ACUS11 KWNS 040114
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040113=20
KSZ000-040245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025

Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 040113Z - 040245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing main a risk for large hail and
isolated damaging wind gusts are expected to develop by 03-04z. A
severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of
south-central and southeast Kansas in the next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection across OK/TX into southern KS
will persist through the evening and overnight hours ahead of an eastward-advancing surface low (currently centered over southeast
CO) and attendant cold front. 00z regional RAOBs from DDC and OUN
indicate a robust warm layer/cap atop a cool boundary layer, similar
to forecast sounding guidance. Strong large-scale ascent associated
with the ejecting upper low/shortwave trough and linear forcing
related to the advancing cold front will act to weak inhibition
some. However, convection developing by 03-04z is expected to
largely remain elevated given a lack of a warmer/more moist boundary
layer.=20

Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates (500 mb temps around -17 to
-16 C) will support MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep layer
flow with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will
likewise foster organized convection. An elevated line of
convection, perhaps mixed with some cellular elements, will sweep
across south-central/southeast KS during the evening to overnight
hours. Initial convection within the first couple of hours will pose
a greater risk for large hail if storm mode can maintain cellular characteristics. Otherwise, some risk for isolated damaging gusts
also will be possible even with elevated storm given strong
low-level flow and restively quick storm motion.

While the elevated nature of convection is expected to limit tornado
potential across Kansas, low-level wind profiles are quite favorable
for rotation. While a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out, the overall
tornado risk is expected to remain secondary to large hail and
strong gust potential.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_uA-SA7I_NyFOEWvixmTP6KErtbSUQEcioxlUfvjMsxWMM0eb52sAAIozXIPG7pEEZ-KypCGo= Yh11t3xpyOuzUTW5ho$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37019924 38089885 38289840 38429736 38399619 37899546
37009539 37019924=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)