ACUS11 KWNS 140412
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140411=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-140645-

Mesoscale Discussion 0072
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1011 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...West and Northwest Texas...Western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 140411Z - 140645Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible over
the next few hours across parts of west and northwest Texas into
western Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a
southwest-to-northeast corridor of scattered thunderstorm
development from west Texas into western Oklahoma. This activity is
being supported by warm advection and by large-scale ascent within southwesterly mid-level flow. The storms are located near an axis of
weak instability, where the RAP has SBCAPE generally less than 500
J/kg. The RAP is also analyzing a 70 to 80 knot mid-level jet from
southeast New Mexico into southwest Oklahoma. This feature is
creating strong deep-layer shear over most of the southern High
Plains, which will continue to be favorable for a marginal severe
threat late this evening into the early overnight period. Isolated
severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary threats.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7LDbBvBBq7OhTL6hu9AcSB3ib7VVs4Ybf1Kf05Vu0nkkUAY78Mknmq7olIff0YVDMAdv7nq0P= CtiQZ9mTlNqOArI_Bg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35629966 36219892 36359857 36279816 36109794 35699782
35179794 34269870 33329961 31870121 31580159 31390194
31350239 31500280 31750296 32200298 32880240 34740053
35629966=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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