ACUS11 KWNS 150003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150002=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-150200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Much of Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 150002Z - 150200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue spreading eastward across
Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi tonight. The primary concern
will be a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. A downstream
tornado watch will be issued in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented squall
line is tracking eastward along a surface cold front at around 30 kt
in far eastern TX. Damaging gusts have been a concern with this
activity -- given the primarily linear mode, though transient
circulations have also posed a risk of brief tornadoes.

Ahead of the line, the SHV and POE VWPs already show a large
clockwise-curved hodograph (upwards of 300-350 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). As
a robust midlevel trough continues eastward, this wind profile will
be maintained over the warm sector, with additional strengthening of
the low-level jet possible. While buoyancy will remain somewhat
limited with eastward extent, the favorable wind profile,
strengthening low-level mass response, and moist pre-convective air
mass will continue to favor an organized line with embedded
mesovorticies and supercell structures. As a result, damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes will be the primary concerns (and a strong
tornado cannot be ruled out). A downstream tornado watch will be
issued in the next hour or so.

..Weinman/Hart.. 02/15/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6rIIGZluFHLJc6D7vGmWFry8W2rdVNgx7pznQVJsXQ8w1bDdkm1xoumvd86PmXEfo0RztY5jL= x7-51Y5EEGM7wJpTSs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30669359 32039315 32709283 32959245 32969193 32909114
32709055 32379018 31879015 31079025 29949062 29619100
29449215 29539292 29689332 29959364 30669359=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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