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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0341

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 00:46:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 020046
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020045=20
    TXZ000-020245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0341
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0745 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of central and northwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 020045Z - 020245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
    with initial discrete storms in central/northwest Texas. It is
    unclear if severe coverage will warrant a watch, though trends are
    being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm has developed ahead of the
    dryline in central/northwest Texas -- where steep boundary-lapse
    rates are intersecting the western edge of the warm/moist sector
    (upper 50s/lower 60s F dewpoints). Weak large-scale forcing for
    ascent and 40-50 kt of cross-boundary 0-6 km shear (per DYX VWP)
    will support discrete supercellular structures, aided by around 2000
    J/kg MLCAPE. Initial storms will mainly pose a risk of isolated
    large hail and locally severe gusts. However, if these storms can
    persist long enough and track eastward into the increasing low-level
    shear/SRH, the tornado threat would also increase. The overall
    coverage and evolution of storms remains unclear, though trends are
    being monitored for a possible watch.

    ..Weinman/Mosier.. 04/02/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6U8H9d2BCXjvqt2q9s144gcRztuVAOuJRL9gO0gRqwnN2r3tw7sN3wgOF5L4fawpP3_Z1A4Ot= z7rPLgaUr8h05AF6Vk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32369948 33039928 33319883 33379826 33309783 33079767
    32639772 32099822 31319944 31449993 31660001 32369948=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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