ACUS11 KWNS 040531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040531=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-040730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of western/central OK into north/central
TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

Valid 040531Z - 040730Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing a risk of damaging gusts and a
few tornadoes will continue to shift east across western/central
Oklahoma and portions central/northern Texas the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of convection across western OK continues to
shift east at around 30-40 mph. These storms have been generally
been organized given strong vertical shear. However, convection has
largely remained elevated given modest boundary layer moisture and
poor low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, a few severe gusts near 60
mph have been noted. Furthermore, a few line-embedded cells have
occasionally exhibited modest low-level rotation. This suggests if
these storms can become surface-based, the tornado risk would
increase given very large, favorably curved hodographs as seen in
region VWP data.=20

Convection may intensify with time and southward extent across parts
of the Red River vicinity as convection moves into somewhat better
quality moisture later tonight. Trends will be monitored and
downstream watch issuance may become necessary across parts of
eastern OK and north/northeast TX in the next few hours.

..Leitman.. 03/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9bzcYC9vNvPgl77GykY-XwKX9tgyh2PaTjKMCokQdJ2H4WwPcdACr1kFSllpvN2A7scX3F0ni= Q2GPUqMO8GSvBzM9jk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 35279930 37029814 36999661 34659716 31129969 31090077
32640034 34709964 35279930=20


=3D =3D =3D
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