ACUS11 KWNS 051222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051222=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-051445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025

Areas affected...much of central South and North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 051222Z - 051445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The environment is beginning to rapidly change, and a ramp
up in severe storm potential is likely. Damaging winds and brief
tornadoes may develop through midday.

DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection continues to push
east across the western Carolinas and southeast GA this morning,
with strong gusts on the order of 40 kt common with this wind shift.
Although bulk CAPE values are currently low, this will likely change
over the next few hours, as low-level moisture streams in from the
south. Local radar indeed shows showers now evident in a north-south
streamer off the ocean.=20

As the front interacts with the moistening air mass, conditions will continually become more favorable for rotation within the line, with
brief tornadoes and damaging winds expected. Shear is extremely
strong with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 over the entire region.

Further, as pockets of heating develop, additional more discrete
supercells may develop, most likely during the afternoon and perhaps
to the east of this early day regime.

..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9-IxQLa4JWvlYhhYoxJMO1LZqoGu8k2T2Bf1K1Nh5K3Jp59wPlq67sHuPxu5ClkNMh76oovec= xDFeMy3tLPBB96qmF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 32927939 32628000 32578028 32578076 32648110 32868143
33028151 33388149 34528122 34998106 35258089 35708042
35927965 35917891 35767846 35297828 33917836 33837847
33757865 33437903 33137912 32927939=20


=3D =3D =3D
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