ACUS11 KWNS 210917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210917=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-211015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0919
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0417 AM CDT Wed May 21 2025

Areas affected...southern Alabama into west-central/south-west
Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 210917Z - 211015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing in southern Alabama this
morning. These storms are more isolated/cellular than those farther
northeast in Georgia. The environment ahead these storms will remain
sufficient for transient supercell-like structures.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed this morning to the south
and west of an existing, long-lived line of thunderstorms. These
developing thunderstorms exist in a slightly better thermodynamic
environment than those storms farther northwest. Here, most-unstable
CAPE of nearly 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 30-35 knots will
support at least transient supercell-like structures this morning
capable of strong, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two.

..Marsh/Smith.. 05/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8-sSageJPLUPQrKIsSLaxxZhtZfZe6TCAp2-PImUAa_4MF6uaAV_rZVMFQaUhDrg2WOxsSaVr= yhQu23JWOpXiP4dIwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31848815 32108785 32278740 32468588 32688415 32588359
32098374 31678529 31658629 31568695 31468772 31578805
31848815=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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