally strong trade winds occurring
over the Gulf of Honduras, offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Moderate SE to S winds prevail over the NW Caribbean,
ahead of the Gulf of Mexico cold front. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate easterly winds prevail. Seas 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
across most of the basin, except for seas 6 to 8 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the weak ridge north of the area will continue
to support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds offshore of
northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, and will
pulse to fresh to strong during the evening to early morning hours
through Tue morning, then return Thu through Fri. A cold front
will move across the Gulf of Mexico and enter the northwestern
Caribbean this evening, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras Tue morning, then stall from eastern Cuba to Belize early
Wed before dissipating Wed afternoon. Expect fresh to locally
strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the front through Tue morning.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning that has been issued for Atlantic waters offshore
the SE United States.

A weak cold front extends from near 31N41W to 20N65W. The weak
high pressure described above near 25.5N65W is producing gentle to
moderate anticyclonic winds N and W of the front. Large W to NW
swell generated by a storm system centered north of the area is
shifting eastward across the central Atlantic waters early this
morning. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are occurring north of 19N between
35W and 63W. This swell will shift into the eastern Atlantic
tonight through Tue. South of the front, gentle to moderate trade
winds prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 20N. Seas there
are 5 to 8 ft in NW and N swell. In the far E Atlantic, fresh N
to NE winds and seas of 8 to 13 ft dominate the waters between
the Cabo Verde and Canary islands, with seas N of the Canary
Islands up to 16 ft in strong N swell.

Further west, a stationary front extends along 30N from S of
Bermuda to coastal South Carolina. Moderate southerly winds are
generally west of 74W, across the Bahamas to coastal Georgia.
Seas across open waters there are 3 to 5 ft, and 5 to 7 ft between 55W and 70W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary boundary along 30N
will lift northward today ahead of low pressure approaching the
area from the west. This low pressure will move off the Georgia
and South Carolina coasts this afternoon then shift eastward
tonight. An associated cold front will move off the northeast
Florida coast this evening, accompanied by strong to near gale-
force winds and quickly building seas. The front will reach from
Bermuda to east central Cuba Tue afternoon, followed by strong to
gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas. The low will lift
out to the northeast by mid week, as the front weakens while
moving east of the area, with a trailing portion of the front
stalling along roughly 20N on Thu before dissipating. Winds and
seas will dissipate from west to east through late week as high
pressure builds over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front.

$$
Stripling
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