ACUS11 KWNS 180251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180251=20
CAZ000-180545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0093
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0851 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern California Coastline

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 180251Z - 180545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging convective gusts may accompany an
approaching band of thunderstorms over the next few hours. A severe
gust cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is approaching the CA
coastline, and is accompanied by a 100+ kt mid-level jet streak,
which is poised to overspread southern CA through early tonight. A
convective band over coastal portions of San Luis Obispo County (and
just offshore) is progressing southeast and is intensifying (per
latest lightning trends), likely due in part to increased forcing
for ascent. Latest mesoanalysis depicts very scant buoyancy, with
SBCAPE likely only exceeding 250 J/kg in a few spots, and given the
cool maritime airmass and lack of insolation, an appreciable
increase in buoyancy is not expected. Nonetheless, increasing
tropospheric flow, driven by the approaching upper
trough/aforementioned jet streak, will provide a favorable ambient
wind field to be mechanically transported downward closer to the
surface by the intensifying line. As such, isolated strong wind
gusts, capable of at least downing a few trees, is likely this
evening and early overnight. A severe gust cannot be ruled out with
stronger portions of the line, especially with favorable interaction
with the higher terrain.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 02/18/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Fo-3NMaDThDGjmJw_urjV75qpq6ptI2ZwZAjHFUqGFC3twNM8DcOC_OM6vuFXOGteA_38EK_= e9bahxs5PNWP588Sds$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

LAT...LON 35532113 35522030 35081899 34561833 34321823 34091829
33941853 33861874 33991906 34151936 34271976 34332012
34422048 34532067 35012083 35252099 35532113=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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