ACUS11 KWNS 150115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150115=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-150315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...The Ark-La-Miss region

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...33...36...

Valid 150115Z - 150315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32, 33, 36 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat appears to be increasing across the
Ark-La-Miss region as thunderstorms continue to intensify. Further
south, the near-term severe threat appears low across eastern
Louisiana into southwest Mississippi, though convective development
remains possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southeast AR
into western MS with latest GOES imagery showing cloud top heights
exceeding regional equilibrium levels (37-38 kft). This suggests
that storms are beginning to fully realize the thermodynamic
environment and should steadily become more organized given the very
favorable kinematic profiles depicted by regional VWPs.
Consequently, the severe threat may be increasing for parts of
southeast AR and western MS.=20

Further south across eastern LA into southwest MS, initial storms
that developed during the 22-00 UTC period have since collapsed
despite a favorable convective environment. This was possibly due to
inadequate forcing for ascent that did not allow storms to
sufficiently intensify and become self-sufficient. Since then,
additional attempts at convective initiation have been noted, but
have been unsuccessful. For the short term, the severe threat
remains low, but continued (though weak) isentropic ascent within a
very weakly capped and strongly sheared environment (per the 00 UTC
LIX sounding) and bubbling cumulus across the region suggest that
severe convection remains possible within the next 2-5 hours (though
confidence in this potential is limited).

..Moore.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4Fg6g8bTdAEZsEtZ3a9nu7xKmfSgndUQXJIHRa0A1vAZkNgw97pzGJ1DaTU3AJ0gJOWq9HjyA= Oo7PKlLVBivN7a5a9M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 32469085 32509126 32669155 32979171 33329180 33639163
34429035 34509003 34448967 34268933 33968919 33548915
33238935 32828986 32609037 32469085=20


=3D =3D =3D
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