ACUS11 KWNS 161713
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161713=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-161845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0229
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...portions of the eastern Carolinas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 51...

Valid 161713Z - 161845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 51 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 51. A
couple of additional damaging gusts or tornadoes cannot be ruled
out. A WW replacement may be needed for eastern NC pending favorable
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Loosely organized thunderstorm clusters across central
NC continue to move eastward as a thunderstorm cluster over eastern
SC approaches the shoreline. These storms are preceded by scant
buoyancy (i.e. barely over 100 J/kg SB/MLCAPE, or 500 J/kg MUCAPE),
which has likely limited severe potential thus far. However, strong
flow aloft will continue over the eastern Carolinas as the low-level
jet axis remains centered along the Carolina shoreline as the 500 mb
wind maxima approaches from the west. As such, any robust updrafts
that manage to become organized and robust may be accompanied by a
threat for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes. The main question at
the moment is appreciable coverage of organized storms given such
scant buoyancy. Tornado Watch 51 is set to expire at 18Z, so a new
Tornado Watch may be necessary under the condition that organized
storms become apparent.

..Squitieri/Gleason.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_DoDorqNoj3ul3W15KPVQYl9qNWg_Ey49kG17KI9i5RjprMYGXOwpHO2vOolnWhHAlETixlb= BYEW2fqY8C75P7crlg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 33677993 35107875 35747851 36547775 36757734 36977662
37007617 36947593 36607584 36327574 35897555 35447546
35077594 34677657 34507722 34057791 33827841 33577895
33507942 33677993=20


=3D =3D =3D
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