ACUS01 KWNS 020211
SWODY1
SPC AC 020210

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 020128
SWODY1
SPC AC 020126

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...

CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.

As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.

Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 100118
SWODY1
SPC AC 100116

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Discussion...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over
North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will
move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving
mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early
Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over
the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near
Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level
warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an
environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the
shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle.
Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some
enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a
brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary
threat.

Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and
the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening
thunderstorm activity this evening.

..Smith.. 05/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS01 KWNS 181723
SWODY1
SPC AC 181722

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN MAINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this
afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.

...KS/OK...
A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a
band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM
into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into
western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air
mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector
will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show
diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today.

The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity
will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central
KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with
forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote
a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending
slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the
dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However,
any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards.

...Western North TX...
Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be
over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures
in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These
storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the
evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible.

...MS/AL/GA...
A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon
from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs
are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries
present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development
this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a
risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart.. 05/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)