ACUS11 KWNS 161743
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161742=20
NYZ000-PAZ000-161915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...western into central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55...

Valid 161742Z - 161915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 55
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch was recently issues across
western New York for an increasing damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms is starting to develop over
eastern Lake Erie. This is expected to become more intense across
western New York over the next 1 to 2 hours as it moves off the lake
and into an airmass featuring temperatures in the low to mid 70s
across western New York. Instability is expected to remain weak
(250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), but should be sufficient for some damaging
wind threat as this line of storms moves east.

The severe potential will decrease substantially at some point late
this afternoon as the boundary layer starts to cool. Therefore, it
is unclear how far east the severe threat will persist across
central New York. A watch has recently been issued for western New
York to address this threat with later areal expansions into central
New York possibly needed.

..Bentley/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kwewOUpvLCXpUyM9nxT9iza26bEwrtbLu0NrSyQFs-YKXdHL00oJxWAF95tGEPnU8H5ER5Hj= P5Vc_24bYwN6f7OUl0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 42217933 42847898 43337890 43437781 43337718 43557652
43657618 43397567 42447570 41997611 41907787 41887920
42217933=20


=3D =3D =3D
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