ACUS11 KWNS 140028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140028=20
TXZ000-140300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 140028Z - 140300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A marginal threat for severe gusts and hail may develop
across parts of west Texas this evening. The threat is expected too
be to isolated for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A subtle shortwave trough is evident on water vapor
imagery over west Texas. Ahead of this feature, scattered
thunderstorms have developed over the last couple of hours to the
north and west of Lubbock. In the vicinity of these storms,
mesoscale analysis shows a small pocket of instability in west Texas
with SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has
0-6 km shear in the 75 to 80 knot range, with some speed shear in
the mid-levels. This could support weak rotation within the stronger
cells. RAP forecast soundings have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km, which could be enough for isolated marginally severe hail. A
strong wind gust would also be possible. However, the weak
instability will be a limiting factor, and any severe threat should
remain very isolated through mid to late evening.

..Broyles/Hart.. 02/14/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4hFFA5Gb6l_lnHHEey0_FmQYeQBWRgeehAjlLjAV60WzABOpzQzYFDDnlUKWY9NGunoCM_aqB= mpW7AWZGHApxdjRAmM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 33530301 34150293 34530270 34740234 34820190 34780110
34550064 34140050 33340064 32940092 32750127 32670175
32680226 32700261 32840285 33130300 33530301=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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