ACUS11 KWNS 311105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311104=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-311230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0323
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 AM CDT Mon Mar 31 2025

Areas affected...northeast MS into north-central AL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85...

Valid 311104Z - 311230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 85
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will spread east into portions of northern/north-central AL this morning.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS/bowing line of convection near the northeast MS
state line will continue to shift east into portions of
northern/north-central AL this morning. Radar trends from KGWX
showed a few mesovortices/areas of rotation as this line approached
the radar. This indicates potential for locally enhanced damaging
gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. Regional VWP data shows modestly
enlarged low-level hodographs with 0-1 km shear around 25-35 kt on
the nose of an increasing southwesterly low-level jet. This may be
sufficient for a brief tornado, though the predominant risk is
expected to remain damaging gusts as the line of convection
continues east through the morning hours.

..Leitman.. 03/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6BZwmOYI7_kZQQpP8LCkemWdoZpMK3OJrvQ8D-HGYjj881sBcredWeEgEb28HgvIbdSpY3Njv= 0GjP8ogh9n7vo2FOUw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34308872 34368844 34228729 33998665 33718651 33388664
33178712 33088750 33088831 33118873 33198931 33698900
34308872=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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