ACUS11 KWNS 151832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151831=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-152030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...southern Mississippi to central Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46...

Valid 151831Z - 152030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues.

SUMMARY...Ongoing supercells are likely to persist through the
afternoon with intense to violent tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Multiple mature supercells have developed from central
to south-central Mississippi. One of these supercells has already
produced a likely violent tornado across Walthall county. The
environment downstream of these supercells continues to destabilize,
which will maintain the threat through the afternoon and likely into
the evening. Eventually, these storms will likely move east of the
upper 60s dewpoints. However, mid 60s dewpoints, which are expected
to be prevalent across Alabama, should be sufficient for a continued
intense to violent tornado threat given the continued favorable
kinematics and the presence of already strong supercells. This is
supported by the 17Z WoFS with more than half of the ensemble
members showing one or more long track UH swaths from south-central
Mississippi to central Alabama through the afternoon.=20

Increased forcing with the ejecting mid-level jet max, has led to a
large amount of additional showers and small thunderstorms in the
vicinity of these storms. This may lead to occasional disruptions of
tornadic circulations, but expect the strongly dynamic pressure
perturbations associated with the ongoing supercells to persist
through the entire afternoon.

..Bentley.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55GPIr_2S9jwxahDvFqq8FUx_u5VMYcdjAlBWhXnz5n20nJo7TY_f9wuzyuDix74i-cVg6WTA= 9CM2AtFrvZmUDYzxcI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 33578809 33858764 33638710 33288693 32778680 32448685
31838781 30908946 30868967 30889019 31149036 31499024
32228959 33088875 33578809=20


=3D =3D =3D
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