ACUS11 KWNS 081159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081159=20
TXZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025

Areas affected...Parts of north-central into northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081159Z - 081400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for hail and locally strong gusts will spread
from north-central into northeast Texas through sunrise.

DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived, elevated supercells are moving
across southern portions of the Metroplex early this morning, with
MRMS data suggesting these cells have produced long swaths of
subsevere to occasionally severe hail. Strong flow above 3 km (as
noted on the KFWS VWP) will continue to support sufficient effective
shear for storm organization as these cells move quickly
east-northeastward through and after sunrise.=20

MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and relatively cold temperatures aloft will
continue to provide a favorable thermodynamic profile for hail with
these cells, though generally limited storm depth (with echo tops
generally below 35 kft) may continue to limit the maximum hail sizes
to some extent. Strong gusts will also continue to be possible with
these cells, as noted earlier with a 42 kt gust in Cleburne.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5jFNdAwRACZPbNHLWGOAOp-yj96Xbe9yl_VPoN5GsIWMJMOfD2pPhRAAa_zehJcllGu24bLuT= FYOk7wjmUofC8GNR0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON 32719722 33029675 33129540 33009479 32379483 32219529
32219570 32169617 32209646 32269699 32339713 32719722=20


=3D =3D =3D
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