ACUS11 KWNS 141649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141649=20
TXZ000-141845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0074
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Parts of south-central into north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141649Z - 141845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into the early
afternoon. Short-term watch issuance is considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning from
south-central into north TX, in advance of a vigorous
mid/upper-level shortwave trough approaching the southern High
Plains. Outflow associated with this band of storms has shown some
acceleration this morning, which will result in eastward progression
of the ongoing storms through early afternoon. Despite the presence
of strong deep-layer shear, convection has remained relatively
disorganized thus far, due to rather weak buoyancy and the
undercutting influence of the outflow.=20

With time, increasing ascent associated with the approaching
shortwave trough and gradually improving buoyancy (with MLCAPE
gradually increasing through the 500-1000 J/kg range) may allow for
some strengthening and increased organization into early afternoon.
Isolated supercells and/or bowing segments could evolve with time,
posing at least a localized threat for severe hail and wind. The
undercutting outflow may continue to limit the magnitude and
coverage in the short term, and watch issuance is considered
unlikely through early afternoon.=20

An increase in the severe threat is still expected later in the
afternoon, as storms begin to approach east TX. Parts of
south-central TX (near the southern periphery of ongoing convection)
will continue to be monitored for isolated supercell development
within a somewhat more unstable environment.

..Dean/Gleason.. 02/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4HanB0PmyFtFpLZ30JuLfyadnL7Il1OVmjfM6JEGZFugPsjR5bAbXIGUISRYBNAhxdeGJizH3= m_r7YPIX0De_OcpqvM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29630151 31069870 32109833 33539685 33589641 33539615
33369555 32649570 30779714 29809795 29269864 29099986
29100077 29630151=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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