ACUS11 KWNS 281547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281546=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-281745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0273
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025

Areas affected...Parts of east TX and western LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281546Z - 281745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible into this
afternoon, with a threat of locally damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado.

DISCUSSION...Several northward moving cells/clusters are ongoing
across east TX late this morning, to the east of a convectively
enhanced midlevel shortwave trough moving slowly eastward across
south TX. Area VWPs depict rather strong southerly low-level flow,
with some low-level hodograph curvature implied where surface winds
remain backed out of the southeast. MLCAPE may gradually increase
near/above 500 J/kg into late morning and this afternoon, with
continued storm development possible within the moist and uncapped environment.=20

While deep-layer shear will remain relatively modest, effective SRH
of 100-200 m2/s2 will support occasional storm organization. Given
the relatively favorable low-level shear/SRH and rich boundary-layer
moisture, a tornado cannot be ruled out with any sustained cells,
while locally damaging gusts will be possible with any stronger cells/clusters.=20

Watch issuance is unlikely in the short term due to the isolated
nature of the threat, but trends will be monitored for the potential
of stronger diurnal heating/destabilization and a locally greater
threat into the afternoon.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8rhYmnX8d1OjiMGT_PLq7s9zHl51tHxT53py5strR2RHQFLFI6ybDpuESt2RnRMlBv9zOjqQ7= zv3NCp0P8p-r-8iJw4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON 28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335
31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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