ACUS11 KWNS 142316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142315=20
TXZ000-150045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Middle Texas Coast and vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 142315Z - 150045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for locally higher severe
potential. The main concerns would be severe hail and locally
damaging gusts. The need for a watch is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing along/behind the
tail end of a composite outflow boundary/cold front moving toward
the Middle Texas Coast, with additional weak warm-advection-driven
development in the warm sector. As a robust midlevel jet impinges on
the area, a continued increase in development is expected during the
next couple hours. It is possible that storms continue to be focused
on the cool side of the outflow boundary/front, and remain slightly
elevated as they approach the coast. Nevertheless, the strengthening large-scale ascent, around 60 kt of effective shear, and 1500 J/kg
MUCAPE may favor organized clusters and supercell structures --
posing a risk of severe hail and locally damaging gusts. It is
unclear if a targeted watch is needed, though trends are being
monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9UdPtkghmoV8vcNkq8TgIrkmTSenqmHQidj-Hae_7mMVbOipDeyI659tkEW1AFWZy3zH7XqKr= mhNbGmnb-jBOQU6Ruc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27809763 28079788 28429796 28749783 28969750 29089713
29029684 28729649 28369646 27719703 27809763=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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