ACUS03 KWNS 051950
SWODY3
SPC AC 051949

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Sep 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will affect the Great Lakes to Northeast
region, while an upper ridge gradually weakens over the Rockies.
High pressure will bring cooler and stable conditions to much of the
central and eastern CONUS, as the leading cold front moves into
coastal Southeast and toward the northern Gulf. As such, instability
for thunderstorms will be limited in area.

Afternoon storms do appear likely over the eastern Carolinas during
the afternoon as the front lingers. Shear will be weak but a few
stronger storms capable of locally gusty winds may occur.

To the west, the stalled portion of the front over central TX may
yield areas of rain and thunderstorms, but severe appears unlikely.

Otherwise, a few nocturnal storms are expected over the central High
Plains Sunday night, as southerly winds in the low-levels support a
narrow ribbon of moisture/instability. While low-end hail cannot be
ruled out, overall potential remains low at this time frame.

..Jewell.. 09/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 060734
SWODY3
SPC AC 060733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will shift eastward at the beginning of the
week. An upper-level trough will approach the West Coast. At the
surface, a high pressure system will remain in much of the CONUS
east of the Missouri River. With the approach of the western trough,
some modest mid-level flow enhancement will promote stronger lee
troughing in the High Plains. A very subtle, weak shortwave trough
is currently forecast to be in the central Plains early Monday and
move eastward.

...Parts of southern/central Plains...
With moisture return continuing on the western flank of the surface
high, there is some potential for storm development along the lee
trough. Potential will likely be highest in these areas as they have
the more favorable overlap of stronger surface heating and low-level
moisture. Mid-level northwesterly winds will not be overly strong,
but around 25-30 kts of effective shear can be expected. However,
large scale ascent will be weak. Furthermore, most guidance show
somewhat mild temperatures and at least some remaining MLCIN even
during the afternoon. If a storm were to form, it could be strong to
severe, but confidence in initiation remains rather low.

..Wendt.. 09/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 061906
SWODY3
SPC AC 061905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe weather on Monday is expected to remain
low.

...Southern High Plains to Upper Midwest...

West to northwesterly mid/upper flow will persist over the central
U.S., flanked by an upper ridge over the Rockies and an upper trough
oriented from the Great Lakes to central Gulf Coast. A couple of
embedded shortwave impulses will migrate through the
west/northwesterly flow regime across the central/northern Plains to
the Upper Midwest. At the surface, modest surface low development
over the Dakotas and a surface trough oriented from the Upper MS
Valley into the southern High Plains, will result in modest
southerly return flow. This will transport low to mid 60s F
dewpoints north/northeast within a narrow corridor from western TX
into western portions of the central Plains and northeast into the
eastern Dakotas and MN.

Vertically veering winds will support marginal supercell wind
profiles with around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes and
elongated hodographs. However, convective coverage is uncertain.
With southward extent into the central/southern Plains vicinity,
forcing will be weak. Potential early-day clouds and remnant
convection from the Day 2 period over parts of KS may limit
thunderstorm potential during the afternoon depending on airmass
recovery and potential outflow. Further north toward MN, vertical
shear will be stronger and forcing for ascent may be stronger as a
shortwave impulse drops southeast from the Canadian Prairies.
However, forecast soundings indicate a warm layer/capping between
850-700 mb. Isolated thunderstorms (some strong) could develop
anywhere along the surface trough given modest shear and 1000-2000
J/kg MLCAPE, and severe probabilities could be needed at some point.
However, concerns over storm coverage, capping and possible
influences from prior convection preclude probabilities at this
time.

..Leitman.. 09/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 070730
SWODY3
SPC AC 070729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper
Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough across the Pacific Northwest is forecast to
intensify as it shifts eastward, impinging on the western flank of a
shortwave ridge centered over the Rockies. To the east, persistent
troughing should remain in place, with surface high pressure
dominating the eastern half of the country. As southwesterly flow
aloft increases over the western US and central Rockies, a subtle
shortwave trough/vort max will pass over the crest of the ridge and
into the Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. This should aid in
strengthening a lee trough over the High Plains, potentially serving
as a focus for isolated thunderstorm development.

...Central High Plains..
Continued low-level southerly flow will advect richer surface
moisture northwestward across the High Plains beginning early
Tuesday. As dewpoints increase into the low to mid 60s F, strong
heating should support robust destabilization along and east of the
lee trough. 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop beneath
substantial capping as mid-level heights will likely remain neutral
through much of the day. Eventually, weak ascent from the embedded
shortwave trough and low-level upslope flow may allow for isolated
storm development along the lee trough over the central High Plains. Northwesterly flow aloft will be marginally supportive of organized
storms, including the potential for supercells. However, given the
capping and weak ascent, considerable uncertainty remains regarding
storm coverage and severity. While sporadic hail and severe gusts
cannot be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe
probabilities at this time.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
A diffuse front will stall across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest
early Tuesday beneath the western extension of the broad eastern US
trough. Weak low-level warm air advection may support scattered
showers and thunderstorms through much of Tuesday near the front.
These parcels are likely to be elevated along and north of the front
with modest buoyancy and vertical shear expected to limit overall
severe potential. Still, a few stronger storms with sporadic hail
potential may evolve, though confidence in a sustained severe risk
is low.

..Lyons.. 09/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 071909
SWODY3
SPC AC 071908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Sun Sep 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible over the central Plains and Upper
Midwest Tuesday, but overall severe potential is low.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Upper ridging will build east into the High Plains on Tuesday. At
the surface, a lee trough will extend southward from western NE into
the TX Panhandle during the afternoon. Southerly low-level flow will
maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates. As a result, MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg will be common.
However, forecast guidance suggests at least weak capping may
persist across much of the narrow warm/moist sector, leading to
uncertainty in storm development/coverage. Nevertheless, if storms
can initiate and persist, supercell wind profiles will support
convection capable of large hail and strong gusts from
western/central NE into western KS, and the OK/TX Panhandle
vicinity. Uncertainty remains too high to delineate an area at this
time, but probabilities could become necessary in subsequent
outlooks.

...Upper Midwest...

A stalled surface boundary will extend from eastern SD into
central/northern MN and the upper Great Lakes vicinity on Tuesday.
Warm advection atop the boundary in a modestly sheared and weakly
unstable environment will support periods of showers and
thunderstorms through much of Tuesday. Overall severe potential is
expected to remain low as convection should remain to the cool side
of the boundary and be elevated, but a stronger storm or two could
produce small hail or locally gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 09/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 080730
SWODY3
SPC AC 080729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday. A stronger
storm or two is possible, but severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
The broad upper low over the western US is forecast to deepen slowly
as shortwave ridging to the east also intensifies. Between the
trough and the ridge, a 50+ kt mid-level jet streak and vort max are
forecast to lift northward across the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies. Ascent from the approaching jet will overspread a weak lee
trough, eventually resulting in surface cyclogenesis over portions
of central and western MT. The deepening low will draw modest
moisture westward across parts of MT, WY and the western Dakotas,
potentially supporting isolated thunderstorms, while scattered
storms are more likely over parts of the Great Basin and northern
Rockies.

...Northern and central High Plains...
As the lee low deepens over central MT, low-level moisture will
begin to move west along the trailing surface trough. Robust heating
is expected over much of the High Plains owing to clear skies
beneath the pronounced mid-level ridging. Weak ascent from the
approaching vort max/jet should aid in gradual destabilization
through the afternoon, though some capping is likely to be in place
along the narrow warm/moist sector. This should limit diurnal
thunderstorm development across much of the High Plains. Still, some
potential for isolated storm development exists across the Black
Hills or along the lee trough into eastern WY. Sporadic severe gusts
would be the main hazard should sustained deep convection develop
given steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Confidence in storm
development remains too low for severe probabilities at this time
given the limited synoptic ascent.

...Northwest and northern Rockies...
Closer to the center of the upper low across eastern WA/OR, northern
ID and western MT, scattered thunderstorms are likely Wednesday as
ascent from the approaching mid-level jet intensifies. Cooler
mid-level temperatures will overspread modest low-level moisture
(40s F dewpoints) supporting weak destabilization through the day.
Some gusty thunderstorm winds are possible owing to fairly steep
low-level lapse rates, and scattered storm coverage. However,
largely meridional flow aloft, remnant cloud cover, and MLCAPE
generally less than 500 J/kg suggest organized severe potential
should remain quite limited.

..Lyons.. 09/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 081914
SWODY3
SPC AC 081913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
Northwest, Northern Rockies and High Plains Wednesday. A stronger
storm or two is possible, but severe potential is low.

...Synopsis...
Long-wave troughing will deepen across the western US on Wednesday,
with heights increasing in the central US ridge. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft will move across the Great Basin into
Wyoming and Montana through the period. Widely scattered
thunderstorm development is expected across the Pacific Northwest
into the northern Rockies and central/northern Plains. Additional
thunderstorms will be possible along the Gulf Coast.

...Northern and Central High Plains...
As southwesterly flow overspreads the northern Rockies, a surface
low is progged to develop across eastern Montana. Moisture transport
will increase with mass response with dew points in the low to mid
60s spreading across the Dakotas into eastern Montana. Owing to the strengthening ridge, mostly sunny skies are progged across much of
the central/high plains. This should promote strong daytime heating
and moderate instability across portions of Nebraska into the
Dakotas. As strong MLCIN will also be over the region, it is
uncertain how many thunderstorms will develop given relatively weak
forcing. Gradual cooling from the advancing mid-level trough should
aid in erosion of MLCIN through time, with at least isolated
thunderstorms capable of strong to severe wind possible across the
Black Hills or along the lee trough into eastern WY. For now, this
threat remains too uncertain to include probabilities.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
The western trough will support widely scattered thunderstorm
development across much of the Pacific Northwest into the northern
Rockies. Modest moisture and sufficient deep layer shear amid steep
low to mid-level lapse rates may support some instances of strong to
severe wind. However, largely meridional flow aloft, remnant cloud
cover, and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg suggest organized
severe potential should remain limited.

..Thornton.. 09/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 090732
SWODY3
SPC AC 090730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across Montana and the Dakotas,
as well as the southern High Plains and Intermountain West Thursday. Uncertainty on storm coverage/intensity remains high.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper low over the Great Basin is forecast to slowly drift
eastward Thursday with several smaller shortwaves passing through
it. An embedded perturbation along the eastern flank of the low will
accompany a mid-level jet over portions of the northern Rockies and
Plains. This will help deepen a lee cyclone and trailing lee trough
much of the High Plains.

...Montana and western Dakotas...
As the upper low gradually edges closer, an embedded shortwave
trough and mid-level jet will pass over the northern Rockies and
Plains Thursday afternoon. The surface low over central MT should
deepen, increasing low-level southeasterly flow. A warm front,
extending southeastward from the surface low, will gradually lift
northward with 60+ F dewpoints in its wake over the northern High
Plains. Modest low-level convergence along the trailing lee trough
and near a weak cold front emanating from the low could support
isolated storms over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. With
sufficient buoyancy and increasing flow aloft from the upper jet,
some potential for organized multicells or transient supercells is
apparent. However, model solutions vary considerable on the degree
of capping and resulting storm development. Given these
uncertainties, no severe probabilities will be added currently,
though some risk for severe gusts and hail could be needed in future
updates.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Farther south, the lee trough may serve as a focus for isolated
storm development Thursday afternoon amidst strong heating and
increasing low-level moisture over the central and southern High
Plains. However, forcing for ascent beneath the shortwave ridge
appears weak as the main trough and shortwave are likely to remain
over the Rockies and Four Corners where low-level moisture is
modest. While isolated high-based storms could develop and pose a
risk for locally gusty winds, confidence in a broader severe risk is
low.

..Lyons.. 09/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 091854
SWODY3
SPC AC 091853

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CDT Tue Sep 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND EASTERN MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across Montana
and the Dakotas on Thursday. Additional isolated storms are possible
across the southern High Plains and Intermountain West.

...Discussion...
Persistent southwesterly flow across the Rockies will maintain
persistent lee troughing across the central/northern High Plains.
East of this lee trough, a large reservoir of low to mid 60s
dewpoints will be present across the Plains which will lead to
moderate instability from Kansas to the Canadian border. Isolated
thunderstorms may be possible by Thursday afternoon as inhibition
erodes along this trough axis. Organized thunderstorms will be most
likely from southwest South Dakota to western North Dakota/eastern
Montana where stronger mid-level flow and weak height falls will be
present. Very steep mid-level lapse rates and somewhat dry
low-levels will support the potential for large hail some severe
wind gust threat.

Overall, weak forcing may keep storm coverage isolated. However, if
greater storm coverage occurs, a hail driven Slight Risk may be
warranted given at least marginal supercell wind profiles across the
region.

..Bentley.. 09/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 100735
SWODY3
SPC AC 100734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated storms are possible over parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest with additional storms possible over the Rockies and
Great Basin Friday. Severe potential is uncertain.

...Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...
Shortwave ridging over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest is
forecast to shift eastward Friday as weak troughing emerges from the
Rockies. A modest increase in mid-level southwesterly flow will
impinge upon rich low-level moisture near a weakening surface low
and stalled warm front across the Dakotas and western MN. Low-level
convergence near the low/front may serve as a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development Friday afternoon and evening. Moderate
MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg and steepening mid-level lapse rates could
support a few stronger storms. Some enhancement of the mid-level
flow may allow for a few storms to organize with some clustering and
isolated strong outflow gusts. The primary uncertainty remains storm
coverage with most guidance showing only sporadic convection through
much of the day. An increase in convective coverage is possible
overnight and into early Saturday as a 35-40 kt southerly low-level
jet develops across the central Plains, bolstering low-level warm
advection. Should this occur, one or more clusters of thunderstorms
could propagate eastward along the warm front, potentially posing a
risk for severe gusts. However, this is highly uncertain and with
substantial model differences evident, no severe probabilities will
be introduced.

...Intermountain West...
Monsoon moisture is expected to linger over portions of the eastern
Great Basin and central Rockies Friday ahead of a broad upper low. A
shortwave trough within the southwesterly flow aloft will overspread
the region near peak heating. The increase in ascent will support
scattered thunderstorms over portions of the Intermountain West
Friday afternoon and evening. While buoyancy will not be overly
large (~500 J/kg of MLCAPE) and some remnant cloud cover/convection
could overturn the air mass, increasingly strong southwesterly flow
aloft could support a few stronger thunderstorms/clusters. With a
fairly dry air mass in place, stronger downdrafts could be capable
of isolated gusty winds given steep low-level lapse rates.

..Lyons.. 09/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 101838
SWODY3
SPC AC 101837

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts are possible across the Four Corners region on
Friday. Additional storms are possible over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest Friday morning and Friday night.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a strong trough will begin across the Intermountain West
with a trough across the Plains and a trough along the East Coast.
The pattern will shift slowly east through the day. At the surface,
expansive high pressure will lead to fair weather across much of the
eastern CONUS with a weak lee cyclone in the central/northern
Plains.

...Four Corners Region...
Residual moisture within the Southwest and central Rockies will
result in 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early Friday afternoon across
portions of the Southwest and into southeast Utah and western
Colorado. This instability, combined with weak height falls and
terrain circulations will result in widespread thunderstorm activity
Friday afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow (40 to 45 knots) will
result in sufficient speed shear for some organized storm potential.
While instability will be overall weak, pockets of greater
instability/stronger storms may result in a few isolated supercells
with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts.

...Northern Plains...
A cluster of storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota. If this occurs, some
marginal wind/hail threat could exist during the morning before the
low-level jet weakens. However, there is considerable uncertainty at
this time whether ongoing convection will be in place Friday
morning.

Additional storm coverage uncertainty exists Friday night. Most
guidance is fairly consistently showing a 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet across the central Plains. Moderate instability will exist
across southern South Dakota and if isentropic ascent can reach this
far north, some elevated strong to isolated severe storms may be
possible Friday night. However, at this time there is considerable
uncertainty whether this frontal zone and the low-level jet will
overlap. In addition, the low-level jet remains mostly veered Friday
night which will result in relatively weak isentropic ascent.
Therefore, a conditional elevated hail threat may exist across South
Dakota Friday night, but storm coverage remains too uncertain at
this time for probabilities.

..Bentley.. 09/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms, capable of strong wind gusts, are possible
over parts of the southern and central High Plains Saturday.
Scattered to numerous storms are also possible over the northern
Plains and Midwest, though confidence in severe potential is lower
here.

..Central and southern High Plains...
A cold front associated with a broad upper trough ejecting over the
central US is forecast to move east over the central/southern High
Plains Saturday. Southerly low-level flow is expected ahead of the
front, supporting weak moisture advection. Showers/storms and
remnant cloud cover are likely early in the day which could impact
later destabilization. Still, most guidance shows a loose band of
storms developing by early afternoon along the front within stronger southwesterly flow aloft favorable for marginally organized
lines/clusters. Some heating ahead of these storms is expected to
modestly steepen low-level lapse rates, which could support isolated
severe gusts with the strongest storms Saturday afternoon and
evening.

...Northern Plains...
The broad upper trough will slowly move eastward over the Plains as
shortwave ridging builds over the upper Midwest. East of the trough,
a weak surface low and stalled front will persist over the Dakotas
while a weak cold front moves eastward out of the Rockies. Scattered
storms are likely to be ongoing near the surface low across the
Dakotas early Saturday. Some isolated gusty winds or hail are
possible near the cold front/low if sufficient destabilization can
occur at the surface. However, there remains significant uncertainty
in this occurring given the potential for widespread convection.

...Midwest and Great Lakes...
A second upper trough will move out of southern Canada over the
eastern Great Lakes and northeast States east of the ridge.
Northerly flow aloft will be modestly enhanced with the passage of
the trough. Some thunderstorms are possible along the western flank
of the trough near a stalled front across the western Great Lakes
and Midwest. Moderate buoyancy across southern MN/WI into northern
IL/IA could support a few stronger storms during the afternoon,
though the modest flow aloft is unlikely to support much
organization or severe potential.

..Lyons.. 09/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 111930
SWODY3
SPC AC 111929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible over parts of the southern and
central High Plains and northern Plains Saturday. Scattered to
numerous storms are also possible over the Midwest, though
confidence in severe potential is lower here.

...Synopsis...
A large, negatively-tilted trough will shift east across the Rockies
on Saturday with a weak lee cyclone across the northern Plains. A
dry, continental airmass will be in place across the eastern CONUS
where high pressure will be in place.

...Southern/central High Plains...
Low-level moisture advection across the High Plains, combined with
cooling temperatures aloft will lead to some destabilization across
eastern New Mexico and into the central High Plains Saturday
afternoon. Overall heating/instability will likely be somewhat muted
by cloudcover ahead of the upper-level trough. Nonetheless, as the
cold front advances east of the terrain and interacts with weak to
potentially moderate instability, stronger updrafts may develop.
Around 40 knots of mid-level flow will result in moderate
instability and the potential for some storm organization. Overall
expect limited instability to keep the threat limited/isolated.

...Northern Plains...
Guidance consistently shows moisture wrapping around the northern
portion of a cyclone across South Dakota Saturday morning, this
moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft and isentropic
ascent may result in a few elevated thunderstorms capable of large
hail on Saturday morning. Additional storms may develop north of the
surface low as temperatures cool aloft and some surface-based
instability develops in the wake of morning storms. This environment
may also support a few strong storms capable of isolated damaging
winds/large hail.

..Bentley.. 09/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible in the parts of the northern
and central Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough, initially within the central High Plains,
will pivot northeastward into the central/northern Plains on Sunday.
A surface low is forecast within the Dakotas with a weaker trough
extending into the southern High Plains.

...Northern/central Plains...
A surface low is expected to be in the northern Plains. This, along
with a surface trough extending to the south and a warm front across
the Upper Midwest, should provide some focus for storm development
during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough,
hodographs will tend to have some veer-back characteristics in the
mid/upper levels. Even so, enough vertical shear should exist to
promote organized storms. Cloud cover may hinder surface heating,
more so to the north. Temperatures near -10 C at 500 mb will allow
for 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE with perhaps near 2000 J/kg in
Nebraska/Kansas. The highest confidence in storm initiation is
within parts of the central/eastern Dakotas where the greater
low/mid-level forcing will be. Forcing becomes less certain with
southern extent. Large hail and severe gusts are the main hazards.

...Southern High Plains...
A more conditional severe threat exists in this area. Model guidance
is not consistent with regard to how fast the trough will eject into
the Plains and pivot northeast. In either case, the surface
trough/convergence will be weak. The slower ECMWF solution would
suggest greater potential for initiation even though there still
will be slight mid-level height rises during the afternoon/evening.
Sufficient mid-level flow across the southern Rockies could promote
organized storms, but confidence in initiation/coverage is much too
low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 121829
SWODY3
SPC AC 121828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the northern and
central Plains and the southern High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across
the central High Plains and move northeast. There are still timing
differences with the northeastward translation of this trough with
the GFS near the Canadian border by 12Z Monday with the ECMWF
depicting this trough across eastern South Dakota at the same time.
A broad surface low will be present across the Dakotas with an
extension of this trough extending southward to the southern High
Plains.

...Central/Northern Plains...
Expansive cloudcover will likely be present across much of the warm
sector on Sunday ahead of the mid-level trough. This will keep
instability mostly weak across much of the central/northern Plains.
Moderate to strong effective shear will promote storm organization
with any of the stronger updrafts which can develop. At this time,
relatively weak instability within the area of greatest ascent casts
questions on the coverage of strong to severe storms Sunday
afternoon/evening. Therefore, some isolated storms capable of large
hail and wind gusts are possible, but a more organized threat
remains unclear.

...Southern High Plains...
Stronger instability is possible across the Texas Caprock where low
60s dewpoints will be present amid moderately strong heating.
Relatively warm mid-level temperatures (around -6C) could be a
limiting factor to storm development. However, some ascent within
the right entrance region of the upper-level jet may support storm
development. This is supported by scattered storm coverage from CAM
guidance which extends into Day 3/Sunday. Therefore, a Marginal risk
has been added to address this severe weather potential.

..Bentley.. 09/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 130701
SWODY3
SPC AC 130700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A pair of upper troughs/lows should be in place over the northern
Rockies and northern Plains Monday morning. The lead wave is
forecast to advance northward from the Dakotas and MN into central
Canada through the day, while the trailing low gradually opens and
weakens as it moves slowly eastward over the northern Rockies/High
Plains. A weak surface low should develop northward from ND into
Manitoba by Monday evening, with a weak front extending southward
from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. Organized
severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to remain fairly
limited, with modestly enhanced but meridional/southerly
mid/upper-level flow across MN limiting deep-layer shear over the
moderately unstable warm sector. Better large-scale ascent is also
forecast to gradually shift northward into central Canada through
the day as well. Given these potential limiting factors, low severe probabilities have not been included across northern MN and vicinity
at this time.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms should occur beneath the upper low
across the northern Rockies/High Plains, but both instability and
deep-layer shear are forecast to remain weak across these regions.
Isolated convection may also develop Monday afternoon and evening
with southward extent along a surface lee trough across the
southern/central Plains, but weak forcing aloft should tend to limit
overall coverage. Other convection may also occur along a low-level
moist axis extending from parts of the Ozarks/Mid-South northward
into the Upper Midwest.

..Gleason.. 09/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 131923
SWODY3
SPC AC 131923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears generally low on
Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The severe threat will remain low on Monday across the CONUS. A pair
of weakening upper lows will shift northward across the Northern
Rockies into Canada with westerly flow across the Plains and a
building high across the eastern US. A weak surface low should
develop northward from ND into Manitoba by Monday evening, with a
weak front extending southward from this low across parts of the northern/central Plains. While widely scattered thunderstorm
development is expected across the central/northern Plains across a
moderately unstable warm sector, shear will be displaced to the
north with the upper-level flow which should limit any organized
severe threat.

Elsewhere, a few thunderstorms are also expected to develop across
the southern High Plains near the surface trough. Forcing and shear
for organization will also be negligible in this region. Widespread thunderstorms are also expected near the upper-lows across the
northern Rockies. Weaker instability and weak shear in this region
will keep severe potential low.

..Thornton.. 09/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 140651
SWODY3
SPC AC 140650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to develop
eastward from MT/WY into the northern/central Plains on Tuesday.
Deep-layer flow is expected to remain modest, though 30-40 kt of
southwesterly flow is forecast at 500 mb ahead of the trough across
the NE vicinity. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to
develop southeast across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. A
seasonally moist airmass, with dewpoints from the upper 50s to mid
60s F will be in place ahead of the front, supporting moderate
instability from NE/KS into MN/WI.

Stronger forcing for ascent may not occur until after peak heating
as the trough ejects slowly east. Additionally, forecast soundings
indicate weak capping may persist near the surface boundary. If
storms do develop prior to 00z, deep-layer flow parallel to the
surface boundary may result in storms becoming undercut by the
front. Nevertheless, where favorable/sufficient effective shear
magnitudes overlap with stronger instability/steep midlevel lapse
rates, a few stronger storms could develop. This may be most likely
across parts of NE and vicinity where the cold front intersects a
weak low/surface trough, increasing low-level convergence along the
boundary. Even if storms are somewhat elevated, isolated hail and
gusty winds would be possible. While timing and coverage remain
uncertain, the overall parameter space suggests a couple of
marginally severe storms will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 141931
SWODY3
SPC AC 141930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Central Plains...
A positively-tilted trough will move eastward through the northern
Great Basin and eventually reach the central High Plains by
Wednesday morning. A weak surface trough and cold front are forecast
to be positioned within the northern Plains stretching southwestward
into the central High Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
will be in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s F. Surface heating should
allow moderate buoyancy to develop from Kansas into
Minnesota/Wisconsin during the afternoon. With the trough generally
expected to arrive later in the period. Forcing for ascent will not
be well-timed with diurnal heating. That being said, forecast
soundings do indicate minimal inhibition during the afternoon.
Should storms develop, there would be some potential for damaging
winds to occur. The ECMWF as well as available CAMs are more
supportive of this scenario than the NAM/GFS. Shear will not be
overly strong and it will be parallel to the cold front. However it
should be sufficient for a few marginally severe storms. The
probabilities were shifted slightly northwestward to account for
recent trends in guidance.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewaters...
A coastal low will continue to drift northward on Tuesday. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near and just to the north of the circulation
center. Whether sufficient buoyancy can develop inland remains a
question given precipitation and cloud cover. The likelihood of a
stronger storm moving onshore remains too low for probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 150648
SWODY3
SPC AC 150647

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough over the northern/central
High Plains Wednesday morning will meander eastward as a pair of
upper lows develop in the vicinity of NE and eastern MT. Deep-layer
flow is expected to remain weak over the Plains, limiting vertical
shear. However, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints ahead of a
weakening/stalled surface front will remain over eastern portions of
the Great Plains into the Mid-MO Valley. This will support pockets
of weak to moderate destabilization where stronger heating occurs.
Morning clouds and ongoing showers/thunderstorms could be in place
across portions of the Plains Wednesday morning, resulting in
uncertainty in where better destabilization may occur. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms appear likely across parts of OK/KS
northward through the Mid-MO Valley vicinity. However, nebulous
forcing and weak shear are likely to limit severe potential.

..Leitman.. 09/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 151930
SWODY3
SPC AC 151929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the central/northern High Plains will make
limited progress eastward into the Plains on Wednesday. This feature
is expected to broaden and become more disorganized with time. A
surface trough/cold front from the central Plains into the southern
High Plains will similarly be mostly stationary until later in the
period. Mid-level flow in the Plains will generally remain weak with
only a modest increase behind the cold front closer to the upper
trough.

Morning clouds and precipitation are expected to be ongoing in the
central Plains and parts of the southern High Plains. Upper 50s to
mid 60s F dewpoints will be ahead of the boundary. This will lead to
weak to moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms are likely in the Front
Range where low-end moisture and upslope flow overlap. This activity
may not be very intense given the buoyancy and uncertain low-level thermodynamics. Thunderstorms in Kansas/Oklahoma will have greater
buoyancy, but shear will be more limited. Depending on the position
of the front and destabilization, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms could develop in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Marginal
northwesterly deep-layer shear could promote a couple of stronger
storms given steep lapse rates. However, confidence in a more
organized severe threat in the Plains remains low at this time.

..Wendt.. 09/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 160725
SWODY3
SPC AC 160724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low will persist over eastern MT/WY with an attendant
shortwave trough extending into the central/southern Plains on
Thursday. A lack of stronger height falls will preclude much in the
way of surface cyclogenesis, with generally broad, weak surface low
pressure extending across eastern portions of the Plains into the
MO/MS Valley vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in
place from portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and
northward to the Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate
instability will foster scattered thunderstorm activity within this
zone, but severe potential should remain limited given nebulous
forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates.

..Leitman.. 09/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 161924
SWODY3
SPC AC 161923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening mid- to upper-level low centered over NE/SD will meander
slowly eastward over NE/KS and an associated trough axis pivoting
from northeastern NM into OK. Weak surface low pressure will
encompass the eastern portions of the Plains into the MO/MS Valley
vicinity. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints will be in place from
portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks and northward to the
Upper Midwest. Pockets of weak to moderate instability will promote
diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms within this corridor.
However, severe potential should remain limited given nebulous
forcing for ascent, weak vertical shear and poor lapse rates.

..Smith.. 09/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 170632
SWODY3
SPC AC 170631

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough oriented from the northern Plains to the Ozarks will
shift east toward the Upper Midwest and Mid-MS Valley on Friday.
Deep layer flow will remain light, and vertical shear is forecast to
be weak. While 60s F dewpoints will be in place from the Sabine
Valley north into IA, northern IL, and southern MN/WI, generally
poor lapse rates, and cooler surface temperatures from MO northward,
will limit stronger destabilization. Scattered diurnal thunderstorms
will be possible across the central U.S., but overall severe
potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 09/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 171910
SWODY3
SPC AC 171909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to remain in place across the central/northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday, as an embedded
midlevel cyclone moves eastward across SD. Scattered diurnal storm
development will be possible from the ArkLaTex into much of the MS
Valley, within a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. With weak deep-layer flow/shear expected across this
region, the threat for organized severe storms currently appears
low. Late in the period, elevated storms may develop within a
low-level warm advection regime across parts of KS/OK.

Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from
central CA toward the Great Basin, while a broader mid/upper-level
trough remains offshore of southern CA. This pattern will favor
potential for scattered storms across parts of the Southwest, with
at least isolated storm development possible from central/northern
CA into adjacent parts of NV.

..Dean.. 09/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 180702
SWODY3
SPC AC 180701

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper
troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period,
another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest.
Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor
lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid
60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will
support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 09/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 181921
SWODY3
SPC AC 181920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the
central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse
parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a
mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move
slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough
will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly
cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a
large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear
should tend to limit the organized severe threat.

Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could
support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across
parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from
parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a
corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this
time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front
Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may
be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be
sufficient to support a severe-hail threat.

..Dean.. 09/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 190713
SWODY3
SPC AC 190712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central
Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain.

...Synopsis...
The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the
central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will
become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded
mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the
Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent
between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the
pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and
amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs.

...Ohio Valley...
Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a
secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern
Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more
neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant
implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday.
A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more
pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio
Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some
severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance,
such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and
minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable
for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due
to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this
time, but may be needed in later outlooks.

...Central Plains...
A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with
moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing
will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height
falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the
afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and
therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly
low.

..Bentley.. 09/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 191928
SWODY3
SPC AC 191927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Great
Plains and the Ohio Valley on Sunday, though organized severe
thunderstorm potential remains uncertain.

...Discussion...
A compact midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Upper
Midwest on Sunday, while a broader large-scale trough encompasses
much of the central CONUS. Several embedded shortwave impulses (some convectively induced/enhanced) will track eastward within the zonal
midlevel flow across parts of the Ohio Valley, central Plains and
northern Plains through the period. Given the low-amplitude nature
of these impulses (and large differences in timing/evolution among
model guidance), organized severe thunderstorm potential remains
uncertain at this time. Nevertheless, a moist/moderately unstable
air mass will be in place from the southern/central Plains eastward
into parts of the OH Valley, and given the subtle areas of
large-scale lift and locally enhanced midlevel flow, a broad area of strong-thunderstorm potential is evident. As the details regarding timing/evolution of the embedded shortwave troughs and related
destabilization become clearer, one or more Marginal Risk areas may
be warranted over the central/southern Plains and the Ohio Valley.

..Weinman.. 09/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 200731
SWODY3
SPC AC 200730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible on Monday across portions
of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale trough will extend from the northern Rockies to the
southern California coast on Monday morning. Within this broader
trough, a closed low will develop off the California coast with a
more progressive trough/low across the central Rockies. As mid-level
flow strengthens across the southern/central High Plains, lee
troughing will strengthen during the day on Monday. Guidance starts
to diverge substantially with specific evolution of the mid-level
pattern Monday, however, despite these differences the overall
pattern of lee troughing across the central/southern High Plains
remains.

...Central Plains into Oklahoma...
Substantial low-level moisture advection ahead of the lee troughing
across the southern/central High Plains will result in moderate to
strong instability across Oklahoma and Kansas by Monday afternoon.
As mid level flow around 40 knots overspreads this warm sector,
hodographs will elongate and the environment will support organized
storms including potential supercells. A strong EML is forecast
across the warm sector which should suppress convection for much of
the afternoon with gradual erosion of the inhibition by late
afternoon. Initial storms will likely develop across southern
Nebraska where cooler temperatures aloft and the synoptic warm front
should provide ample forcing for thunderstorm development. Through
the evening, expect additional development farther south as ascent
erodes inhibition and permits storm development along the dryline.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and potential supercell storm mode will
support a threat for large hail initially. Expect storms to
eventually congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing
severe wind threat during the evening. A Slight risk may eventually
be needed, but a displacement between the better forcing (farther
north) and the better environment (farther south) precludes higher probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 201930
SWODY3
SPC AC 201929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Central and Southern Plains...
A substantial midlevel wave will track southeastward across the
central Rockies into the adjacent High Plains on Monday. In the
low-levels, a surface front will extend from NE southward across
western KS to an evolving triple point in the vicinity of southwest
KS. In response to the approaching wave, strong low-level positive
theta-e advection beneath a robust EML will yield a strongly
unstable air mass across parts of the southern and central Plains.
As midlevel height falls preceding the wave impinge on the surface
boundary and triple point, inhibition at the base of the EML should
gradually erode and support widely scattered thunderstorms by late
afternoon.

Around 40-50 kt of off-boundary deep-layer shear should initially
support semi-discrete supercells with a risk of large hail and
severe wind gusts across parts of western KS into the eastern OK/TX
Panhandles. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
farther north along the surface front into NE, though deep-layer
shear will be weaker here in comparison. With time, thunderstorms
will spread/develop east-southeastward across KS and western/central
OK into a strengthening southerly low-level jet during the
evening/overnight hours. This should promote a continuation of
embedded supercells and upscale growth into one or more
southeastward-moving MCSs. Severe hail and swath of wind damage will
be possible with this convective evolution.

..Weinman.. 09/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 210704
SWODY3
SPC AC 210703

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms are possible from the southern
Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

...Discussion...
A MCS will likely be ongoing somewhere across eastern Oklahoma on
Tuesday morning. A moist airmass with upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
will be in place downstream of these thunderstorms. Only modest
weakening of the low-level jet will occur Tuesday morning and
therefore, this MCS should remain through much of the day. If
sufficient destabilization can occur across Arkansas, northern
Mississippi and western TN/KY, some marginal damaging wind threat
could accompany this MCS as it moves east through the morning and
into the afternoon. Farther west, moderate destabilization is
expected across the ArkLaTex and north Texas.

A cold front will strengthen/sharpen across Oklahoma and move
southeast through the day. Convergence along the front, combined
with weak ascent amid falling mid-level heights, will support storm
development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Where stronger mid-level flow
(40 to 45 knots) is present, shear will support supercells. However,
it is unclear whether this stronger mid-level flow will overlap the
most favorable zone for storms. Timing and amplitude of the
mid-level trough remain uncertain at this time. If this stronger
flow overspreads the most favorable thermodynamic zone where storms
are anticipated, a Slight Risk may be justified in the ArkLaTex, but
model spread remains too large at this time.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 211928
SWODY3
SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the
Tennessee Valley. Strongest thunderstorm activity is expected across southeastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and southwestern
Arkansas, where supercells with large hail and damaging wind are
possible by the afternoon.

...Discussion...
A cold front moving across the central/southern Plains will sharpen
as it moves eastward across the lower Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys. It is likely that convection will be ongoing along this
feature at the start of the period across central Oklahoma. Storms
will gradually shift eastward through the day across portions of
Arkansas into western Tennessee and along the Red River.

Activity is expected to be ongoing across central Oklahoma at the
start of the period, with a eastward advancing MCS in progress. The
low-level jet is expected to remain strong into the morning on
Tuesday, which will likely support maintenance of some damaging wind
risk into the morning. Depending on how much destabilization can
occur downstream across Arkansas into western Tennessee, the
damaging wind threat may continue eastward through the afternoon.

A reservoir of higher MLCAPE (around 2000-3000 J/kg) may reside near
the Red River, with an increase in storm intensity by late
morning/early afternoon along the front. Sufficient deep layer shear
should be in place will support supercell structures, although a
mixed mode of multi-cell clusters is expected with time with
potential for large hail and damaging wind. A 15% area was added
with this outlook to account for this risk.

..Thornton.. 09/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 220723
SWODY3
SPC AC 220721

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to
amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to
move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the
eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning.

...South Texas...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on
Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a
southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus
shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong
heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind
gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning.
This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern
Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on
Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an
organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread
cloudcover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit
destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse
rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints
near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the
cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to
locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221125
SWODY3
SPC AC 221124

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION IN THE WEST

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from south Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough centered over the Great Lakes is forecast to
amplify during the day Wednesday. A weak surface low is forecast to
move from the Mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday morning to the
eastern Great Lakes by Thursday morning.

...South Texas...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across South Texas on
Wednesday as temperatures warm into the upper 90s ahead of a
southward moving cold front. Stronger mid-level flow (and thus
shear) should remain farther north, and mid-level lapse rates are
forecast to be very weak. However, despite these factors, strong
heating and convergence along the front should be sufficient for a
few strong to severe storms capable of primarily damaging wind
gusts.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley...
A moderately strong mid-level jet streak will be in place across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with a weak surface low on Wednesday morning.
This will result in a favorable kinematic environment from northern
Mississippi to the Ohio River during the afternoon and evening on
Wednesday. If moderate instability can develop within this zone, an
organized severe weather threat may materialize. However, widespread
cloud cover from Day 2 convection is currently forecast to limit destabilization across much of the warm sector where mid-level lapse
rates will also remain weak. Nonetheless, a moist airmass (dewpoints
near 70) will be in place and support some instability ahead of the
cold front with minimal surface heating. Therefore, a few strong to
locally severe storms may be capable of damaging wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221926
SWODY3
SPC AC 221925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with occasional damaging wind gusts are
expected from the Middle Ohio Valley to south Texas on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
A positively tilted large-scale trough will move slowly
east-southeastward over the Mid MS Valley and central/southern
Plains on Wednesday. Within the base of the large-scale trough, a
shortwave trough and related 40-50-kt midlevel jet will advance
eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Mid MS/Lower OH
Valleys through the afternoon. At the same time, a weak/broad
low-level cyclone will track northeastward along the OH Valley,
while a southwestward-extending cold front moves gradually
east-southeastward across the OH/Mid MS Valleys and southern Plains.

Numerous thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along the cold front
and ahead of the surface cyclone on Wednesday morning. Despite
lingering nocturnal inhibition, damaging wind gusts will be possible
with any well-established convective clusters and line segments from
the Lower OH Valley into northeast TX. Ahead of this activity,
diurnal heating amid lower 70s dewpoints will result in a moderately
unstable air mass by mid afternoon. This should favor modest
re-intensification of thunderstorms along/immediately ahead of the east-southeastward-moving cold front. While the strongest midlevel
westerly flow and related deep-layer shear accompanying the
shortwave trough will be confined to the cool side of the cold front (especially over TX), a couple strong to severe wind gusts will be
possible with multicell clusters that impinge on the warm/moist air
mass.

Deep-layer shear will be stronger with northward extent across the
OH/TN Valleys, though slightly weaker destabilization may tend to
limit the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, loosely organized
clusters capable of producing isolated wind damage will be possible,
especially where diurnal heating is enhanced within cloud breaks.

..Weinman.. 09/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 230729
SWODY3
SPC AC 230728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to New
England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible
with stronger storms.

...Synopsis...
A positively-tilted mid-level trough will continue slowly east
across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. At the surface, a weak surface
low will move from the eastern Great Lakes to the Northeast. A cold
front will extend from this surface low along the Appalachians and
into the Southeast.

...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
along a frontal zone near the Appalachians. To the east of the
mountains, at least some clearing is expected to result in weak to
potentially moderate instability. Weak mid-level lapse rates will
limit the overall threat, but strong heating (potentially into the
upper 80s to low 90s) within a weakly capped airmass should result
in scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mid-level flow
around 30 to 40 knots across the warm sector will support more
organized cells, and perhaps a greater wind threat, where any
stronger instability can develop. At this time, the best potential
overlap between the greatest instability and some stronger mid-level
flow may be across northern North Carolina and eastern Virginia.
However, instability remains uncertain since it is highly
conditional on Day 1 and Day 2 convection, and therefore, a Marginal
Risk appears to be the most appropriate category at this time.

...Portions of the Southeast...
Low 70s dewpoints across the Southeast will support weak to
potentially moderate instability despite minimal surface heating and
weak lapse rates. This region will lie on the southern periphery of
the best mid-level flow with some moderate shear (~25 to 30 knots)
possible. This may support a few more organized storms. Widespread,
loosely organized storms and PWAT values over 2 inches will support
the potential for some water-loaded downdrafts and isolated damaging
wind gusts.

..Bentley.. 09/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 231931
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Southeast to southwest
New England on Thursday. Isolated damaging wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the Upper Great Lakes
into TX during the day, translating slowly eastward through Friday
morning toward the northern Gulf coast and Lower Great Lakes.
Moderate midlevel southwesterlies of 30-40 kt will pivot from TN/OH
Valleys and Appalachians into the Northeast, increasing to 50-60 kt.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending southward across the Mid Atlantic and
trailing southwestward toward the Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a
moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain in place,
supporting scattered thunderstorms through the period.

...Northeast into the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...
Surface heating will result in relatively steep low-level lapse
rates across much of eastern GA/SC/NC/VA, with MLCAPE on the order
of 1000-1500 J/kg. Midlevel lapse rates will be poor, reducing the
overall severity of the storms. However, 30+ kt deep-layer mean
winds aloft may support a few clusters of storms capable of strong
to locally damaging gusts.

To the north, while elevated instability will support general
thunderstorms across all of New England, it appears any severe
potential should be limited to where surface trajectories will
remain mostly over land, within the instability plume extending as
far north as southeast NY and western MA/CT. Shear will be a bit
more favorable from southeast NY into PA/NJ/MD, increasing from 35
kt over southern areas to 45 kt farther north. Poor lapse rates
aloft will again limit severe potential, but isolated severe cells
will be possible.

..Jewell.. 09/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 240729
SWODY3
SPC AC 240728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the
Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the
coast from Georgia to North Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A cutoff low will develop in the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday
night and drift slowly east on Friday. At the surface, high pressure
will build into much of the eastern CONUS with a synoptic front
stalled near the Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina coast.
Farther west, a mid-level cutoff low will develop somewhere near
southern California/northern Baja during the day Friday.

...Southeast Coast...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop
ahead of a cold front near the Southeast Coast on Friday. Mid-level
flow around 30 knots may provide enough deep-layer shear for a few
strong storms. However, overall modest instability and shear within
a narrow corridor along the Southeast coast precludes the need for
severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Southwest..
Moderate instability and moderate lapse rates are forecast across
southern Arizona on Friday as some monsoon moisture is pulled north
ahead of the cutoff low to the west. In addition, some moderate 30
to 35 knot mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region
Friday afternoon/evening. This will provide an environment which may
support a few strong storms capable of gusty winds.

..Bentley.. 09/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 241925
SWODY3
SPC AC 241924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across the Southeast and into the
Carolinas on Friday. A few stronger storms may be possible near the
coast from Georgia to North Carolina.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper tough over the eastern CONUS is forecast to weaken
before becoming cut off over portions of the Southeast Friday. To
the west, an upper low will move slowly eastward settling over the
Southwestern States into the weekend. A cold front will move
offshore across the Mid Atlantic Coast and into parts of the
Southeast Friday and Friday night.

...Southeast...
As the cold front over the Southeast moves slowly eastward, a weak
wave low should develop along it across portions of northern AL and
western GA. Locally stronger convergence along the front and ahead
of the weak low is expected to support scattered storms at the start
of the period. Slow intensification of this activity is possible
with scattered heating of the moist air mass. Moderate buoyancy, but
modest vertical shear suggests a few multicellular clusters are
possible as storm coverage gradually increases through the day. This
would support some stronger downdrafts and sporadic damaging gust
potential given high precipitable water content. The highest storm
coverage is expected along the advancing front and near the coast
across GA and SC where a few downbursts are possible. However, the
limited vertical shear and very poor mid-level lapse rates lend low
confidence in 5% coverage.

...Southwest...
Beneath the weakening upper low, weak southerly flow will transport
residual monsoon moisture northward over the southern Great basin
and Four Corners. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the afternoon. Modest mid and low-level lapse rates will
support some destabilization beneath the upper-level cold core
despite clouds and ongoing showers/storms. While not overly strong,
30-35 kt mid-level flow could support a few stronger thunderstorms
with severe wind potential owing to relatively high cloud bases.

..Lyons.. 09/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 250729
SWODY3
SPC AC 250728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest into the
Great Basin and Central Rockies and from the Southeast to the
Mid-Atlantic. No severe storms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A cut-off low will be present across the Southwest and near the
southern Appalachians at 12Z Saturday. Both will drift slowly east
through the period. The low across the west may start to rejoin the
westerlies by the end of the period as a larger trough approaches
the West Coast. The surface pattern will remain mostly nebulous with
high pressure across much of the CONUS.

...Southwest...
Weak instability will develop across the Southwest and into the
Great Basin and central Rockies as monsoon moisture drifts northward
on Saturday. Relatively weak instability and modest shear should
limit the overall threat. A few stronger storms may be possible
across southeast Arizona, but the lack of stronger shear precludes
any severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Southeast to the Carolinas...
A moist, weak lapse rate environment will persist across the
Southeast into the Carolinas on Saturday. Around 30 knots of
mid-level flow will overspread this airmass ahead of a weak
mid-level low. This may provide enough shear for a few strong
storms, but weak lapse rates and instability should keep the overall
threat limited.

..Bentley.. 09/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 251907
SWODY3
SPC AC 251906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest/Four
Corners states, and from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic. Severe
storms are not forecast.

...Discussion...
Relatively weak winds aloft will exist over most of the CONUS, with
the main upper jet over Canada. Thunderstorm potential will still be
focused over the Southwest and Southeast, where slow-moving upper
lows will exist.

Given the persistence of both upper features, instability is
forecast to be weaker than on the previous day due to clouds and
overall moistening. For the southwestern states, slightly stronger
instability may develop over central/eastern AZ, with around 1000
J/kg MUCAPE possible. Modest deep-layer shear in this area could
support a few cells with small hail or gusty winds. For eastern
areas including the Carolinas and VA, widespread early precipitation
and clouds will likely hamper destabilization.

..Jewell.. 09/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260655
SWODY3
SPC AC 260654

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that amplified troughing within the mid-latitude
westerlies will continue to slowly advance inland of the North
American Pacific coast during this period. As this occurs,
downstream ridging is forecast to become more amplified across the
Canadian Prairies, while flow farther east trends at least broadly
cyclonic across the eastern Canadian provinces through the
northwestern Atlantic.

Within the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes to the south and
east of this regime, shorter wavelength developments within
generally weak flow remain much more unclear due to sizable model
spread. However, broad, weak mid-level troughing may continue to
shift northeastward out of the Southwest through southern Rockies,
while large-scale weak mid-level troughing lingers across the
Southeast. It appears that a pair of evolving tropical cyclones may
continue to progress west-northwestward across parts of the
southwestern Atlantic through Bahamas vicinity, to the southwest of
a notable high centered near Bermuda.

Similar to Saturday, due to generally weak deep-layer mean wind
fields and rather modest to weak diurnal destabilization, the risk
for severe thunderstorms across the U.S. appears negligible.
However, scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development
appears probable across parts of the Intermountain West and Rockies,
as well as across parts of the Southeast.

..Kerr.. 09/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261909
SWODY3
SPC AC 261908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Sunday through Sunday night.

...Synopsis...

The upper level pattern on Sunday will largely be characterized by
weak flow. A modest upper trough will migrate northeast across the
Four Corners/Rockies while weak upper ridging persists across the
mid-section of the CONUS, and weak upper troughing persists over the
Southeast vicinity. A pair of tropical cyclones will be developing
northwest over the southwest Atlantic on the western fringes of the
subtropical high located offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast toward
Bermuda. Overall, weak deep-layer flow and only modest diurnal
destabilization will limit severe potential, though scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the
Southwest/Rockies and the Southeast.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270703
SWODY3
SPC AC 270702

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Amplification within the westerlies appears likely to continue to
translate eastward through this period, with mid-level ridging
building across much of interior Canada and adjacent portions of the
northern U.S. and downstream troughing slowly digging across the
northwestern Atlantic through Canadian Maritimes and northern New
England. Upstream, large-scale troughing across the mid-latitude
eastern Pacific into western North America may begin to lose
amplitude, as a couple of embedded short waves progress
northeastward inland of coastal areas. However, it appears that
deeper troughing will be reinforced offshore of the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast by a much more vigorous digging
short wave trough, which models indicate will support renewed
significant cyclogenesis across the northeastern Pacific.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes preceding this regime,
troughing within generally weak flow is forecast to slowly shift
east/northeast of the southern Rockies into the Great Plains Monday
through Monday night. However, it appears that a downstream
mid-level high will be maintained across the Midwest, and models
indicate little general movement to weak mid-level troughing across
the Southeast.

A pair of tropical cyclones are likely to continue slowly migrating north-northwestward across parts of the subtropical western
Atlantic, including one north of the Bahamas toward the Carolina
coast.

...Carolina coastal vicinity...
The timing of the approach of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
remains uncertain, with increasing impacts along coastal areas most
probable late Monday night or later. However, as it approaches
coastal areas, the latest NAM output, among other guidance, suggests
that cool advection aided by strengthening north to northeasterly
near surface flow may contribute to a better-defined baroclinic zone
near the Carolina coast, perhaps reinforced to the cool side of the
boundary by evaporation of precipitation spreading downstream of the
cyclone. Even if enlarged, clockwise curved low-level hodographs do
evolve along coastal areas late in the period, the potential for the
inland advection of a sufficiently moist and buoyant boundary layer
to support a risk for tornadoes still appears negligible at this
time.

..Kerr.. 09/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 271931
SWODY3
SPC AC 271930

Day 3 Convective Outlook=20=20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A broad and pronounced mid-level trough will gradually overspread
the Interior West while a tropical cyclone meanders off of the
Carolina coastline on Monday (visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.= nhc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_gTDA510WxaJZQnlLQhY67zZybpAXNf6L1kJ1AK-p1C2kycRsB9= dSc6x8K2xAeEMSJR7U-bmiINMJLenCKPj76_Ynyk$ for forecast
details on TC9). Colder temperatures aloft overspreading the
northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies will promote scant
buoyancy, amid deep-layer ascent, to support convection deep enough
to produce a few lightning flashes through Monday. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms may also develop atop the central and
southern Rockies, as the passage of a mid-level impulse lifts a
moist low- to mid-level airmass. Finally, a couple of lightning
flashes may be observed with the deeper convective cells embedded
within rainbands approaching the FL and Carolina shoreline as a
tropical cyclone parallels the FL Peninsula.

..Squitieri.. 09/27/2025

$$

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 280713
SWODY3
SPC AC 280712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid-level ridging slowly shifting eastward
into the Hudson Bay/Ontario/upper Great Lakes vicinity, models
indicate that a significant short wave trough will dig across the
St. Lawrence Valley through Canadian Maritimes. As this occurs, it
appears that expansive cold surface ridging will begin to build
across much of the eastern Canadian provinces through Great Lakes,
Northeast and Mid Atlantic by the end of the period.

Upstream, a deep mid-level trough and embedded
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are forecast to continue slowly
approaching southern British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coastal
areas, preceded by a couple of weak short wave perturbations
accompanied by modest deepening surface troughing across the
Canadian Prairies into the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies.

Within a belt of weaker flow, to the south of a blocking mid-level
high lingering over the Midwest/middle Mississippi Valley, weak
mid-level troughing is forecast to dig offshore of the Texas Gulf
coast into the western Gulf Basin. As downstream troughing lingers
across and offshore of the south Atlantic Seaboard, guidance
generally indicates that an initially stalling or slow moving
developing hurricane offshore will slowly accelerate eastward,
either parallel to or farther away from the coast.

As this regime evolves, it is possible that residual low-level
moisture and/or cooling aloft may contribute to sufficient
destabilization for areas of scattered thunderstorm development,
from near Pacific Northwest coastal areas into the northern Great
Plains. However, it appears this will be mostly modest to weak in
intensity, with generally negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 281915
SWODY3
SPC AC 281914

Day 3 Convective Outlook=20=20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will meander along the West Coast through
the day on Tuesday, with multiple embedded impulses poised to
traverse the Interior West through the period. Cooler temperatures
aloft and associated scant buoyancy will overspread the Washington
Coastline, as well as the central and northern Rockies with the
passage of these impulses, supporting the potential for a few
lightning flashes. Otherwise, a couple of lightning flashes may be
observed along the eastern FL peninsula or Carolina coastlines in
association with (currently) Tropical Storm Imelda, which is
expected to turn east and move away from land. Please visit https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.nhc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!46E3DfVvIias= 44vVun8eIx5UNjZ2TQNMseSDMq5IU7XUFbkLQc2wll8Opnu2LhySkEwH_8Z3EPkjX--bqIt9scL= tpoo$ for more forecast details of Tropical Storm Imelda.

..Squitieri.. 09/28/2025

$$

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 290700
SWODY3
SPC AC 290659

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from low probabilities for thunderstorms across parts of the
Pacific Northwest, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible
across much of the rest of the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday
night.

...Discussion...
Beneath a confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of a short wave
trough digging southeast of the north Atlantic coast, models
indicate that the center of an expansive cool surface ridge will
shift southeastward through much of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
by late Wednesday night. The weaker southwestern flank of this
ridge likely will be maintained as far south and west as the
southern Great Plains and northern Gulf Basin, while the frontal
zone on the leading edge of the cooler air advances further offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard, in the wake of east-northeastward
accelerating Humberto and Imelda.

Upstream, flow across the northern mid-latitude Pacific into North
America will continue to trend a bit more zonal through at least
this period. An initially deep, occluded surface cyclone offshore
of the southern British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast is forecast
to undergo rapid weakening near Vancouver Island. However, as a
modest residual mid-level cold pool migrates inland, it may
contribute to sufficient destabilization for scattered weak
thunderstorm activity west of the Cascades and farther inland across
parts of the northern intermountain region.

..Kerr.. 09/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 291910
SWODY3
SPC AC 291910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast for Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A relatively inactive day in terms of thunderstorm potential will
exist on Wednesday, with a large area of high pressure dropping
south out of Quebec and toward the Mid Atlantic. This surface high
will extend westward across the MS Valley and into the northern
Gulf, where little instability or lift will be present to support thunderstorms.

A weak surface trough will develop over the eastern Dakotas, in
association with a midlevel disturbance. Ascent with this feature as
well as cool temperatures aloft may combine with daytime heating to
yield isolated afternoon thunderstorms, but severe weather is not
expected due to weak instability.

To the west, an upper trough will move slowly east across the
Pacific Northwest, with a belt of strong midlevel southwesterlies
moving toward the northern Rockies by Thursday morning. Minimal
instability across coastal WA and OR may support low-topped
convection, primarily near the coast and offshore.

..Jewell.. 09/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 300708
SWODY3
SPC AC 300707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday
through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a branch of westerlies across the mid-latitude
Pacific into North America may trend more amplified during this
period. It appears that this will include a mid-level trough
digging inland in some fashion across California on the leading edge
of this regime, but there is notable spread still evident in the
output concerning this feature.

Downstream, broad mid-level ridging is likely to encompass the
remainder of the U.S., to the north of a subtropical regime
including a building ridge along an axis from the northern Mexican
Plateau through the central Great Plains, and weak downstream
troughing digging a bit further southwestward through the Gulf
Basin. Beneath this regime, a slowly weakening surface ridge,
becoming centered off the north Atlantic coast, may encompass a
broad area from the Gulf coast and southern Great Plains through the northwestern Atlantic.

Models suggest that moist easterly low-level flow, to the north of
an offshore surface front, may become unstable enough to support a
risk for scattered thunderstorm activity across the Florida
Peninsula, northern Gulf Basin and perhaps adjacent northern Gulf
coast. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is possible
Thursday into Thursday night, along a frontal zone downstream of the
inland digging trough, across parts of the Great Basin, and within a
lingering low-level warm advection regime across the northern Great
Plains Red River vicinity through northern Minnesota. However,
guidance continues to suggest negligible risk for severe weather.

..Kerr.. 09/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 301900
SWODY3
SPC AC 301900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will gradually amplify along the West Coast on
Thursday, with increasing southwest winds aloft across the Great
Basin and into the northern Rockies. Ahead of this trough, an upper
ridge will exist from Mexico into the southern Plains, with a
secondary high from the TN Valley across the Appalachians.

At the surface, high pressure will dominate the pattern across the
eastern states, the Gulf of America and into the Plains, with
minimal instability forecast. Exceptions will be over the FL
Peninsula in a moist easterly low-level flow regime, and over parts
of ND and northern MN where southerly flow and moistening may allow
for elevated instability to develop. In either case, severe storms
are unlikely.

Otherwise, lift with the western trough and midlevel moisture should
result in precipitation and a few lightning flashes from central NV
into southwest MT.

..Jewell.. 09/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 010652
SWODY3
SPC AC 010651

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Across the eastern Pacific through western Atlantic, guidance
generally indicates that weaker, but more amplified flow will
prevail across the mid-latitudes through this period, with a
stronger, more progressive regime in somewhat higher latitudes
(near/north of the Canadian/U.S. border). Large-scale ridging may
continue to build offshore of the North American Pacific coast, with
both streams largely in phase. While one downstream short wave
trough may progress across the Canadian Rockies into the Canadian
Prairies Friday through Friday night, it appears that another more
notable perturbation may continue to dig across the Sierra Nevada
into the Great Basin.

Farther east, broad mid-latitude mid-level ridging may slowly shift
eastward across the Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic vicinity, while
in lower latitudes weak mid/upper troughing persists across the Gulf
Basin into southwestern Atlantic.

Beneath this regime, it appears that expansive surface ridging will
persist, but continue to slowly weaken, from the Gulf Coast and
southern Great Plains into the mid-latitude western Atlantic. While
surface troughing may modestly deepen across the northern Great
Plains into the lee of the Front Range, a substantive return flow of
low-level moisture emanating from the Gulf Basin will continue to be
impeded. Even so, some continuing gradual increase in surface dew
points appears possible along and southeast of the surface
troughing, which may contribute to modest diurnal boundary-layer destabilization beneath a plume of steepening lapse rates associated
with north-northeastward advecting elevated mixed-layer air.
However, it appears that inhibition associated with the warm air
aloft and weak mid/upper forcing for ascent will tend to inhibit
vigorous thunderstorm development.

Weak destabilization associated with large-scale ascent and
mid-level cooling may contribute to scattered thunderstorm
development across a large portion of the Great Basin into adjacent
Rockies Friday into Friday night, with additional thunderstorm
development probable within a residual seasonably moist environment
across the Florida Peninsula through northwestern Gulf Basin.
However, guidance remains suggestive that the risk for severe
weather associated with this activity will be negligible.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 011925
SWODY3
SPC AC 011924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Wed Oct 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for severe storms appears low for Friday.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will progress across the Interior West
while upper-ridging remains in place east of the Rockies on Friday.
The eastward advancement of the upper trough will encourage the
deepening of a surface low across the northern Plains, with
low-level moisture return anticipated across the Gulf Coast states
to the Upper MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated
across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies given strong
forcing for ascent amid marginal buoyancy. Across the northern
Plains into the Upper MS Valley, near the international border,
isolated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low along a
warm front. Across both the Interior West and Upper MS Valley, a few
strong thunderstorms are possible.

...Great Basin into the Northern Rockies...
Strong vertical wind shear is expected to overspread the Great Basin
into the northern Rockies ahead of the upper trough, resulting in
enlarged, curved hodographs. MLCAPE should remain generally under
500 J/kg, constricted to thin profiles above a mixed boundary layer
extending up to 600 mb. As such, the threat for organized severe
appears too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this
time. However, given strong vertical wind shear and the mixed
boundary layer, organized storm structures may produce at least some
sub-severe wind gusts/hail.

...Northern Plains into the Upper-Mississippi Valley...
Ahead of the surface low and along the warm front, considerable
veering and strengthening of the winds with height will yield
enlarged, curved hodographs with some elongation. Furthermore, 8+
C/km mid-level lapse rates will contributing to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE.
However, questions remain regarding the degree of forcing to support thunderstorms, with the upper trough remaining well to the west.
Furthermore, low-level moisture should remain mediocre, with surface
dewpoints barely reaching 60 F. At the moment, the amount of forcing
and low-level moisture appears too low to warrant severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 10/01/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 020719
SWODY3
SPC AC 020718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the
northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon or evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail.

...Discussion...
Downstream of building mid/upper ridging, perhaps including an
evolving high across the northeastern Pacific, large-scale mid/upper
troughing is likely to be maintained across the Southwest through
Great Basin vicinity. However, a notable short wave impulse
pivoting across the Great Basin at the outset of the period is
forecast to accelerate across the Rockies toward the northern Great
Plains Red River Valley, as mid-level troughing digs across the
Canadian Prairies. The lead impulse may tend to weaken as mid-level
flow trends more confluent near the central international border
vicinity Saturday night. However, models suggest that substantive
further deepening of surface troughing is probable northeast of the
Front Range into far northwestern Ontario before this occurs. It
appears that this might include the evolution of a compact embedded
surface cyclone across parts of central South Dakota toward
southeastern North Dakota late Saturday through Saturday night, but
there remains substantive spread within/among the model output
concerning this and other developments.

...Northern Great Plains...
Beneath a plume of initially warm and capping elevated mixed-layer
air, a narrow corridor of stronger surface heating and deeper
boundary-layer mixing along/ahead of the surface trough probably
will provide the primary focus for thunderstorm development with the
most appreciable severe weather potential. Although models suggest
that CAPE will be more marginal northeast of the Front Range through
central South Dakota than farther to the northeast, due to lower boundary-layer moisture content, thermodynamic profiles along the
entire corridor are forecast to become characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates with sizable temperature/dew
point spreads by late afternoon. Subsequent south-southwesterly
low-level jet intensification (including 50-60+ kt around 850 mb
through mid to late evening) will support potential for severe
surface gusts, as convection develops in response to forcing for
ascent and contributes to downward momentum transport. The extent
to which this potential may be maintained beyond a couple of hours
window remains unclear, as a cold front surging out of the high
plains and overtaking the surface trough might quickly undercut the
stronger late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development.

..Kerr.. 10/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 021936
SWODY3
SPC AC 021935

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Thu Oct 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the
northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon or evening,
accompanied by at least some risk for severe wind and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will become established across the Rockies,
with upper ridging expected along the East Coast on Saturday. A
pronounced mid-level impulse will eject into the northern Plains,
supporting rapid surface low deepening over the Dakotas by
afternoon. Seasonal low-level moisture return beneath cooler
temperatures aloft, in tandem with favorable vertical wind shear,
will support scattered strong thunderstorms across the northern
Plains Saturday evening, at least a few of which may be severe.

...Northern Plains...
A surface low will become established across the Dakotas during the
afternoon, with a cold front draped across the central/northern High
Plains. Ahead of the cold front, surface temperatures should reach
the 80s F amid low 60s F dewpoints by afternoon peak heating.
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (locally higher in some spots) is expected
given 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading the northern
Plains. Modest to substantial convective inhibition will likely
inhibit thunderstorm development over the warm sector through much
of the day. As such, thunderstorms will develop along and perhaps
behind an eastward advancing surface cold front by sunset, when the
primary mid-level impulse ejects from the Rockies. As this occurs,
substantial veering and strengthening of the vertical wind profile
is expected, with 50+ kt southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading a
30-50 kt southerly low-level jet. 50 kts of effective bulk shear,
mainly parallel to the cold front, will support linear convection,
with at least isolated severe gusts possible. An instance or two of
severe hail may accompany any more discrete storms that manage to
develop.

..Squitieri.. 10/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 030649
SWODY3
SPC AC 030649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm are not forecast for Sunday.

...Central Plains...

An upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains Sunday morning
will develop northeast into Ontario through the afternoon. Meanwhile
a larger-scale positive-tilt upper trough will persist across the
western U.S. as a second upper shortwave trough develops southeast
across the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains toward the end
of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop
east/southeast across the Upper Midwest into the central Plains.
Modest boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the front
(mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints). Destabilization is expected remain
modest, generally below 1000 J/kg near the surface front, in
particular from western KS into the eastern NE vicinity. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon/evening. Warm midlevel temperatures will likely preclude
stronger convection by limiting instability, though a strong storm
or two could produce gusty winds.

..Leitman.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 031911
SWODY3
SPC AC 031910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A surface cold front will remain stationary across the Plains
states, as a pronounced mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley
ejects into Ontario, and broader upper troughing remains in place
over the central U.S. Modest low-level moisture will continue to
advect north-northwestward as lee troughing persist over the central
and southern Plains. By late afternoon, subtle lifting along the
cold front, along with peak diurnal heating, should support
scattered thunderstorm development over the central Plains. Adequate
buoyancy and shear will be in place to support an isolated severe
threat.

...Central Plains...
The stationary surface cold front will be positioned along a line
roughly from central NE to the western TX Panhandle somewhere in the
18-00Z time frame. By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures
will exceed 80 F amid upper 50s to perhaps 60 F dewpoints, yielding
between 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given somewhat warm temperatures aloft
and meager moisture return, thunderstorm development will be
dependent on surface heating and any subtle convergence along the
cold front. Nonetheless, the latest 12Z 3-km NAM, ECMWF, and GFS
runs all depict convective initiation along the cold front from
south-central NE to the OK/TX Panhandles by Sunday evening. By this
time, a southeasterly LLJ will be in place, beneath 700-500 mb flow
that quickly veers to west-southwesterly, which will support
enlarged, curved hodographs. Despite poor buoyancy and weak forcing
for ascent, a few multicells or even a transient supercell or two
may develop, capable of an instance or two of marginally severe
hail/wind or a brief tornado.

..Squitieri.. 10/03/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 040657
SWODY3
SPC AC 040656

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will extend from the central Rockies toward
the Great Lakes on Monday. At the surface, a cold front will slowly
develop east/southeast across the upper Great Lakes southwestward to
the southern High Plains. Only modest destabilization is expected
near the front, limited by ongoing showers/thunderstorms Monday
morning, along with widespread cloudiness and generally poor lapse
rates. Isolated thunderstorm will be possible near the front, but
severe potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 041930
SWODY3
SPC AC 041929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for organized severe storms currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of
central Canada into the north-central CONUS on Monday. A series of low-amplitude shortwaves will move through the southern portion of
this trough from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Great
Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move through parts of the south-central Plains into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes.

In the wake of morning convection, modest low/midlevel moisture and
some diurnal heating/destabilization will support isolated to widely
scattered storm development along the frontal corridor during the
afternoon and evening. A separate zone of thunderstorm development
will be possible from parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the OH
Valley, in association with deeper moisture and a low-amplitude
midlevel vorticity maximum that may emerge from the Gulf.

In general, weak instability and only modest deep-layer flow/shear
near the front are expected to limit organized-severe potential. One
exception may be from parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle,
where post-frontal easterly low-level flow will result in veering
wind profiles, somewhat elongated hodographs, and some strong-storm
potential. However, uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of
low-level moisture and instability within this post-frontal regime.
Another exception may be across the southern Great Lakes, where
somewhat stronger deep-layer flow may overspread the front, but most
guidance only suggests very weak destabilization across this area
through late afternoon.

..Dean.. 10/04/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 050701
SWODY3
SPC AC 050700

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper trough will deepen while shifting east across eastern
portions of the Midwest and Northeast. Meanwhile, second upper
shortwave trough will migrate east across the central Plains. At the
surface, high pressure will strengthen across the central Plains to
the Upper Midwest in the wake of a cold front developing southeast
across New England into the Mid-South and the southern Plains.
Modest destabilization is expected across moist warm sector ahead of
the surface front, supporting isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. However, stronger vertical shear will lag behind the
surface front and poor lapse rates will limit stronger instability,
and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 051919
SWODY3
SPC AC 051918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast for Tuesday.
However, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out from northeast Ohio
into western New York from late afternoon through evening.

...Synopsis...
Southern portions of an upper trough will sweep east across the
Great Lakes during the day and into the Northeast overnight, with
relatively weak flow into the Plains with an upper ridge. A cold
front will progress toward the lower Great Lakes and into the OH
Valley late, accelerating across New England into Wednesday morning.

Ahead of the front, dewpoints in the 60s F and pockets of heating
will lead to several hundred J/kg MUCAPE into parts of New York and Pennsylvania, where large-scale ascent will be increasing late in
the day. Areas of early precipitation will be possible ahead of the
cold front during the day, which may limit destabilization. However,
a diurnal increase in activity is likely as ascent is maximized,
from northeast OH into northern PA and much of upstate NY.

Forecast soundings from various models indicate uncertainty in the
degree of destabilization and antecedent precipitation. In addition,
much of the activity will occur during the evening after peak
heating. Given these uncertainties, will maintain general
thunderstorms for the area. However, given increasing deep-layer
shear and lift, a conditional risk of at least isolated severe gusts
cannot be ruled out should this setup trend in a more unstable
direction.

..Jewell.. 10/05/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 060653
SWODY3
SPC AC 060652

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Wednesday. At
the surface, high pressure will build over the CONUS as surface cold
front moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the eastward-advancing front
from south TX into the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Severe
thunderstorm potential will be limited by poor lapse rates, weak
instability, and only modest vertical shear.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across the southern Rockies
vicinity where lingering moisture is forecast in the post-frontal
upslope regime. Modest instability and weak shear will limit severe
potential, but modest midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures
aloft could support isolated small hail with high-based convection.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 061859
SWODY3
SPC AC 061858

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
northeastern states on Wednesday, with an upper high over the
southern Plains. To the west, an upper low will drop south off the
coastal Pacific Northwest, with deepening upper trough across much
of the western states.

At the surface, an expansive area of high pressure will affect much
of the central and eastern CONUS, with high centered over the upper
Great Lakes.

Early day thunderstorms may occur along a cold front from southern
New England into the northern Mid Atlantic, with minimal instability
forecast prior to the front moving offshore. Other daytime storms
will develop along the trailing front into the Carolinas and GA,
with minimal instability again limiting severe potential beneath
modest westerly flow aloft.

Elsewhere, general thunderstorms will occur during the afternoon
over much of NM and eastern AZ, but instability will not be as
strong as on Tuesday.

..Jewell.. 10/06/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 070656
SWODY3
SPC AC 070655

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Upper ridging will persist over the Plains on Thursday. A weak
shortwave impulse will move through the top of the ridge toward the
Upper Great Lakes while another shortwave trough approaches the
northern Plains by the end of the period. A large upper cyclone is
forecast to remain offshore the Pacific Northwest coast while
Hurricane Priscilla parallels the Baja coast.

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in a
mostly dry and stable airmass across the Midwest. While some modest
moisture will return northward across the Plains on the western
periphery of the surface high and ahead of the northern Plains upper
shortwave trough, boundary layer moisture will remain meager across
the Plains, precluding thunderstorm activity. Isolated storms are
possible across parts of the Southeast where lingering moisture will
be in place behind a prior cold frontal passage, but severe storms
are not expected. Additional storms are possible across parts of the
Southwest where low-level south/southeasterly flow will transport
modest boundary layer moisture across the region. Poor lapse rates
will limit instability to less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE and severe
storms are unlikely.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 071926
SWODY3
SPC AC 071925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across the
Pacific Coast and adjacent eastern Pacific on Thursday. Hurricane
Priscilla is forecast by NHC to move north-northwestward off of the
Baja California coast, as it begins to be influenced by the deep
western trough. Moisture associated with Priscilla will advance
northward across parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and eventually
the interior Northwest, and will aid in the development of isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms across the region.

Across the Southeast, a cold front will continue moving southward
toward the Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. Generally disorganized
storms will be possible near the front, within a modestly unstable
and weakly sheared environment.

In parts of the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, weak moistening is
expected later in the day into Thursday night, in response to a
vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough moving southeastward out
of northwest Ontario. Buoyancy may become sufficient to support
sporadic elevated convection within a low-level warm-advection
regime Thursday night.

..Dean.. 10/07/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 080708
SWODY3
SPC AC 080707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist over the Plains on Friday. Meanwhile, a
shortwave upper trough will migrate east across the Great Lakes
while a second upper trough moves inland across the Pacific
Northwest.

A weak surface front will develop southeast across the Upper Midwest
as the upper trough ejects eastward. Some guidance suggests shallow,
low-topped convection may develop near/just behind the front across
the Great Lakes, though little lightning may accompany this
activity.

Moisture will increase northward across much of the western U.S.
ahead of the upper trough and in relation to Hurricane Priscilla,
which is forecast by NHC to approach the northern Baja peninsula on
Friday. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, but weak instability
will limit severe potential. Additional storms are possible across
parts of FL as a surface cold front develops south across the
Peninsula and into the Gulf. Poor lapse rates and weak
instability/shear will preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 081910
SWODY3
SPC AC 081909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough initially near the
Pacific Coast are forecast to move eastward Friday. In advance of
this system, NHC is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Priscilla to weaken
as it moves northward and approaches Baja California. Moisture
related to Priscilla will continue to stream northward into parts of
the Southwest and Great Basin. A combination of the eastward-moving
trough and northward-moving moisture will result in a broad region
of at least isolated storm potential from the Southwest/Great Basin
into parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies. While moderate to
locally strong mid/upper-level flow will overspread much of the
region, weak instability is currently expected to limit severe
potential.

Morning elevated convection related to a mid/upper-level low/trough
moving across the Great Lakes may continue early in the period from
the lower MO Valley vicinity into the Upper Midwest. Some moisture
initially transported northward by the Great Lakes system may advect
westward into parts of the central High Plains and support isolated
storm development within a post-frontal regime.

A gradually amplifying mid/upper-level trough across the Southeast
will support occasional storm development from the FL Peninsula to
near/just offshore of the Carolina coast. Poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally modest buoyancy and deep-layer shear are expected to
hamper organized-severe potential.

..Dean.. 10/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 090651
SWODY3
SPC AC 090650

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge over the Plains will become suppressed on Saturday as
a large-scale upper trough over the West develops east through the
period. Modest boundary-layer moisture from the Southwest into the
northern High Plains will support modest instability. With
increasing mid/upper southwesterly flow and forcing for ascent with
the ejecting upper trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
be possible. Poor lapse rates and limited instability will preclude
severe thunderstorm potential.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Lower MI
into OH beneath the core of an upper cyclone drifting south toward
the Ohio Valley. Instability will be meager, but cold temperatures
aloft and modest lapse rates should be sufficient from isolated
lightning with low-topped convection.

A mid/upper trough will also develop eastward across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic. While a cold front will have moved offshore
prior to Saturday, sufficient moisture will be in place on the back
side of a surface low off the coast of the Carolinas to support
modest instability. Any stronger instability, and more robust
convection will likely remain offshore, and severe storms are not
expected.

..Leitman.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 091905
SWODY3
SPC AC 091904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN TO THE CO PLATEAU...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon
across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the Colorado Plateau.

...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau...
A broad upper trough will shift east across the West as a basal
shortwave impulse ejects through the Great Basin on Saturday
afternoon/evening. This will be favorably timed with peak surface
heating across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the CO Plateau,
as a swath of strong 500-mb southwesterlies overspreads. Early
afternoon convective development should occur along and ahead of the
sharpening Pacific cold front as it pushes east. While overall
buoyancy will remain weak, owing to progressively poorer mid-level
lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler surface
temperatures/dew points to the northwest, the strong flow and
forcing for ascent should support development of at least a few
supercells. Isolated severe gusts should be the primary hazard, but
a brief tornado and marginally severe hail may occur as well.

..Grams.. 10/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 100712
SWODY3
SPC AC 100711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
An appreciable severe threat is not expected on Sunday or Sunday
night across the U.S.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front are
forecast to move through the north-central U.S. on Sunday. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm development
will likely take place along and ahead of the front from the upper
Mississippi Valley south-southwestward into the central Plains.
Instability is expected to be very weak ahead of the front, which
should limit the severe potential. Additional thunderstorms could
form over parts of the Desert Southwest Sunday afternoon. These
storms should form within a weakly unstable airmass, and are not
expected to reach severe limits. Elsewhere, a severe threat is not
forecast to develop over the continental U.S Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 101921
SWODY3
SPC AC 101920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The potential for severe thunderstorms appears negligible on Sunday
into Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone near the coastal Carolinas should gradually fill
as it drifts north, offshore of the Lower Mid-Atlantic. While a
strong storm is possible around 12Z Sunday in the Outer Banks
vicinity, weakening low-level wind fields and a highly confined
surface-based warm sector preclude a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.

Elevated convection is largely anticipated in the central states
with minimal surface-based instability. Convection across the
northern portion may persist in multiple rounds through the period
within the low-level warm conveyor attendant to a vigorous shortwave
trough moving across the northern Great Plains into south-central
Canada. Elevated convection across the southern portion should await
until Sunday evening/night, as remnants of TC Priscilla approach.
The latter will also support isolated to scattered surface-based
thunderstorms, peaking in the afternoon across the Southwest. Across
all regimes, weak instability and/or buoyancy preclude severe
highlights for this cycle.

..Grams.. 10/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 110714
SWODY3
SPC AC 110713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is not expected across the U.S. Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Mississippi Valley
on Monday, as a mid-level low pressure system moves southward across
the far eastern Pacific, just offshore from the West Coast.
Cyclonic southwesterly flow will in place across much of the western
U.S. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from far
southwest Oregon southward along the coast of northern and central
California. Thunderstorms will also be possible along and ahead of a
cold front from the southern Rockies and southern Plains into the
mid Missouri Valley. Additional storms could form along parts of the
Eastern Seaboard. Instability across the continental U.S. is
expected to be insufficient for severe storms Monday and Monday
night.

..Broyles.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 111920
SWODY3
SPC AC 111919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not yet forecast on Monday.

...Southwest...
A mid/upper low will move south along the OR to the northern CA
coast through the period. A broadening swath of 50+ kt 500-mb
southwesterlies to westerlies will overspread much of southern CA to
the eastern Great Basin and CO Plateau. Primary area of concern for
a potential level 1-MRGL risk in later outlooks is from the Four
Corners vicinity southward across eastern AZ to southern NM, where
the strengthening deep-layer flow regime would support lower-end
mid-level updraft rotation. But mid-level lapse rates appear likely
to remain weak, limiting MLCAPE. Depending on mesoscale details
related to the degree of diabatic surface heating, in the wake of
lingering overnight/morning clouds/rain, a corridor or two of
low-end severe highlights may become warranted.

...CA...
Guidance consensus indicate an intense mid-level jetlet should
impinge on the southern CA coast Monday night, to the south of the aforementioned northern CA low. This would foster a conditionally
favorable deep-layer wind profile for updraft rotation. However,
mid-level temperatures should remain warm enough to maintain shallow
convection where hodographs would be enlarged within the low-level
warm conveyor. Isolated, general thunderstorms should be confined
farther north where mid-level lapse rates are much steeper, and
meager buoyancy can still be maintained.

..Grams.. 10/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 120725
SWODY3
SPC AC 120724

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible on Tuesday from mid afternoon into early evening across
parts of New Mexico.

...New Mexico...
At mid-levels, a ridge will remain over the central U.S., as a low
moves eastward into the Intermountain West. Between these two
features, southwest flow will be in place from the Desert Southwest northeastward into the central and northern High Plains. At the
surface, a moist airmass will be located from the southern Plains
westward into the southern Rockies, where dewpoints are forecast to
be mostly in the 50s F. As surface heating takes place on Tuesday,
an axis of instability will develop over central New Mexico by
afternoon. Convection is expected to initiate in the higher terrain
by early afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms moving
northeastward into the lower elevations during the mid to late
afternoon. According to forecast soundings, MLCAPE is forecast to
reach the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the instability axis, with
0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 7.5 C/km. This could support a
threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail could also occur in
the stronger thunderstorm cores.

..Broyles.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 121925
SWODY3
SPC AC 121924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NM AND
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginal severe thunderstorms are possible across a
portion of southern California on Tuesday morning to midday, and New
Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening.

...Southern CA...
A low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday in the
central-south CA coastal area near/northwest of the Los Angeles
Basin. Most guidance suggests a belt of strong 850-700 mb winds will
persist through at least midday beneath an intense mid-level jetlet
that shifts from southern CA into the southern Great Basin.
Instability will be meager, to the south of the mid-level cold core
across central CA, amid weak mid-level lapse rates and rather
limited insolation. But with some signal for convection accompanying
the strong wind fields, a low-probability damaging wind and brief
waterspout to tornado threat appears warranted.

...NM...
Similar to prior days, weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a
limiting factor to updraft vigor. Nevertheless, a belt of moderately
enhanced mid-level south-southwesterlies will persist between the CA
cyclone and east TX anticyclone. Guidance differs on the degree of boundary-layer heating Tuesday across NM, but generally agree that
modest buoyancy should develop over south-central/southwest NM.
Scattered thunderstorms should peak during the latter half of the
afternoon from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains to the higher terrain
of northern Chihuahua. This southern activity may spread
north-northeast into south-central NM during the evening. An
isolated and marginal severe hail/wind threat remains possible.

..Grams.. 10/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe threat is expected to develop from Wednesday into
Wednesday night across parts of the southern Rockies, and in the
central High Plains. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
the primary threats.

...Southern Rockies...
A mid-level ridge will be located over the central U.S. on
Wednesday, as cyclonic mid-level flow remains in place from the
Desert Southwest into the central Rockies. Along the southeastern
periphery of the stronger flow, a north-to-south axis of instability
is forecast from southwest New Mexico into southern Colorado.
Warming surface temperatures during the day will aid convective
initiation in the higher terrain during the afternoon. Storms will
move northeastward into the lower elevations. Steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate deep-layer shear should be enough for an isolated
severe threat. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible with the stronger cores.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low will move northeastward through the Intermountain
West on Wednesday, as an associated 70 to 80 knot jet streak moves
through the Four Corners region. The exit region of the jet will
overspread the central High Plains Wednesday night, providing a
broad zone of large-scale ascent that will aid scattered
thunderstorm development. At the surface, a lee trough will develop
and steadily deepen in the central High Plains on Wednesday. A warm
front will move northward into western and central Nebraska as an east-southeast-to-west-northwest axis of low-level moisture becomes increasingly defined behind the front. Instability is forecast to
become maximized during the evening at the western end of the moist
axis over western Nebraska and far southeastern Wyoming. This pocket
of instability is forecast to move northward into western South
Dakota by late evening. In addition to the instability, deep-layer
shear will steadily increase across the central High Plains as the
jet streak approaches, making conditions supportive of an isolated
severe threat. Cells that develop within the area of strongest
instability may have potential for marginally severe wind gusts and
hail.

..Broyles.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 131929
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 132132
SWODY3
SPC AC 132131

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 132259
SWODY3
SPC AC 132257

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0557 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...

CORRECTED FOR IMPROPER LINE GROUPINGS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday across parts of the
southern Rockies, and over the central High Plains. Areas of hail
will be the primary risk, with sporadic strong gusts possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper low over UT will pivot northeastward toward the northern
Rockies, with a belt of strong mid and high level flow moving across
the Rockies and into the central and northern High Plains by
Thursday morning. Low pressure will develop over eastern CO and WY
during the afternoon, and will move into the Dakotas overnight.

Surface moisture return will be limited due to a large area of high
pressure over the Great Lakes, with poor trajectories extending
south into the northern Gulf of America. However, cooling aloft with
the upper trough and an existing plume of midlevel moisture will aid destabilization. By late afternoon, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
forecast over central NM, and from northeast CO into western NE.
Early day precip may hamper destabilization in parts of the southern
Rockies, but a few storms could produce marginal hail.

Farther north into CO/WY/NE, isolated severe storms producing hail
appear more likely as instability is more likely to be at or above
1000 J/kg, along with long hodographs. Further, an increasing
southerly low-level jet may aid storm longevity into the evening
into western SD.

..Jewell.. 10/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 140727
SWODY3
SPC AC 140726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Central High Plains...
A mid-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the northern
High Plains on Thursday, as an associated trough passes through the Intermountain West. Southwest flow will remain over much of the
Great Plains, as a ridge moves eastward away from the region. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the
central High Plains. Strong low-level convergence is forecast to
develop along the front during the late afternoon, being conducive
for thunderstorm development. Forecast soundings near the
instability axis in the late afternoon have MUCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg with low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range.
In addition, effective shear is forecast to be in the 50 to 60 knot
range. This should support marginally severe hail with rotating
cells that develop. Model forecasts suggest that most of the
convection will be behind the boundary, which will be limiting
factor. The hail threat is expected to peak in a relatively narrow
window in the late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PART OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with marginally severe hail will be
possible on Thursday in the late afternoon across parts of the
central High Plains.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough extending from MT into AZ will eject northeastward
toward the northern Plains on Thursday, with a leading midlevel
speed max moving northeastward out of CO. Through 00Z, a surface low
will pivot northeastward across the Dakotas with a warm front from
eastern ND into northwest MN. Meanwhile, a cold front will extend
southwestward into eastern CO. Ahead of this front, southerly winds
across the Plains will maintain areas of low to mid 50s F dewpoints.

Early in the day, an expansive area of rain and elevated
thunderstorms is expected in the warm advection zone from MT into ND
and northern MN. Though not severe, small hail cannot be ruled out
with some of the stronger elevated cores.

As the warm sector develops to the south, a small area of larger
instability is forecast from eastern CO into western KS and
southwest NE near the front/wind shift. Even so, MLCAPE values are
likely to remain below 1000 J/kg. However, heating near the front
should allow for scattered cells to develop, and favorable supercell
wind profiles will favor hail production.

..Jewell.. 10/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 150723
SWODY3
SPC AC 150722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be
possible Friday into Friday night from the southern and central
Plains into the lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the central Rockies on
Friday, as southwest flow remains in place over much of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward across the central Plains as moisture
advection takes place over the southern Plains and Ark-La-Tex.
Low-level convergence along and just ahead of the front will lead to thunderstorm development by early Friday evening from Iowa into
northwestern Missouri and eastern Kansas. Additional storm formation
is expected in southern Kansas and western Oklahoma during the
evening.

By early Friday evening, NAM forecast soundings have MLCAPE
increasing into the 800 to 1200 J/kg range along a
southwest-to-northeast axis of instability from western Oklahoma
into southern and eastern Kansas. Along this corridor, 0-6 km shear
is forecast to be near 40 knots. This should support an isolated
severe threat, with hail and severe wind gusts possible. One
limiting factor is that lapse rates are forecast to remain weak.
This should help to marginalize any severe threat. As the low-level
jet ramps up and moisture advection continues, the severe potential
will likely be maintained into the overnight period.

..Broyles.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 151905
SWODY3
SPC AC 151905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
Friday into Friday night from the southern and central Plains into
the lower Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A cyclonic flow regime will persist from central Canada into the
north-central CONUS, with a leading wave moving quickly out of the
northern Plains during the day on Friday. South of this initial
wave, a belt of moderate midlevel southwesterlies will extend from
the upper MS Valley into the central Plains and northwest Mexico, on
the west side of an upper ridge extending from the lower Great Lakes
across the OH/TN Valleys. Overnight and into Saturday, a strong
upper jet will dig into the northern Rockies, which with large-scale
height falls extending into the northern and central Plains.

At the surface, low pressure associated with the initial wave will
move northeastward across MB/ON, with a cold front from the upper MS
Valley into the central and southern Plains. This boundary may
become nearly stationary from KS into western OK, as southerly winds
ahead of it maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints. Heating should
result in MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, though mid/upper lapse rates will
not be very steep. Still, favorable time of day and sufficient shear
could support a few cells capable of marginal hail during the
afternoon.

Overnight into Saturday morning, 30-40 kt southwest 850 mb flow will
help transport a plume of mid 60s F dewpoints out of TX and into
eastern OK. While near the end of the Day 3 period, this late
arrival of moisture could potentially bolster any ongoing activity.

..Jewell.. 10/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 160728
SWODY3
SPC AC 160727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE ARK-LA-TEX...OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A threat for
tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and hail is expected to develop from
the late morning into the overnight.

...Ark-La-Tex/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on
Saturday, as an associated jet streak moves into the Ozarks.
Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing just ahead of the
trough at the start of the period, from eastern Oklahoma into
central Missouri. To the south and east of this activity, moderate
instability is expected to develop during the morning over much of
the Ark-La-Tex and Ozarks. As surface temperatures warm across the
moist sector, convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase.
An MCS appears likely to form during the afternoon, with a
relatively large cluster of storms moving eastward across southern
Missouri, Arkansas and northern Louisiana. The MCS is expected to
become organized and pose a severe threat across the region.

Ahead of the MCS, forecast soundings during the mid afternoon have
MLCAPE peaking between 1500 and 2000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the
50 to 55 knot range. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
increase to about 250 m2/s2 near the low-level jet in the late
afternoon. This should support supercell development with tornado
potential. Storms that remain discrete and interact with the
low-level jet will have the greatest potential for tornadoes.
Supercells should also be capable of large hail. Once the MCS
becomes organized, a transition to linear mode could occur. If this
were to happen, then the wind-damage threat would increase, and
could become the greatest threat. Any severe threat should persist
through the evening, and possibly into the early overnight period,
as the MCS moves eastward across the central Gulf Coast states and
Tennessee Valley.

...Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A mid-level trough will move across the Great Plains on Saturday, as
a belt of southwesterly flow remains from the mid Mississippi Valley
into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, and Great
Lakes region. A corridor of low-level moisture will be present ahead
of the front with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F. This
should allow for weak destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorms
will develop along parts of the front, and move eastward into the
moist airmass. The models differ markedly on how much instability
will develop across this moist airmass, which adds considerable
uncertainty into the forecast. In spite of this, the combination of
instability and moderate deep-layer shear should be great enough for
an isolated severe threat. Line segments would be favored to produce
damaging wind gusts. A few rotating storms will also be possible.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 161904
SWODY3
SPC AC 161903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. A
few tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will be possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the degree of severe storm
potential on Saturday, with a range of model solutions regarding
trough speed, early day precipitation and air mass quality. At the
very least, a broad Slight Risk remains reasonable given these
uncertainties.

On the large scale, a southern-stream wave moving across the
southern Plains is expected to phase with another system digging
rapidly southeastward out of the northern Rockies, resulting in a
deepening, progressive trough moving across the Plains and MS
Valley. A plume of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will already be in
place from TX into eastern OK early on Saturday, with low 60s F
extending northward into parts of the Midwest ahead of a developing
surface low from IL into IN.

While low-level moistening combined with cooling aloft will
generally lead to increasing instability, several models indicate
early/ongoing thunderstorm potential roughly from OK into MO and IL.
At the very least, this activity should generally become more
organized as the cold front strengthens with increasing large scale
ascent, leading to wind damage potential. If the less-amplified
solution verifies, potentially strong instability could build during
the day, with more of a supercell risk along with tornado/hail
potential.

In deference to the latest model solutions, probabilities for
Saturday have been expanded a bit eastward.

..Jewell.. 10/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 170731
SWODY3
SPC AC 170730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with a threat mainly for damaging winds are possible
over parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachians Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong neutral to slightly negative tilt upper trough over the OH
Valley and Great Lakes is forecast to continue intensifying as it
moves quickly eastward Sunday. At the base of the trough, a 90+ kt
jet streak will lift northward into the upper OH Valley and
Northeast deepening a surface low over the Great Lakes and eastern
Canada. Strong southerly winds ahead of the low will support a
modestly moist air mass from eastern OH/KY into western PA and WV. A
cold front expected to move eastward with the low will serve as a
focus for thunderstorm potential Sunday morning through Sunday
evening.

...OH Valley and Appalachians...
A squall line is likely to be ongoing at the start of the period
from central/eastern OH into northern KY ahead of the front and
deepening surface low. Strong ascent from the trough/jet streak
should maintain this shallow convective line into portions of PA/WV
by early afternoon. With upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints and only
modest heating, buoyancy appears limited. However, the strong flow
aloft should still support a risk for damaging gusts. Backed flow
ahead of the surface low will favor large low-level shear which
could support embedded rotation with the potential for a brief
tornado or two. Storms will gradually weaken with eastward extent as
available buoyancy wanes into the evening.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast...
At the start of the period, a few storms may be ongoing along the
front as it continues east/southeastward across southern MS/AL and
western FL. With marginal buoyancy and on the southern fringes of
the stronger flow aloft, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled
out, but convection should weaken through the morning before moving
offshore.

The cold front will continues eastward through the remainder of the
day with remnant showers and cloud cover likely ahead of it. Still,
some heating and destabilization is possible across the Southeast
and southern Appalachians. However, weak subsidence is expected over
much of the region as the primary upper trough and jet streak begin
to lift away to the north. This currently suggests limited
redevelopment will occur along the front Sunday afternoon, though
there remains substantial uncertainty. While isolated storms cannot
be ruled out, confidence remains too low for severe probabilities.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 171930
SWODY3
SPC AC 171929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
APPALACHAINS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday from parts of the Ohio
Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes and northern Appalachian
regions.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a negative-tilt and deep upper trough will move quickly
across the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley region, and into the central
to northern Appalachians by evening. This trough will bring strong
wind fields across much of the northeastern CONUS, with potential
for locally damaging gusts.

A surface low over lower MI is forecast to move north/northeastward
into Canada during the day, with a cold front extending southward
across OH and into KY and TN Sunday morning. This front will race
eastward through the period, and will interact with a plume of 50s F
dewpoints and area of daytime heating. Only weak instability is
forecast along the cold front, but substantial height falls and
low-level lift focused along the front should lead to a narrow band
of low-topped convection. Much of this activity may be without
lightning, but could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

Farther south into southern AL/GA, scattered thunderstorms may
remain along the front early in the day, but a weakening trend is
expected due to rapid drying from the west and increasing midlevel
subsidence.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 171932
SWODY3
SPC AC 171931

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

CORRECTED FOR HEADER

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind damage may occur on Sunday from parts of the Ohio
Valley toward the Lower Great Lakes and northern Appalachian
regions.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a negative-tilt and deep upper trough will move quickly
across the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley region, and into the central
to northern Appalachians by evening. This trough will bring strong
wind fields across much of the northeastern CONUS, with potential
for locally damaging gusts.

A surface low over lower MI is forecast to move north/northeastward
into Canada during the day, with a cold front extending southward
across OH and into KY and TN Sunday morning. This front will race
eastward through the period, and will interact with a plume of 50s F
dewpoints and area of daytime heating. Only weak instability is
forecast along the cold front, but substantial height falls and
low-level lift focused along the front should lead to a narrow band
of low-topped convection. Much of this activity may be without
lightning, but could produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

Farther south into southern AL/GA, scattered thunderstorms may
remain along the front early in the day, but a weakening trend is
expected due to rapid drying from the west and increasing midlevel
subsidence.

..Jewell.. 10/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 180729
SWODY3
SPC AC 180728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper trough over the Northeast US is expected to mature and
transition into a closed low as a powerful mid-level jet streak
ejects over the Northeast Monday. A second strong trough will also
intensify over the Upper Midwest, deepening a broad surface cyclone
across the Great Lakes. To the east, a secondary surface cyclone
will develop over the western St. Lawrence Valley at the apex of the
surging cold front before merging with the broader low farther west.
As the lows deepen and the front moves quickly eastward across the
Atlantic Coast and across FL, southerly winds will transport a
modestly moist air mass (low 50s F surface dewpoints) northward
across southern New England.

One or two damaging gusts remain possible ahead of the rapidly
moving cold front over parts of southern New England early Monday.
Confined to a narrow warm sector with modest moisture but strong
low-level winds, a shallow convective band along the front may be
capable of sporadic damaging gusts before the front moves offshore
by early afternoon. The primary limiting factor remains the degree
of destabilization ahead of the shallow convective band. Current
guidance shows little insatiability and poor lapse rates suggesting
very limited severe potential.

..Lyons.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 181918
SWODY3
SPC AC 181917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the Mid-Atlantic will lift northeast across New
England on Monday. Further west, another upper trough over the
Rockies will develop east across the Plains to the MS Valley.
Surface high pressure will be centered over the Southeast behind a
prior cold frontal passage. Surface cyclogenesis is forecast across
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity with the approach of the
upper trough. This will result in some increased south/southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of a surface cold front sweeping southeast
across the Plains to the Upper Midwest, but Gulf moisture return
will remain scant. This will preclude much destabilization, but
cooling aloft may be sufficient for isolated lightning flashes
across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

Additional thunderstorms are possible across New England as a
surface low occludes/weakens and lifts northeast into Quebec.
Low-topped convection within the warm conveyor ahead of a surface
front may produce isolated lightning flashes through the daytime.
The surface front will arc southwest offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic/Southeast coast into northern/central FL. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible across the southern FL Peninsula amid moist/weakly unstable boundary-layer. Weak vertical shear and drying
aloft will preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 190724
SWODY3
SPC AC 190723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes South
Florida, and Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms are
not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper low over the East Coast will weaken as it phases with a
second upper trough moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast. A
cold front will stretch from the surface low over the Great Lakes to
the central Gulf Coast and move southeastward through the day. Cool
mid-level temperatures beneath the broad low will support very weak
buoyancy and some shallow storms across the Great Lakes/Upper OH
valley Tuesday afternoon.

Southwest of the primary upper low, subsidence behind a strong
northwesterly mid-level jet will strengthen post-frontal high
pressure over the central US. Offshore flow associated with the high
pressure is expected to scour surface moisture over much of the
eastern CONUS outside of south FL and the central Gulf Coast.
Isolated storms are possible along typical sea breeze boundaries,
though with only weak ascent and little to no vertical shear. Thus,
severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS Tuesday.

..Lyons.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 191912
SWODY3
SPC AC 191910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Lakes, South
Florida, and the northwest Gulf Coast regions Tuesday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

A broad upper trough will envelop much of the eastern half of the
CONUS on Tuesday. A surface low will migrate across the Great Lakes,
with a trailing cold front developing southeast across TX and the
much of the Southeast and Eastern Seaboard. Rich boundary layer
moisture across coastal TX into LA will be in place ahead of the
front, aiding in weak to moderate destabilization through peak
heating. Stronger large-scale ascent will be focused well to the
northeast, but ascent along the front may support isolated
thunderstorms. Vertical shear will generally be weak, but a couple
of stronger storms could produce gusty winds. More robust updrafts
will likely be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates/warm midlevel
temps.

Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley beneath the cold core of the
upper low/trough, and across south FL within a moist and unstable
environment. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 10/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 200730
SWODY3
SPC AC 200729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong and broad upper low will dominate the mid-level flow
pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS as it moves slowly from
the Great Lakes into southern Canada Wednesday. Behind it, strong
northwesterly flow aloft and weak ridging will then develop over the
central US as a surface cold front moves off the Atlantic coast. The
offshore flow should keep dry and stable conditions in place for
much of the country with the exception of south Florida and parts of
New England. Shallow moisture associated with remnant onshore flow
east of the upper low across New England could support isolated
low-topped storms Wednesday afternoon. However, buoyancy will be
very weak, and storm coverage limited, such that severe potential is
low.
To the west, a smaller southern stream upper low will move onshore
from the Pacific into the Southwest late Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday. Cooling mid-level temperatures and weak moisture
advection from the Gulf of California could support isolated storms
over the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Though with weak
buoyancy severe potential appears very limited.

..Lyons.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 201904
SWODY3
SPC AC 201903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will remain dominant across the northeast states on
Wednesday, while a shortwave trough moves across southern CA and
into the desert southwest. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
beneath the cold upper low over parts of New England, and along the
immediate leeward shores of the lower Great Lakes. No severe storms
are anticipated.

Other scattered thunderstorms will be possible in a plume of
mid-level moisture ahead of the western trough - mainly from
southern UT into parts of CO/NM. Again, no severe storms are
currently expected.

..Hart.. 10/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 210731
SWODY3
SPC AC 210730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds are
possible Thursday and Thursday Night across portions of the southern
Plains.

...Southern Plains...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will move from the Southwest over
the southern Rockies helping to deepen an elongated lee low over the
adjacent High Plains Thursday and Thursday night. As the surface low
matures, southeasterly low-level flow will intensify, drawing a warm
front northward from west-central TX toward the KS/OK border. Modest
moisture return is expected with the front and to the east of
trailing lee trough/Pacific front over eastern NM and west TX.
Moisture depth is likely to be shallow in the wake the frontal
passage earlier this week. Still, advection of colder temperatures
aloft in conjunction with at least some moistening of the boundary
layer amid diurnal heating should allow for destabilization of the
air mass (SBCAPE ~ 1000 J/kg) late Thursday into early Friday.

While buoyancy may be somewhat marginal and remains dependent on the
degree of return moisture, isolated storms could develop along the
lee trough from far eastern NM into the TX Panhandle Thursday
afternoon and early evening. Increasingly strong veering wind
profiles would favor some storm organization into supercells or
multicell clusters. Hail and damaging gusts would be possible with
any strong to severe storms able to persist.

Overnight, mid-level height falls are forecast to continue spreading
eastward, aiding in the development of a 40-50 kt southerly
low-level jet. Strong isentropic ascent should result in scattered
to numerous thunderstorms along and north of the lifting warm
frontal zone from central OK into southern KS. Modest elevated
buoyancy (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear
could support isolated severe storms with hail as the primary risk
overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 211927
SWODY3
SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NM
TO CENTRAL OK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible beginning late afternoon
Thursday across parts of the Southwest and continuing into Thursday
night over the southern Great Plains.

...Southwest/Southern Great Plains...
A compact shortwave trough over the Lower CO Valley will reach the
southern Rockies by early Friday, as a separate impulse moves across
northern Baja/Gulf of CA. This will reinforce a positive-tilt
orientation to the broader trough and support only a weak lee
surface cyclone over the southern High Plains.

Another day of low-level moisture return from the TX Coastal Plain
should yield a plume of moderate buoyancy reaching the Permian Basin
to southwest OK by Thursday afternoon. More limited moisture is
anticipated farther north/west, supporting weak buoyancy. But this
will be compensated by stronger large-scale ascent accompanying the
leading shortwave impulse. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over
the Four Corners by mid-afternoon, with isolated storms arcing
southeast to southward over central to eastern NM. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will exist for a few supercells as storms mature in
the late afternoon, capable of producing isolated severe hail/wind.
A mesoscale corridor of more concentrated supercell potential may
evolve downstream on Thursday evening as storms impinge on the
aforementioned moderate buoyancy plume in west TX. Otherwise,
increasingly widespread elevated convection should occur on Thursday
night from west TX through much of OK. This should foster a rather
messy mode, with transient supercells/semi-organized clustering
relegated to the southern portion of the broader convective plume.
An isolated severe threat may persist in this regime overnight.

..Grams.. 10/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 220731
SWODY3
SPC AC 220730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across portions of the southern
Plains Friday and Friday night.

...Southern Plains...
The upper trough over the Southwest will continue eastward becoming increasingly positively tilted and weakening with time. Stronger
flow aloft will become more meridional across parts of eastern NM,
west TX and extending into south-central OK. Southerly low-level
flow will continue to transport sufficient moisture northward across
much of the southern Plains ahead of a weak lee low and Pacific
front.

Numerous elevated storms are likely to be ongoing early Friday
across the eastern TX Panhandle and parts of central OK. Continued
low-level warm air advection should reinforce an east-west oriented
effective boundary south of this activity expected to be in place
across the Red River Valley vicinity. South of this feature, at
least modest heating and destabilization is possible within the
plume of rich low-level moisture from west TX into southwest OK.
Ascent from the approaching trough should result in scattered
thunderstorm development east of the lee trough/Pacific front by
early afternoon. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will support
sufficient vertical shear for isolated organized storms, including
some supercells or clusters. Steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead
of the upper trough could support some hail and damaging wind
potential with the strongest storms.

The severe threat should gradually shift east/northeast into the
into the evening and first part of the overnight hours. Buoyancy is
expected to be less robust with east/northeast extent. Still, a
nocturnal low-level jet and consolidation of thunderstorms into one
or more clusters may support isolated severe potential across
southern OK and north TX overnight into early Saturday.

..Lyons.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221924
SWODY3
SPC AC 221923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible, centered on west
to central Texas, from mid-afternoon Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A pair of impulses, embedded within a positive-tilt shortwave trough
from southwest CO to the northern Gulf of CA, should gradually move
east and become centered over the southern High Plains by early
Saturday. An upper-level jetlet attendant to the basal impulse will
shift across northern Mexico, supporting strengthening large-scale
ascent across west TX on Friday evening/night.

...TX vicinity...
Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be ongoing at 12Z
Friday from the Red River Valley into KS, with more
isolated/diminishing activity trailing southwestward into parts of
west TX. This early-day activity will aid in reinforcing the surface
baroclinic zone near the Red River. Adequate boundary-layer heating
will occur to its south through west, fostering a broad plume of
moderate buoyancy after another day of low-level moisture
enrichment. Scattered thunderstorms should develop by mid to late
afternoon along the western extent of this plume from the TX
Panhandle towards the Pecos Valley/Trans-Pecos. This activity will
become increasingly widespread during the evening into Friday night
as the aforementioned large-scale ascent strengthens.

The most probable corridor for supercells with large hail appears to
be across the southern portion of west TX where moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer shear are anticipated. Multiple convectively parameterized models along with available CAMs strongly
suggest upscale growth into a large MCS should occur across the
Edwards Plateau to Big Country vicinity on Friday night. This should
support at least an isolated/marginal severe wind/hail threat
persisting into the early morning Saturday towards central TX.

..Grams.. 10/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 230731
SWODY3
SPC AC 230730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous storms with isolated severe potential are
likely over parts of southern and eastern Texas and western
Louisiana Saturday.

...Southern/eastern TX to western LA...
The upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will continue eastward
Saturday, overspreading East TX and LA before reaching the lower MS
Valley by early Sunday. Embedded within the broader trough, a
shortwave feature will move out of northern Mexico and across the
northwest Gulf coast with an accompanying basal speed max. A weak
surface low over OK will drag a cold front eastward over central TX
while strong ascent from the upper trough and cold front will
overspread a plume of rich low-level moisture but modest lapse rates
from the Gulf Coast to OK.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected early
Saturday as one or more convective complexes from the previous day
will likely be ongoing over eastern TX/OK. Significant uncertainty
remains with respect to diurnal destabilization and the resulting
severe threat across northeast TX, southern OK and northwestern LA.
Continued southeasterly low-level flow and the arrival of stronger
forcing from the approaching trough suggests multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely through Saturday evening. Relatively
stronger heating on the southwestern flank of this activity over
southern and coastal TX could allow for more robust surface-based
buoyancy to develop by early afternoon. With sufficient veering for
organized storms amid the strong low-level warm advection regime, at
least an isolated severe risk is likely.

The primary uncertainty this outlook cycle is the potential for a
messy convective mode and sagging outflow to limit the surface-based
warm sector over southeast TX. Relatively strong low and mid-level
shear ahead of the upper trough could support supercells or bowing
clusters with damaging gust and tornado potential. Will introduce 5%
severe probabilities for now given the uncertainty from antecedent
convection. However, enlarging low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200
m2/s2) and the potential for stronger destabilization may
necessitate higher outlook probabilities in subsequent updates.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 231926
SWODY3
SPC AC 231925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TX
AND SOUTHWEST LA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, centered on southeast Texas to southwest
Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper trough will continue to gradually move east across the
southern Great Plains. The primary of multiple embedded shortwave
impulses is consistently progged to eject through the basal portion
of the trough, yielding a neutral to negative-tilt by Saturday
night.

...TX/LA...
Widespread convection is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday with
an MCS across east TX and trailing convection along its outflow into south-central TX. A threat for isolated damaging winds and a tornado
or two should persist into midday until the leading edge of the MCS
outflow shifts offshore of the northwest Gulf. While the southward
penetration of trailing outflow in south-central TX is uncertain,
airmass recovery should occur along and to the north of this
boundary as it slowly ebbs back north ahead of the aforementioned
basal shortwave impulse. Strengthening mid to upper flow will foster
a conditional threat for supercells during the late afternoon to
evening, within a corridor along and north of the outflow. Potential
will exist for upscale growth into another MCS with bowing clusters
on Saturday night, similarly tracking towards the northwest Gulf
Coast. This setup appears supportive of a level 2-SLGT risk for
mainly hail west evolving to mainly wind downstream. There is
concern for an overnight/early morning Sunday tornado threat with a strengthening low-level jet across the Sabine Valley into LA as the
mid/upper jetlet impinges. The degree of surface-based instability
in this region late D3 will be crucial to how robust tornado
potential may become.

..Grams.. 10/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 240728
SWODY3
SPC AC 240727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through midday Sunday
over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is
possible late, though uncertainty is high.

...Central Gulf Coast...
The upper trough over east TX is forecast to gradually weaken while
moving eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast. An
MCS is likely to be ongoing early Sunday over parts of the lower MS
Valley. Accompanied by a weak surface low, this convective complex
should gradually move eastward with a continued isolated damaging
gust threat across southern LA and MS. The MCS should begin to
weaken by midday as it outpaces the surface-based warm sector
farther east.
Isolated strong storms may redevelop over adjacent Gulf waters late
Sunday into early Monday morning aided by onshore flow associated
with a modest low-level jet expected to develop across southern AL
and the western FL Panhandle. It remains unclear if the more
unstable surface-based warm sector attendant to a maritime front
will move inland in the wake of the earlier MCS/outflow. Should it
do so, supercells with isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado
potential will be possible over southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle into early Monday.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 241929
SWODY3
SPC AC 241928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible through Sunday morning
over the central Gulf Coast. A second round of strong storms is
possible by Sunday afternoon, though the severe threat appears more conditional.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will continue to traverse the Gulf Coast while a
broader upper trough continues to overspread the Interior West on
Sunday. Surface troughing will promote continued low-level
warm-air/moisture advection ahead of ongoing thunderstorms over the
Lower MS Valley Sunday morning into afternoon, where adequate
vertical wind shear will support an isolated severe threat.

...Lower MS Valley...
A cluster or loosely organized line of thunderstorms will be ongoing
at the start of the period (i.e. 12Z Sunday), preceded by mid to
upper 60s F dewpoints beneath a departing 30-40 kt southerly
low-level jet. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg amid 40+ kts of effective
bulk shear and modestly sized/curved low-level hodographs (around
200 m2/s2 effective SRH) will precede the ongoing storms, supporting
an isolated severe gust/tornado threat through Sunday morning,
warranting Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities. Some airmass
modification of the free warm sector is possible behind the initial
round of storms Sunday afternoon, particularly from central MS into
far eastern LA. Should diurnal heating become abundant (which is
highly questionable at the moment), relatively robust initiation of
new convection is possible. Even so, the departing low-level jet to
the east suggests that any materializing severe threat will likely
be isolated, with a couple of severe gusts being the main threat,
though a tornado cannot be ruled out with the afternoon storms.

..Squitieri.. 10/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 250720
SWODY3
SPC AC 250720

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Monday.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving eastward over the Gulf Coast is forecast to
weaken Monday as a second upstream trough and northwesterly jet
strengthen over the Plains. To the east, a broad mid-level low will
deepen over New England as troughing consolidates across the eastern
US. This will favor a strong and mostly zonal northwesterly flow
regime over the central and western US. A weak surface low along a
stalled front across the northeast Gulf Coast will begin moving
southward in response to the increased northwesterly flow aloft.
This will drag the front southward through the day and eventually
offshore overnight into Tuesday.

...Southern GA into Fl...
Widespread stratiform precipitation and isolated thunderstorms are
likely to be ongoing north of the front early Monday, limiting
diurnal destabilization and reinforcing the southward motion of the
front. While additional elevated storms are possible through the
afternoon with increased isentropic ascent, the increasingly muted
buoyancy suggests little if any severe risk with this elevated
convection.

An isolated stronger storm capable of damaging gusts remains
possible across the northern FL Peninsula where enhanced westerly
flow aloft will overspread weak to moderate buoyancy amid typically
moist surface conditions. However, poor mid-level lapse rates
(around 6-6.5 C/km), limited forcing for ascent and eventual
undercutting by the sagging cold front lends low confidence in any
sustained severe risk Monday.

..Lyons.. 10/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 251931
SWODY3
SPC AC 251930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected over parts of the Southeast on Monday,
with minimal severe storm risk.

...Discussion...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will continue eastward across the
Southeast on Monday, with a weak surface low moving from the
northeast Gulf across northern FL. Along and south of the boundary,
a moist and marginally unstable air mass will remain with perhaps
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE during the day. Although strong high level
winds will exist with this wave, winds below 700 mb are forecast to
be weak. Elevated storms are likely north of boundary early, with
scattered daytime storms across the FL Peninsula. Marginal
deep-layer shear and lapse rates suggest minimal severe risk, but
perhaps a few strong gusts may occur during the afternoon.

Elsewhere, an upper trough amplification will occur late in the
period across the High Plains, with an intense speed max and cooling
aloft into the central Plains. Despite minimal low-level moisture,
lift along a developing cold front and cold midlevel temperatures
will favor a few thunderstorms late. Small hail cannot be ruled out
due to such cold profiles aloft.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260728
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough over the central Plains is forecast to
intensify as a powerful mid-level speed max approaches from the
northwest. The trough will deepen and move eastward, settling over
the mid MS Valley as it merges with a broader low over the eastern
US. In response to the deepening trough, an elongated surface low
will develop along a strong cold front as it begins to surge south
over the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a secondary surface
cyclone over the Red River will consolidate and deepen as it matures
across the mid MS Valley.

Southerly low-level flow ahead of the deepening surface cyclone may
allow for some modest moisture return over parts of the TX South
Plains early Tuesday. However, in the wake of the earlier frontal
passage, moisture depth is likely to be limited. Weak buoyancy may
develop along the front as the upper trough and cool mid-level
temperatures overlap the modestly moist air mass. While isolated
storms are possible along the front over southern TX, rapid
undercutting and limited buoyancy suggests little if any severe
risk. Otherwise, isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the
cold front over parts of FL and the Outer Banks. The limited overlap
of favorable buoyancy and shear will again support little if any
severe risk through early Wednesday.

..Lyons.. 10/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261927
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, an intense speed max will dive into the Plains, with a
deepening upper low moving from the central Plains at 00Z into the
lower MS Valley into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front
will surge southward across the Plains, nearing the TX Coast by 00Z.
Southerly winds ahead of this front will briefly result in a moist
and unstable air mass over parts of eastern TX during the day.
However, forecast boundary layer moisture profiles will be shallow
over much of the warm sector, except perhaps during the afternoon
across southeast TX.

As such, the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be during the
late afternoon toward the TX Coast, prior to the front moving
offshore. Forecast soundings indicate generally poor midlevel lapse
rates, and substantial dry air aloft, which may temper storm
severity. Otherwise, elevated instability may develop across parts
of LA, AR, and MS, with scattered non-severe thunderstorms possible.

Elsewhere, elevated instability may remain over eastern NC as a
weakening upper wave moves over the area, with moist easterly winds
wrapping moisture westward north of an offshore surface low.

..Jewell.. 10/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270729
SWODY3
SPC AC 270728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low over the central US will continue to intensify
before merging with a broader trough over the eastern US Wednesday
and Wednesday night. A surface low over the Mid South will deepen
and move toward the Atlantic Coast as a strong cold front continues
to push offshore through the Gulf and Southeast. High pressure will
develop within the post-frontal air mass supporting widespread
offshore flow and drier conditions across much of the CONUS.

The only exception will be across far south FL and the immediate Mid
Atlantic coast where remaining southerly winds will support modest
surface moisture for part of the day. However, the relatively
shallow nature of the moisture and mid-level drying/subsidence
southeast of the jet max will overspread the area ahead of the
advancing front. This should limit thunderstorm potential before the
cold front scours the remaining moisture offshore. Thus,
thunderstorm chances currently appear to be below 10% over the
CONUS.

..Lyons.. 10/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 271915
SWODY3
SPC AC 271914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little to no thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will deepen on Wednesday as it swings northeastward out
of AR and toward the upper OH Valley late. This low will be within a
large upper trough which will amplify across much of the Southeast
and toward the Mid Atlantic into Thursday.

Cool northerly surface winds will exist over much of the central US,
with a somewhat broad area of low pressure over the Southeast ahead
of the upper trough. A cold front will be moving across the northern
Gulf early Wednesday, with a minimal moisture plume perhaps
extending northeastward toward the FL Panhandle. There may be
scattered showers along this front, but relatively poor lapse rate
profiles suggest any convection would be weak and perhaps shallow.

Otherwise, the air mass ahead of the upper trough should remain
mostly stable, the exception being the possibility of highly
elevated instability wrapping northwestward across the Mid Atlantic.
While a lightning flash cannot be ruled out late Wednesday into
Wednesday night in that region, the overall threat of thunderstorms
or any substantial lightning appears minimal.

..Jewell.. 10/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur from eastern North Carolina into parts of
the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. Severe potential appears low at this
time.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt
across the eastern CONUS on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave
trough and jet maximum dig southeastward across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest. A surface low initially near the central
Appalachians is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward toward
New England. A cold front will sweep through the Carolinas and Mid
Atlantic during the day, and move eastward across parts of New
England by Thursday night.

...Eastern NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic...
Extensive precipitation with embedded thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing Thursday morning from eastern NC into parts of the Mid
Atlantic. While at least low 60s F dewpoints may advance inland in
conjunction with the deepening surface low, weak lapse rates and
widespread cloudiness/precipitation are expected to limit
surface-based destabilization. The most aggressive guidance with
respect to destabilization (such as the NAM/RRFS) would support some
potential for organized convection along/ahead of the cold front
from the morning into at least the early afternoon, in the presence
of strong deep-layer flow/shear. However, the bulk of guidance
depicts very limited destabilization, and uncertainty regarding the
development of sufficient instability precludes severe probabilities
at this time.

..Dean.. 10/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)