ACUS11 KWNS 241003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241003=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-241200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0503 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241003Z - 241200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms capable of damaging wind gusts will move
along the Gulf Coast this morning.

DISCUSSION...Storms which moved across southeast Texas, and produced
a 53 knot wind gust at 0815 UTC at KHOU, have now congealed into a
bowing line of storms. Several taller cells are apparent within this
line and some additional storms have started to develop ahead of it,
indicating a mesoscale region of enhanced lift. This lift, combined
with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE across southern Louisiana where 40 knots of
deep-layer shear are present (per LCH VWP), should support some
damaging wind threat over the next few hours as this bowing line of
storms moves east.=20

Current expectation is that this line of storms may produce sporadic
damaging wind gusts, but should not be widespread enough to support
a watch. However, this bowing segment was not forecast by CAM
guidance including the 08Z HRRR and the mesoscale environment
supports at least some potential for this bowing segment to continue
and perhaps strengthen. Therefore, if this bow continues to
strengthen, a severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 03/24/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_2Ycpa56oNSwYeAlC6hkd6w9PPnz2mvCiGu5e2Bcld-tJGx8owfVTH2nY6zXL3x6mUa-f1za= DGqLalyZ8joY1QVyuE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29599384 30019382 30439377 30769336 30999257 31009166
30949083 30729046 29959026 29109053 29009072 29039104
29339154 29519231 29679323 29679348 29599384=20


=3D =3D =3D
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