ACUS11 KWNS 151613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151612=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0085
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest
GA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 8...

Valid 151612Z - 151745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 8 continues.

SUMMARY...Some increase in the damaging-wind and localized tornado
threat is expected into early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived QLCS has intensified somewhat this morning
over the FL Panhandle and adjacent coastal waters, with deeper
updrafts and an increase in lightning activity noted over the last
2-3 hours. This QLCS will continue to move eastward into early
afternoon, in advance of a deep-layer cyclone moving across
central/northern MS/AL.=20

While the primary cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken through
the day, low-level and deep-layer shear are expected to remain
strong across the warm sector into this afternoon. Inland buoyancy
is currently weak (with MLCAPE of near/below 500 J/kg), but some
additional destabilization is expected with time from the FL
Panhandle/Big Bend into southwest GA, due to filtered heating and
continued low-level moisture transport. The strong flow and
effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2 will continue to support potential
for persistent bowing segments and embedded mesovortices, with an
attendant threat of strong/damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes.

..Dean.. 02/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lXwoJ3cBmEgPIVpf5eaZ2u1VH1M--Cvbxe4-SBuAZ1r9maJW3BbSqMdCRpSjxpfkQod9Scpr= zr-RaQ5vIyRO0yJbOI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 30158523 30888473 31388437 31758394 31688332 31448313
30768313 29718336 29688421 29378505 29578541 30158523=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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