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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0305

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Mar 30 19:53:26 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 301949
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 301949=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-302145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0305
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 30 2025

    Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan...Northwest Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 301949Z - 302145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...An organized line of storms with a history of 60-85 mph
    wind gusts will continue into western Ohio and southern Lower
    Michigan. Risk for damaging winds will continue with more
    isolated/uncertain threats for large hail and tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...An organized line of fast-moving storms continues
    northeastward through central/northern Indiana. Modest
    destabilization continues ahead of this line into portions of
    western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan. Given the organization of
    this line, potential for severe/damaging gusts will remain even as
    buoyancy tends to wane north and east. This line of storms has a
    history of producing wind gusts of 60-85 mph. Damaging winds will
    likely remain the primary risk. Isolated large hail could occur, but
    storm mode will mitigate that risk. Likewise, storm mode is also not
    optimal for tornadoes. Regional VAD winds and RAP forecast soundings
    do suggest some QLCS tornado risk will exist, but this risk
    diminishes with eastward extent. One or more watches will need to be
    considered for portions of western Ohio and southern Lower Michigan
    by 21Z.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 03/30/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ybaMgdNByeoKgEbOO_Ag2UozdGf1caecMBgOxZuU0VGYErWI9xehoXAOKYaJHZ6wpuj76UKm= 54-_gPhhGbYQH-YMFo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 43028639 43558486 43568327 42948247 41978229 41118286
    40718387 40568459 40708483 40918493 43028639=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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