• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0079

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Feb 15 00:23:36 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 150023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150023=20
    TXZ000-150230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0079
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0623 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

    Areas affected...Parts of the Middle and Upper Texas Coast

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 5...

    Valid 150023Z - 150230Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and a couple tornadoes will
    continue eastward to the coast during the next few hours -- within
    Tornado Watch #5.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KHGX depicts an organized
    squall line moving eastward along a surface cold front at around
    35-40 kt toward the Middle and Upper TX Coast. Ahead of the line,
    the HGX VWP is sampling a 40 kt low-level jet, which is contributing
    to large clockwise hodograph curvature (250-300 m2/s2 effective
    SRH). While the frontal forcing and 50-60 kt of line-parallel
    effective shear is promoting a continued linear mode (with a
    severe-wind risk), the ample streamwise vorticity and upper 60s to
    near 70 boundary-layer dewpoints is also favoring embedded circulations/supercell structures and a tornado risk. The risk of
    severe wind gusts and possibly a brief tornado or two will continue
    to the coast during the next few hours -- within Tornado Watch #5.

    ..Weinman.. 02/15/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8vRHWYJkH77u3Z-NzSjdJnUXbiTp50_uUsRvz8ph5974fX8IxpyLIBCaCeYtyRbM_Ly-z-ygJ= QGr05XajpQTBzXV2Rw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

    LAT...LON 29359614 29969556 30569492 30729444 30679405 30369381
    29949385 29609409 28729545 28609594 28929622 29359614=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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