942
AXNT20 KNHC 051054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1215 UTC Wed Mar 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: S to SW winds will strengthen to gale
force by late morning offshore of northeastern Florida as a cold
front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States and
rapidly progresses eastward. Gale force winds will continue along
and ahead of the front through Thu night north of 29N. Behind the
front, gale force NW winds are expected Thu morning through Thu
night north of 29N. N to NW swell associated with this system will
propagate southeastward through late week, producing rough seas
north of 25N through Thu, and north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas
of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated north of 27N between 78W and 60W
through late this week.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends
to 01N18W. The ITCZ continues from 01N18W to 01S47W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04S to 07N
between 10W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0600 UTC, a cold front extends from coastal Alabama near
30N88W to offshore of Tampico, Mexico, and is generating a line of
heavy showers and tstms across the Florida Panhandle and the NE
Gulf offshore waters. Strong to locally near-gale force SW winds
are occurring ahead of the cold front in the northeastern basin,
and peak seas to 11 ft are accompanying the winds. Fresh to
strong NW winds are ongoing behind the front over the NW Gulf
where seas are 6 to 10 ft. Elsewhere, strong to near-gale force NW
winds are noted in the western Bay of Campeche offshore of
Veracruz. Seas in the SW Gulf are 2 to 5 ft. Over the SE Gulf and
ahead of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SE and
seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will progress
southeastward today. Strong to near-gale force S to SW winds and
rough seas will occur ahead of the cold front this morning north
of 27N, with widespread fresh S winds likely across the eastern
half of the basin. Behind the cold front, expect fresh to strong
NW winds with occasional gusts to gale force as well as rough
seas, mainly north of 27.5N in the northern Gulf, and offshore of
Veracruz. Fresh to strong NW winds will prevail in the
northeastern Gulf through early Thu, north of 25.5N and east of
95W, as the front moves southeastward and exits the basin tonight,
and high pressure builds over the central United States. Ridging
will extend over the basin on Thu and Fri, supporting moderate E
to SE winds across the basin, with fresh winds occurring west of
90W. Another cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf by Sat
night, and gale conditions will be possible offshore Veracruz on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1029 mb high centered north of the area near 37N62W is
extending ridging across the Bahamas and the northern Caribbean.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low
continues to support fresh to locally strong E winds offshore of
Colombia along with 6 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds are
noted in the northwestern basin ahead of a cold front moving
through the Gulf of Mexico, and locally strong SE winds are noted
in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas range from 2 to 5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, trade winds will pulse to fresh to locally
strong speeds offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of
Venezuela each night and morning through this weekend, as low
pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. A strengthening
pressure gradient between a cold front moving southeastward
through the Gulf of Mexico, the Colombian low, and high pressure
over the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds through the
Windward Passage early this morning, and fresh to strong SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras through late morning. The aforementioned
cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean tonight and
gradually weaken, with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds
expected behind the front through Thu morning. Otherwise, moderate
trade winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the
central and eastern Caribbean into this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale
Warning off the coast of NE Florida.

A stationary front extends from 31N46W southwestward to 21N66W,
and a 1029 high is centered north of the area near 37N62W. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds north of the stationary front, as well as
rough seas of 8 to 11 ft. Farther west, fresh to strong S to SE
winds are ongoing across the Bahamas and offshore of eastern
Florida ahead of a strong storm system moving through the
southeastern United States. Localized near-gale force winds are
noted north of 29N and west of 78W, where seas of 8 to 11 ft
prevail. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge extending from a 1022
mb high SW of the Azores reaches into the tropical waters. Winds
over the central and eastern subtropical waters are gentle to
moderate from the NE to E and seas are 6 to 8 ft. Over the
tropics, trades are moderate to fresh W of 38W and seas are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong S winds will occur this morning
north of 27N and west of 75W ahead of a cold front moving through
the southeastern United States. S to SW winds will strengthen to
gale force by late morning offshore of northeastern Florida as the
front pushes off the coast and rapidly progresses eastward. Gale
force winds will continue along and ahead of the front through Thu
night north of 29N. Behind the front, gale force NW winds are
expected Thu morning through Thu night north of 29N. N to NW swell
associated with this system will propagate southeastward through
late week, producing rough seas north of 25N through Thu, and
north of 21N through Fri. Peak seas of 15 to 19 ft are anticipated
north of 27N between 78W and 60W through late this week. The
storm system will progress eastward across the central Atlantic
through Fri before lifting north and east of the forecast waters.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail
north of a stationary front today, extending from 31N46W to
21N66W. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will
prevail south of 25N this week.

$$
ADAMS
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