ACUS11 KWNS 142350
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142350=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Arkansas into northwest
Mississippi...western Tennessee...and the Missouri Bootheel

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142350Z - 150145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears possible in the next 1-2
hours across eastern Arkansas. Storms are expected to intensify as
they migrate east/northeast into adjacent portions of Mississippi,
Missouri, and Tennessee. Watch issuance is likely as the severe
threat becomes apparent (though timing is slightly uncertain).

DISCUSSION...Recent GOES visible and low-level water-vapor imagery
show a band of gradually deepening cumulus across eastern AR on the
eastern fringe of a low-level theta-e axis where isentropic ascent
is regionally greatest. A few orphan anvils and occasional lightning
flashes have been noted within the last 10-30 minutes, suggesting
that this may be the early stages of convective initiation that has
been consistently depicted in recent HRRR solutions over the past
few hours. However, thunderstorms further south across eastern LA
that developed in a similar, if not a better from a thermodynamic
perspective, convective environment have struggled to maintain
intensity and organization over the past hour. Consequently, it
remains somewhat uncertain whether robust convective initiation is
imminent and how widespread storm coverage will be in the next few
hours. Closer proximity to the primary upper trough may support
stronger forcing for ascent and perhaps higher probability for
successful convective initiation. If storms can develop and
intensify, they will likely pose a threat for all convective
hazards, including the potential for a strong tornado, given
favorable buoyancy, deep-layer shear, and low-level SRH observed
from KLZK and KNQA VWPs (the environment is also characterized by
SCP values between 12-16 and STP values of 2-4, suggesting a robust
convective environment). Convective trends will continue to be
monitored, and watch issuance is likely if/when a severe threat
begins to materialize.

..Moore/Mosier.. 03/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vryL6hLNyyih8xfVKBIj8fYITU_HNotlhtYC1r7lk9BT79K7ThlFzAk2AdZ57G8nPGZ-yJ9w= yY4N32BpSlfJ8y_OF4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 33509186 33669196 34169183 34959151 36369085 36589025
36638981 36618915 36438878 35928864 35348868 34748897
34378929 33988977 33549121 33429155 33449171 33509186=20


=3D =3D =3D
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