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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0920

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 21 15:34:45 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 211534
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 211533=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-211800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0920
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1033 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

    Areas affected...parts of southern Georgia into northern Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211533Z - 211800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development appears
    underway. Gradually, a couple of intensifying storms may pose a
    risk for marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging
    wind gusts through 2-4 PM EDT.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for ascent remains a bit unclear, but
    scattered thunderstorm initiation appears underway within a broadly
    confluent pre-frontal low-level regime. Insolation within a
    seasonably moist boundary layer, coupled with subtle mid-level
    height falls on the southern fringe of the westerlies, are
    contributing to weakening of inhibition, as CAPE increases in excess
    of 1500 J/kg in the presence of modestly steep lapse rates.=20=20

    Deep-layer westerly flow and shear through lower/mid-levels appears
    modest, but 50+ kt flow near and above 300 mb may enhance stronger
    storms as they deepen in excess of 45-50 thousand feet AGL with
    additional destabilization. Gradually, a couple of these cells may
    become capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, and a
    few strong downbursts with potentially damaging surface gusts
    through 18-20Z.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wPKIEHG3mQ7egxygTbpwulAauidJNS8QpZ6JDlnmM1GC-8XcDY0fuFCfpp686kC-YvpYa4_X= 1LZTktjnAO5YxZlvaU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 30888489 31518216 31138146 30178169 29678476 30198601
    30888489=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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