ACUS11 KWNS 042202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042202=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-042300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0136
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 042202Z - 042300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch will be needed with a threat for
damaging gusts and embedded tornadoes across portions of southern
Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

DISCUSSION...A strongly-forced line of convection is ongoing this
afternoon across portions of southeastern Louisiana and central
Mississippi. Moisture ahead of the line has been relatively meager,
with modified continental air mass in place across southern Alabama
and the Florida panhandle yielding surface dewpoints largely in the
50s to low 60s F. As the line approaches from the west, the
low-level mass response is expected to turn the winds more
southerly, bringing higher moisture onshore and at least some
positive buoyancy. The 21Z KLIX sounding shows the effect of this
with a deep moist adiabatic layer near the surface resulting in
meager CAPE values.=20

Given the very strong low-level flow in that sounding and on VWPs
across the region, and despite the poor low-level lapse rates,
convection is expected to mix some of that flow down to the surface
producing a threat for damaging gusts. In addition, given the strong
low-level shear, some mesovortex-type tornadoes are possible in the
line as the line moves to the east with time.

..Supinie/Mosier.. 03/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90ltQWS6grFq3jFRyNggbzxOdYL_81dGAAxJlYjnuKwE2ZUnLSxSbwpuO8KQhLwCWVkStbDp6= 2ptgz3n8vhe3De1eJA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30068783 30098821 30828836 31998841 32598830 33228824
33508785 33428717 33118622 32808578 32058544 31668543
30898561 30218616 30068783=20


=3D =3D =3D
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