ACUS11 KWNS 042015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042014=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-042145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0135
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025
Areas affected...southern Mississippi and southern Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...
Valid 042014Z - 042145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest tornado threat this afternoon will be across
southern Mississippi and southern Louisiana.
DISCUSSION...The warm sector is slowly expanding eastward across
southern Mississippi with upper 60s dewpoints now across southern
Louisiana. Thunderstorms development continues along and slightly
ahead of a cold front extending from near the ArkLaMiss to the
central Louisiana Gulf Coast. A few embedded supercells have
produced transient circulations and some severe wind gusts, but a
strong, mature supercell has yet to form. This remains a possibility
this afternoon as convection continues to develop and slowly deepen
across southern Louisiana and Mississippi. The supercell tornado
threat this afternoon will increase if a large enough area of
greater instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) can develop. However,
this is seemingly less likely as eastward warm sector expansion
remains slow with expansive cloud cover. Nonetheless, even without
mature supercells, a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat will
continue through the afternoon and into the evening with very strong
low-level flow (70 knots at 1.5 km per JAN 19Z RAOB).
..Bentley.. 03/04/2025
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ednYD2xDB_FYkHXSZg22zDrGDIlnQS2LcZEW6bJbcKLXc3l6rI1CKU7lpcKDDtR_RHsoYfEC= xFowPPONhgv3A-hcwo$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29619317 30849219 32139099 32328998 32328908 31728847
30368833 30008902 29488928 29208963 29009006 28989055
29169128 29469208 29619317=20
=3D =3D =3D
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