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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0914

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 21 00:12:46 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210012
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210012=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-210145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0914
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0712 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025

    Areas affected...Parts of central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306...

    Valid 210012Z - 210145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe hail and locally damaging gusts remain possible
    across parts of central Louisiana -- within Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 306. While a localized severe risk may spread southward out of
    the watch, a downstream watch is not currently expected.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms with a couple deep/embedded
    cores is ongoing across central Louisiana along the tail-end of a
    cold front draped across the region. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear
    (per POE VWP data) oriented mostly parallel to the front is favoring
    congealing of cold pools, though the strong shear and around 3000
    J/kg MLCAPE is yielding robust embedded updrafts. Severe hail and
    locally damaging wind gusts remain possible with this activity. With
    time, storms may spread southward out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
    306. While there may be a continued localized severe risk, current
    thinking is that the overall risk will likely remain too
    isolated/limited for a downstream watch -- especially given weak
    large-scale ascent and gradually increasing nocturnal static
    stability.

    ..Weinman.. 05/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7n6Rr4ADqjzZ68z9hRIufZcHsIj3zzTyR-_bfTH2LAPTJprXTOc2_FHUXvGheL0AugvI7cMij= -628t2Ot0Iy_e-Fcq8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31279385 31599352 31869297 32019232 32029190 31899166
    31599147 31229185 30919294 30839340 30969375 31279385=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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