389
AXNT20 KNHC 240815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 24 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0815 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11.5W to 01N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N32W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06S to 02N between 05W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low pressure is centered near 27.5N90W, with a cold
front extending from the low to the central Bay of Campeche.
Strong to near gale force winds are E and N of the low, with seas
in the 6-8 ft range, Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds, and
moderate seas, prevail.

For the forecast, the low will track quickly E-SE across south-
central Florida tonight, with the trailing cold front moving into
the NW Caribbean this evening. Fresh to strong winds are expected
around the low pressure today, while moderate to fresh NW winds
are expected behind the front. Weak high pressure will settle over
the north- central waters Tue through Wed night leading to
tranquil marine conditions across the basin. Another cold front
will enter the NW Gulf Thu morning and sweep across the basin
through Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft,
prevail over the north central Caribbean as well as the eastern
Caribbean. Over the western Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds,
and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure across the W Atlc north of the
area will shift eastward today, resulting in a modest decrease in
trade winds across the basin. A cold front will enter the NW
Caribbean this evening, then reach from western Cuba to the Gulf
of Honduras Tue morning with fresh NW winds behind it. The front
will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by
early Wed. Fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia will diminish
gradually through Tue, then strengthen again toward the end of the
week. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through the middle
of the week, as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will
briefly become fresh to locally strong across SE portions Tue
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N42W
southwestward to the Turks and Caicos Islands. gentle to moderate
winds are S of 27N W of the front. A 1023 mb high is centered near
30N66W, with light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high
center. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 7-19 ft range E if 57W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere except W of 75W
where seas are in the 3-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today.
Rough seas N of the front will subside across the waters W of 55W
today. Elongated low pressure will move across south- central
Florida and the NW Bahamas tonight, then track NE and intensify
Tue, moving N of 31N by late Tue night. The low will drag a cold
front across the western part of the area. Strong to near gale-
force southerly winds and active convection will prevail ahead of
the front and low Tue through Wed morning. By late Wed night,
marine conditions will improve under a weak pressure pattern. The
next cold front is expected to move offshore the SE United States
Thu night.

$$
AL
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731
AXNT20 KNHC 270812
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of , Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N19W to 01N40W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 15W and 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds,
and seas of 1-3 ft are over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak and mostly dry cold front will move off
the Texas coast this morning. The front is expected to reach the
southeastern Gulf tonight. Fresh northerly winds west of the front
will diminish Fri afternoon as high pressure builds in the wake
of the front. Southeast winds are expected to increase slightly
over the central and western Gulf starting Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle winds, and seas of 2-3 ft
are over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia will
strengthen toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and eastern
Caribbean through Fri as well as the Tropical N Atlantic. These
winds will gradually expand in coverage through the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to develop in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N57W to 25N65W becomes stationary
to the eastern tip of Cuba. Moderate winds are within 90 NM either
side of the front. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere W of the
font. Seas of 6-8 ft are in the vicinity of the front N of 28N.
Elsewhere W of the front, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. Moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. The next cold
front will move offshore the southeastern United States tonight.
This front will reach from near 31N73W to east- central Cuba early
Fri and from near 31N65W to NW Haiti Fri night, then stall and
weaken Sat. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of
the front N of about 27N Fri. High pressure will settle over the
western part of the area Sat, with generally calm conditions over
most of the area. Another cold front will move across the western
and central forecast waters Sun and Sun night, reaching the
eastern part of the area Mon, with fresh to strong north to
northeast winds expected south of about 28N and west of the front.


$$
AL
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576
AXNT20 KNHC 281007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to
05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N between 17W and
31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through the northern Gulf, extending from
29N83W southwestward to 22N98W. No deep convection is occurring
with this front. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 4 ft
prevail across much of the Gulf, with the exception of the SE Bay
of Campeche where moderate to fresh NE winds prevail.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move SE of the Gulf
today, followed by moderate northerly winds. These winds will
diminish this afternoon as high pressure builds across the area.
Southeast winds are expected to increase over the central and
western Gulf on Sun. Another cold front is expected to move across
the eastern and central Gulf waters on Sun, followed by stronger
high pressure that will build southward across the eastern Gulf
into early next week. A tight gradient will lead to fresh
northeast to east winds over the southeastern Gulf early next
week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge located north of Bermuda extends southward
into the Caribbean Sea, and a 1008 mb low has been analyzed over
northwestern Colombia. The pressure gradient between these
features is supporting fresh to strong northeast winds in the
south-central basin just offshore of Colombia and Venezuela, with
rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3
to 6 ft prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft in the
northwestern basin.

For the forecast, strong NE winds offshore Colombia will pulse each
night through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail
elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean through early
next week. Mostly fresh NE winds are forecast to pulse in the
lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N57W to 25N65W, where it
transitions to a trough to 21N68W. Scattered showers are noted
along and east of the front. The rest of the SW North Atlantic
(west of 60W and N of 20N) is under the influence of a 1032 mb
high pressure centered NE of Bermuda and an attendant ridge
extending southwestward. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail in these waters. For the
remainder of the basin, fresh to strong E to NE winds and seas of
5-9 ft prevail, with the highest seas occurring south of 20N
between 25W and 55W.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. The
next cold front will move into our offshore waters in the W
Atlantic today. The front will reach from 31N68W to 27N73W this
afternoon, then it will weaken near southeastern Bahamas tonight.
The front will stall and dissipate this weekend. Fresh to strong
winds are expected on either side of the front N of about 27N
today. High pressure will settle over the western part of the area
Sat, with generally calm conditions over most of the area.
Another cold front will move across the western and central
forecast waters on Sun, reaching the eastern part of the area
early next week, where it will stall. Fresh to strong north to
northeast winds are expected south of about 27N and west of the
front starting Mon.

$$
ERA
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513
AXNT20 KNHC 010943
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N17W to the coast of Brazil near 02S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S to 06N between 25W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extends across the Florida Straits along 23N and
E of 82W. No significant convection is noted with this boundary.
A high pressure of 1018 mb has settled into the NE Gulf behind
the front. A surface trough is analyzed over the W Gulf,
paralleling the coasts of Texas and Mexico roughly 100 nm
offshore. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high
pressure pattern that supports gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas.

For the forecast, light to gentle variable winds prevail across
the basin, with slight to moderate seas. A new cold front is
forecast to sink across the NE Gulf waters tonight and exit the SE
basin Sun morning. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow this
front through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will develop
over the western half of the Gulf Tue morning ahead of the next
cold front forecast to come off the Texas coast late Tue. The cold
front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz offshore
waters Wed morning and exit the basin Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad ridge extends from the NE Atlantic to the waters N of
Puerto Rico. This pressure pattern is forcing fresh to strong NE-E
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, as confirmed by
satellite scatterometer data. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.
The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia.
Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are
prevalent across the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere across NW portions, moderate or weaker N to NE winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, strong NE winds will pulse each night offshore
Colombia through Tue night while strong trades are forecast to
affect the Gulf of Venezuela through the weekend. Moderate to
fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish to
gentle to moderate speeds Mon morning and continue through Tue
night. The tail end of a cold front will move across Cuba on Sun
night. High pressure building in the wake of the front will lead
to the development of moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee of
Cuba Sun night into Mon night, and fresh to strong E to SE winds
in the Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N62W to 23N80W. A pre-frontal trough
is analyzed from 31N59W to 19N66W. Otherwise, the Atlantic is
dominated by ridging stemming from a 1038 mb high centered near
46N26W. The pressure gradient between the ridge extending SW from
this high and lower pressure in the tropics results in fresh to
strong NE to E winds across much of the Atlantic S of 31N and E of
64W. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds prevail W of 64W. Moderate
seas prevail across the Atlantic as well, with the exception of
areas S of 25N and E of 56W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the cold front currently in the W atlantic will
continue moving E while weakening. A second cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast tonight, reach from Bermuda to the
central Bahamas Sun morning, from 31N60W to the Windward Passage
Mon morning, and from 31N50W to 26N60W with tail stalling to the
central Bahamas Tue morning. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast
ahead of the front N of 29N Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds
following the front will affect the Bahamas offshore waters Mon
night through Tue night as strong high pressure builds N of the
stationary portion of the front. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
southerly winds will develop across the NE Florida offshore waters
Tue night into Wed, ahead of the next cold front forecast to
enter the NW offshore waters Wed night.

$$
ERA
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528
AXNT20 KNHC 031052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
01N15W. The ITCZ continues from 01N15W to 01S49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 04N
from the western coast of Africa to the northeastern coast of South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening stationary front resides over the western Gulf of
Mexico, spanning from 24N91W to the southeastern coast of Texas.
Otherwise, ridging is building over the basin. Gentle to locally
moderate E to NE winds are noted in the eastern Gulf east of 85W,
with moderate to locally fresh SE winds occurring in the central
and western basin. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the eastern and
southwestern Gulf, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, high pressure building over the eastern United
States will support moderate N to NE winds over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico today, with moderate to fresh E to SE
winds occurring in the western Gulf. Strong S to SE winds and
rough seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as low
pressure strengthens in the central United States, with strong
winds extending farther east through the central and northeastern
Gulf Tue into Wed. A cold front associated with the low pressure
system will enter the northwestern basin on Tue and progress
southeastward through midweek before exiting the Gulf by early
Thu. Strong to near-gale force N to NW winds are expected offshore
of Veracruz by early Wed in the wake of the front. Looking ahead,
high pressure will build over the central United States by late
week, supporting moderate E to SE winds across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from southeastern Cuba northeastward into
the central Atlantic. Elsewhere, a 1009 mb low prevails over
northwestern Venezuela, supporting fresh to locally strong NE
winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia. Moderate
trade winds are noted across the remainder of the basin, with
locally fresh E winds occurring west of the Windward Islands. Seas
of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the southwestern, central and eastern
Caribbean, while seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted in the northwestern basin.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night
and morning through midweek as low pressure prevails over
northwestern Colombia. A tightening pressure gradient between the
Colombian low, a front moving through the central Atlantic, and
building high pressure in the western Atlantic will support fresh
NE winds through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba
tonight into early Wed, and fresh to strong E to SE winds in the
Gulf of Honduras Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, moderate trade
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the central
and eastern Caribbean this week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N66W to southeastern Cuba, and fresh
to locally strong S to SW winds and locally rough seas are
occurring east of the front. Farther west behind the front, fresh
to strong N to NE winds are occurring north of 29N between 70W and
78W. N swell associated with this low pressure system is
producing rough seas north of 28N between 65W to the east coast of
Florida, as confirmed by recent altimeter satellite data.
Scattered convection is occurring along and to the east of the
front. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high
just SW of the Azores Islands. The ridge also extends deep into
the tropical Atlantic where it supports fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough seas to 11 ft south of 25N and east of 55W. A
tight pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over NW
Africa is also supporting fresh to strong NE winds between the
Canary Islands and 32W to the N of 24N, along with rough seas in
the 8 to 12 ft range.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
progress to the south and east through Tue before dissipating
midweek. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will occur
ahead of the front north of 27N between 55W and 65W, with a brief
period of gale force winds this morning north of 30N. Behind the
front, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas will occur today
north of 26.5N between 60W and 75W. A brief period of gale force
winds will be possible this morning north of 30N between 65W and
70W. Rough seas in N to NW swell will propagate through much of
the open waters early this week, with seas in excess of 8 ft
occurring north of 26N by late morning, and north of 22N Tue
morning. Fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas are
likely south of 25N today, with moderate to locally fresh trades
occurring in this area through the rest of the week. Elsewhere,
high pressure building over the eastern United States will support
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds off the coast of Florida
and through the Bahamas by early Tue. More widespread fresh to
strong S winds will develop in this region Tue night ahead of a
strong cold front entering the northwestern basin on Wed. Strong
to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected
surrounding the associated low pressure system as it moves
eastward, and gale force winds will be possible behind the cold
front late week.

$$
ADAMS
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287
AXNT20 KNHC 131037
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15W and continues southwestward to
01N23W. The ITCZ continues from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil
along 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted S of 04N from the Gulf of Guinea near 00W to 23W, and S of
04.5N between 30W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico maintaining fairly
tranquil weather conditions. A 1018 mb high is centered just
offshore of the W coast of Florida near Venice, and is part of the
western portions of a west Atlantic ridge. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas
supports moderate southerly winds off the Texas and Louisiana
coasts, while fresh E-SE winds are found off Veracruz and
Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, southerly return flow over the western basin
will weaken today as a weak front approaches SE Texas and stalls.
Southerly winds will then increase to fresh to strong speeds
across most of the basin Fri, then to strong Fri night. The cold
front will move into the NW Gulf early Sat, reaching from the
Florida Panhandle to just S of Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. A
reinforcing push will advance the front SE of the basin by early
Mon, with high pressure settling over the northern basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of a stationary front have dissipated over the NW
Caribbean, but remain along the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Scattered showers are occurring along and south of the front from
the Mona Passage to south of the Dominican Republic. A ridge
across the western Atlantic is centered on a 1020 mb high located
northeast of the Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient is
forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean waters S of 13N. These winds sustain seas of
4-6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and slight to
moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean, Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras and lee of Cuba.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the weakening frontal boundary along the
southern coast of Hispaniola is expected to dissipate today.
Moderate northwesterly swell will move through the Atlantic
passages and into the NE Caribbean this morning through early
Fri. Weak high pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift slowly northeastward through Fri to support pulsing fresh to strong
trades off northern Colombia, while moderate to fresh NE to E
winds pulse near the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican
Republic. Similar winds will pulse off eastern Honduras, becoming
fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early Sun. A cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun night into Mon, with
increasing winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to
reach from central Cuba to northern Belize by Mon evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the central Atlantic near 31N51W and
continues southwestward to southeastern Hispaniola. Satellite
imagery depict scattered showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm
ahead of the front, N of 24N. Overnight satellite scatterometer
data captured fresh to near gale-force SW-W winds north of 22N
and between 41W and 65W. Seas in these waters are 8-15 ft, with
the highest seas noted near 31N55W. However, mariners should be
aware that gale-force winds gusts are likely occurring with the
strongest storms. Behind the front fresh to strong NW to W winds
prevail N of 26N and E of 65W, where seas are 10 to 14 ft in W to
NW swell. Moderate N to NW winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft in NW
swell cover the remainder of the area behind the front to 70W.

A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the remainder of the SW
North Atlantic, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas west of 70W. In the rest of the central and eastern
Atlantic, a cold front stretches from the coast of Morrocco near
28N13W to 23N30W, becoming a stationary front to 24N44W.
Satellite scatterometer wind data showed fresh to strong westerly
winds north of 28N and east of 30W. Seas in the area described
are 8-17 ft in NW swell, with the highest seas occurring near
30N19W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas are
present north of 23N and east of 41W. Elsewhere to the south,
broad ridging supports moderate to fresh E to NE trade winds and
moderate to locally rough seas, especially between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the African mainland.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front extending into Hispaniola
will move slowly SE and reach from 24N55W to near the NW coast of
Puerto Rico by this evening, then weaken from 22N55W to the
northern Mona Passage Fri. Large NW to W swell behind the front
will shift east and southeastward through Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from west to east through Fri as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic in the wake of the front. Winds are
forecast to increase north of 21N this weekend as the pressure
gradient tightens between the remnants of the cold front and
strong high pressure to the N. These winds will support building
seas across most of the basin. The next cold front will push off
the SE United States coast early Mon, reaching from 31N73W to the
central Bahamas by Mon evening.

$$
Stripling
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359
AXNT20 KNHC 140955
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea, Africa near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 00N21W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator to near the
coast of Brazil. Numerous clusters of strong convection are
over the coastal waters of Africa mainly E of 15W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 02N and W of 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward to the eastern Gulf. A
weak trough is over the southeastern Gulf extending from near
25N81W to 24N82W. No significant convection is occurring with the
trough. Otherwise, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle
to moderate southerly winds over the basin, except for moderate
to fresh northeast to east winds near the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas are in the range of 1-3 ft, except for 2-4 ft in
NW Gulf.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to slide E today
as low pressure continue to build over the remainder basin ahead
of the next front. Southerly moderate to fresh winds will expand
across the remaining basin today, then increase to strong by
tonight ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the NW
Gulf by Sat morning, then reach from the Florida Panhandle to the
Bay of Campeche by Sun morning, and move E of the Gulf Mon
morning. Looking ahead, high pressure will settle over the
northern basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward to over the British Virgin Islands. A weak pressure
pattern in place is allowing for gentle to moderate trade winds
for most locations of the basin, except for fresh to strong
northeast trade winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and mostly
fresh trade winds elsewhere south of 16N between 67W and 78W. Seas
range from 4-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean to lower seas
of 2-4 ft elsewhere. No significant convection is occurring
across the basin.

For the forecast, the tail of the stationary front will start
lifting through the weekend while dissipating. High pressure NE of
the Bahamas will shift slowly NE through Sun night to support
pulsing fresh to strong trades off NW Colombia, and moderate to
fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and south of the
Dominican Republic. Winds will also pulse off eastern Honduras,
becoming fresh to strong SE to S winds Fri night through early
Sun. Rough seas are expected with strongest winds. A cold front
will approach the Yucatan Channel Mon morning, with increasing
winds and seas behind it. The front is expected to reach from
eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by Tue morning, and from the Windward
Passage to NE Nicaragua Tue evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic cold front is analyzed from near 31N42W
southwestward to 22N57W, where it transitions into a stationary
frontal boundary to the British Virgin Islands. Scattered showers
are noted along the cold front. Weak high pressure is west of the
front. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 27N between
35W and 53W. Seas with these winds are 8-14 ft. Fresh northwest to
north winds are west of the front to near 64W along with seas of
8-12 ft in west to northwest swell. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are
in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed at
28N31W. This feature covers the eastern Atlantic north of 11N and
east of the above described cold front. Fresh to strong northwest
to north winds are north of 26N and east of 21W. Seas with these
winds are 8-12 ft in northwest swell. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 25N, with seas of
7-9 ft in northwest swell. Elsewhere, northeast to east trade
winds are of gentle to moderate speeds. Seas are observed to be
generally 4-6 ft with these winds.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough to very rough seas are ongoing W of the front between 38W
and 60W. The tail end of the front will lift N through the weekend
while weakening. Large NW to W swell behind the front will shift
E through today. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east
through Fri as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic in
the wake of the front. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong
speeds again north of 22N and E of the Bahamas this weekend as
the pressure gradient tightens between the remnants of the front
and strong high pressure to the north. These winds will support
building rough seas across E of the Bahamas. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front will push off the SE United States coast early
Mon preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front will
reach from 31N70W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Tue
morning.

$$
ERA
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278
AXNT20 KNHC 270832
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 27 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05.5N09.5W and
extends SW to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W to 02S43W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
02N to 06N between 07W and 12W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 04S to 04N between 31W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the northern waters, anchored by a
1022 mb high located offshore the Florida panhandle. A surface
trough is west of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds west of
the Yucatan peninsula, where seas are in the 4-5 ft range. Light
winds, and seas of 2 ft or less are in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, building high pressure will support an increase
of winds to moderate to fresh across the NW portion today. Winds
over the NW Gulf will further increase to fresh to strong tonight
into Fri while expanding in coverage before beginning to diminish
early Sat. Seas generated by these winds will build to around 10
ft. A weak cold front may move into the NW Gulf late Sun night
into early next week, with winds diminishing to gentle to moderate
ahead of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, are over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft,
prevail elsewhere E of 80W. Over the western Caribbean, moderate
winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted.

For the forecast, winds off Colombia will pulse to near gale force
speeds at night and early morning through at least the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage, and over the waters between Cuba tonight
through Fri night. Similar winds will develop offshore central
Honduras and south of Hispaniola tonight through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Mainly moderate to fresh winds
will prevail elsewhere, except diminishing to light to gentle in
the lee of Cuba late in the weekend. Northerly swell may impact
the Atlantic Passages this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N64W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of
the trough. A weak cold front extends from 31N67W to 27N72W.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are west of the
trough. A 1019 mb low is centered near 27.5N26W. Scattered
moderate convection is over the NE semicircle of the low. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 1-12 ft are within 210 nm NW of the
low. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion
waters with fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevailing.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will move across
the northern waters through Sat. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of
the waters south of 29N by the end of the week and into the
weekend. Rough seas will build across these waters as a result.
Winds and seas will start to decrease later in the weekend as the
high shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off
the SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
AL
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700
AXNT20 KNHC 281008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Mar 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 12N16W and continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 04N20W to 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is occurring from the equator to 05N between
18W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 00N
to 03N between 26W and 40W, and from 00N to 05N between 40W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure over the western Atlantic has a ridge extending
across Florida into the Gulf region while a surface trough is off
the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient
between these features is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, accompanied by moderate to rough seas.
An area of numerous showers and thunderstorms is noted over the NW
Gulf, mainly N of 25N and W of 95W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also affecting the west-central Gulf. This
convective activity is associated with a vigorous mid to upper
level trough moving across the region.

For the forecast, as the above mentioned high pressure moves
eastward across the Atlantic, winds will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds during the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside below
8 ft by Sat night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds are expected
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula during the evening
hours due to local effects. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf by Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. Moderate
to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of
the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Shallow moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow is moving westward across the region, producing
isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the
Colombian low will support pulsing winds near gale force at night
and early morning hours through Sun night into Mon morning. Fresh
to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage
will persist through tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola through the upcoming
weekend and into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will
prevail elsewhere. NE swell will impact the Atlantic Passages this
weekend building seas to around 8 f.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N70W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are active within 180 nm ahead of the front, and near
a pre-frontal trough that extends from 27N58W to 21N65W. Fresh to
strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas dominate the waters
west of the trough/front. The front and the pre-frontal trough
break up the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic, anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure cell off the Carolinas, and a 1035 mb high
pressure area localed SW of the Azores near 37N36W. This pattern
supports fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas across much
of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic between 20W and 60W.
Outside of this large region, NE to E winds are moderate to locally
fresh with prevailing moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move SE across
the forecast waters through late Sat while weakening. Expect fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas of up to 12 ft in the wake
of the front. High pressure will follow the front. Winds and seas
will start to decrease later in the weekend as the high pressure
shifts eastward and weakens. Another cold front may move off the
SE United States coast by early Tue.

$$
GR
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459
AXNT20 KNHC 291011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Mar 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to near
03N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 01N30W to 03S44W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator
to 06N between 10W and 20W, and from 00N to 03N between 20W and 50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A mid to upper level low continues to move across the lower
Mississippi Valley supporting a squall line in the north central
Gulf, and additional thunderstorms over parts of Louisiana. A
surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure centered over
the western Atlantic near Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf
waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over
Mexico is supporting a large area of fresh to strong E to SE winds
across most of the basin, including the Straits of Florida where
scatterometer data indicate winds of 25 to 30 kt. Recent buoy
observations and altimeter data confirm the presence of moderate
to rough seas within these winds. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are likely
occurring in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, the squall line will likely weaken through the
morning. The surface high pressure will drift slowly eastward across
the western Atlantic this weekend, allowing winds to diminish to
moderate to fresh speeds by this afternoon, with seas then subsiding
below 8 ft by late today. A cold front is forecast to enter the
NW Gulf on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico
by Tue morning before dissipating.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent satellite derived winds data provide observations of fresh
to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Venezuela, in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba, and across
the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure
gradient between high pressure located over the western Atlantic
near Bermuda and low pressure over northwestern Colombia. Moderate
seas dominate the area, with the exception of moderate to rough
seas off the coast of Colombia. Patches of low level moisture,
embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across the
region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the high pressure located near Bermuda will
drift slowly eastward through the weekend, and combine with the
Colombian low to support winds pulsing to near gale force at night
and during the early morning hours offshore of Colombia through
Mon morning. Fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, and in the
Windward Passage will persist through this morning. Similar wind
speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and south of Hispaniola
through early next week, and across the eastern Caribbean through
Mon morning. Large E swell will impact the Tropical Atlantic
waters and Caribbean Passages this weekend through Wed, building
seas 8 to 10 ft.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast area near 31N48W, and
continues SW to 24N60W where it becomes a stationary front and
extends to near the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few clusters of
showers and thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary.
Recent scatterometer and altimeter data indicate a large area of
strong to near-gale force winds NW of the front, with seas up to
13 ft in the open waters outside of the Bahamas. High pressure of
1030 mb located near Bermuda follows the front. Farther east, a
1008 mb low pressure is spinning west of the Canary Islands near
27N23W. This low is producing some shower activity, strong to near
gale force winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 24N between
21W and 25W based on altimeter data. Fresh trade winds and seas to
8 to 9 ft are noted in the tropical Atlantic west of 35W. Moderate
winds and seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure located near the
Bermuda will drift slowly eastward through the weekend, as the
front moves SE and gradually weakens, and becomes E to W aligned
along about 22N-23N by late today. Expect fresh to strong NE to E
winds and seas up to 12 ft N of the front. Winds and seas will
start to decrease tonight through Sun as the high pressure shifts
eastward of Bermuda and weakens through the middle of next week.
Another cold front will move off the SE United States coast by
early Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones by early Wed.

$$
GR
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521
AXNT20 KNHC 301018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N17W.
The ITCZ axis extends from 03N17W to 02S30W to 03S40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 20W
and 32W, and near 02N11W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends westward from a 1031 mb high pressure
located east of Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico
while a low pressure dominates NE Mexico. This pattern supports
moderate to fresh SE winds, with the exception of gentle to
moderate NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. In addition,
scatterometer and altimeter data indicate an area of fresh to
strong SE winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft across the Straits of
Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
over the NE and north-central parts of the Gulf. Areas of fog are
noted over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region early this
week producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink across the NW
and N central Gulf late on Mon, and extend from the Florida Big
Bend to central Texas by Tue morning before dissipating. High
pressure will then build westward across the Gulf Tue night through
Thu to support fresh to strong southerly winds across most of the
basin and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends north of the region, anchored by a 1031 mb high
pressure area located east of Bermuda. A relatively tight pressure
gradient persists between the ridge and the Colombian low. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed that this pattern continues
to support strong to near-gale force winds off the coast of Colombia.
Recent observations also indicate fresh to strong E winds along the
Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within the strongest winds off Colombia,
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean. Seas
of 3 to 5 ft are evident in the NW Caribbean, except in the Gulf
of Honduras where seas of 5 to 7 ft are observed. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving westward across
the region, producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area combined with the
Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds
and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Thu. Large E swell will continue to impact
the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of the
week, building seas 8 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, high pressure will
again build N of the Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the week
to bring a significantly strengthen in the trade wind flow and
building seas across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 31N44W to 25N60W, where
it is dissipating toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. A few
showers and isolated thunderstorms are active northeast of the
Turks and Caicos Islands and east of the southern Bahamas to the
north of the dissipating front. A 1031 mb high pressure is
centered east of Bermuda near 32N57W. This pattern is supporting
fresh to strong E winds mainly south of 27N and west of 50W, with
8 to 11 ft seas in NE to E swell. Farther east, a 1008 mb low
pressure is centered NW of the Canary Islands near 31N21W. A band
of showers and thunderstorms is just N of the low center affecting
the waters from 30N to 33N between 17W and 28W. Part of this
convective activity reaches the Madeira Islands. Fresh to strong
winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are also noted on the northern
semicircle of the low center. Moderate to fresh trades and
moderate to rough seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located E of Bermuda
will drift slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon. As a result,
winds and seas will diminish across the forecast region. However,
an area fresh to strong E winds will persist along the southern
periphery of the associated ridge affecting mainly the waters S of
25N through Mon night into Tue. At that time, a cold front will
move off the SE United States coast and weaken quickly across the
far NW zones by early Wed. High pressure will then build again
across the region Wed night through Thu night, bringing an
increase in winds and seas mainly across the south waters.

$$
GR
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778
AXNT20 KNHC 302324
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues west-southwestward to
near 04N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ axis to the
Equator at 30W and west-southwestward to just inland the coast
of Brazil at 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between
28W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
north of the ITCZ between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure stretches
westward along 33N to across the southern United States. The
associated gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast
return flow over the basin. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range.
Scattered moderate convection moving eastward is over most of
north-central and northeastern Florida. It is primarily being
driven by a mid-level shortwave trough as seen in water vapor
imagery. Similar activity moving eastward is over the western
Florida panhandle and over extreme southern Alabama and
southeastern Mississippi.

Patchy to areas of dense sea fog are expected to develop tonight
and into Mon morning, and possibly again on Mon night, along
some sections of the Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts
limiting visibility to 1 nm or less.

For the forecast, the aforementioned western Atlantic ridge
will dominate the Gulf weather pattern through Mon, producing a
gentle to moderate return flow and slight to moderate seas. A
weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW and north-
central Gulf coastal waters late on Mon, and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north
and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across
the Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong
southeast to south winds across most of the basin and moderate
to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is resulting in fresh to strong
trades over the central and northeastern sections of the basin.
Strong to near gale-force winds are just north of Colombia.
Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as seen
in the most recent scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are
7 to 10 ft north of Colombia and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. No
significant deep convection is presently observed.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are weakening over some
areas of central and eastern Cuba.

For the forecast, high pressure centered east of Bermuda will
combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia
through the middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages most of the week, maintaining seas of 8 to 10 ft.
Looking ahead, high pressure will again become re-established
north of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and
bring about a significant increase in winds and seas across most
of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough, remnants of a former stationary front, extends from
near 31N41W southwestward to 24N5W. No deep convection is noted
with this feature, however, scattered to broken low clouds with
possible isolated showers are north of 28N between 41W and 49W.
Similar clouds also with possible isolated showers are seen from
25N to 28N between 49W and 65W. These clouds are moving westward.
A trough in the eastern Atlantic extends from a 1010 mb low that
is north of the area near 33N22W southwestward to 23N29W. Fresh
winds are located north of 28N on both sides of the trough. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft in NE long-period swell north of 25N between 25W
and 33W. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure of 1029 mb located just north of the area east of
Bermuda near 32N59W and relatively lower pressure in the ITCZ
region is producing fresh to strong trades south of 27N east of
72W as noted by the latest scatterometer satellite data passes.
Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northeast to
east swell. Elsewhere, latest scatterometer satellite data
passes generally indicate gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds, except for gentle to moderate northeast to east winds
north of 27N between 50W and 64W, gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds north of 27N between 64W and 72W, and moderate
to fresh east to southeast winds west of 72W. Seas elsewhere are
7 to 9 ft in long-period east swell, except for lower seas of 4
to 7 ft north of 29N west of 55W.

Satellite imagery reveals scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over the waters offshore the Florida peninsula from 25N to 30N.
This activity is being aided by a mid-level shortwave trough
that is crossing the Florida peninsula from west to east.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extends westward along 33N
from high pressure that is centered east of Bermuda. The high
will move slowly eastward and weaken some through Mon night. As
a result, winds and seas will diminish modestly across the
forecast area Mon afternoon through Mon night. A cold front will
move off the southeastern United States coast late Tue and
weaken quickly across the far northwest zones early Wed. High
pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed
night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly
over the waters south of 24N.

$$
Aguirre
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634
AXNT20 KNHC 311017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues west-southwestward to
near 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02S43W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing S of 04N
and W of 14W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic through the
northern Gulf. A trough is setting up over the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. Data from platforms in the northwest Gulf show
areas of fog reducing visibility to 2 to 4 miles. Advisories are
in effect for dense fog along the coast of Louisiana and the
Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds are probably ongoing east
of the trough along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Gentle to moderate SE breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4
ft over the eastern Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft over most of the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
today, producing a gentle to moderate return flow and slight to
moderate seas. A weak cold front is forecast to sink into the NW
and N central Gulf coastal waters tonight, and extend from the
Florida Big Bend to SE Texas by Tue morning before lifting north
and dissipating. High pressure will then build westward across the
Gulf Tue night through Fri to support fresh to strong SE to S
winds across most of the basin and moderate to rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area
and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is resulting in fresh to
strong trades over the central and northeastern sections of the
basin. Trades elsewhere are in the gentle to moderate range as
seen in earlier scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 8 to
9 ft north of Colombia, 3 to 6 ft in the far northwest Caribbean
and 4 to 8 ft elsewhere. No significant deep convection is
presently observed.

For the forecast, the high pressure east of Bermuda will combine
with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas off the coast of Colombia through the
middle of the week. Similar wind speeds are also expected in the
Gulf of Honduras through Wed. Large E swell will continue to
impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean Passages most of
the week, maintaining rough seas. High pressure will relocate N
of the Caribbean Sea Wed afternoon through Fri night and bring a
significant increase in winds and seas across most of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad high pressure dominates the western Atlantic, anchored by
1028 mb high pressure just east of Bermuda. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas
over open Atlantic waters west of 35W. Strong winds and seas to 9
ft are noted N of Hispaniola S of 21N between 71W-74W. Farther
east, 1008 mb low pressure is centered west of Madeira, with a
trough extending from the low to 23N20W. Fresh N winds and 8 ft
seas are noted west of the trough to 28W, and north of 27N.
Moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere
east of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure E of Bermuda
extends a ridge across the basin. The high will drift slowly
eastward and weaken through tonight. As a result, winds and seas
will diminish modestly across the forecast area through that
period. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late
Tue and weaken quickly across the far NW zones early Wed. High
pressure will then build southward again across the region Wed
night through Fri, bringing an increase in winds and seas, mainly
across the waters S of 24N.

$$
ERA
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289
AXNT20 KNHC 011005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the
coast of Guinea near 11N15W and southwestward to near 03N20W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03S30W to near coast of Brazil
at 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 01N to 03N
between 05W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A portion of a stationary front extends over the coast of Texas.
To the SW, the typical thermal trough is analyzed over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge extends from the
western Atlantic across the Florida Peninsula to the central Gulf.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas
along the northern western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, but
mostly gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere across the
Gulf. Platforms over the northwestern and north-central Gulf are
again indicating areas of sea fog, with visibility of 2 to 4 miles.

For the forecast, the surface trough prevails over the Yucatan Peninsula
with fresh SE to NE winds over the Bay of Campeche. Areas of
dense fog has developed in the NW Gulf, with visibilities below 1
sm expected at times through the morning hours. A similar pattern
is expected tonight. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE to S winds will
develop tonight across much of the basin west of 85W, as the
pressure gradient tightens in the area. Building rough seas are
expected in this region Wed morning through late week. East of
85W, moderate SE winds tonight will strengthen to fresh to strong
speeds Wed into Thu, including through the Florida Straits.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the
area and a 1008 mb over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the central Caribbean coast and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of
80W. Moderate to fresh winds are found over the western
Caribbean. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail east of 80W, with seas in the
4-6 ft range west of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will pulse
tonight offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through
Tue. Winds are expected to strengthen to near-gale force Wed
through the weekend as the pressure gradient strengthens between
the Colombian low and high pressure building over the western
Atlantic. Very rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras today,
then winds will increase to near-gale force speeds and rough seas
develop for the second half of the week. Large E swell will
continue to impact the Tropical Atlantic waters and Caribbean
Passages most of the week, maintaining rough seas. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds, with strong pulses, are expected
across the remainder of the Caribbean through Wed, then widespread
fresh to strong winds and rough seas dominate the basin Thu into
the upcoming weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Thunderstorms associated with a mid level short wave trough moving
across the southeastern United States are regenerating over the
Gulf Stream, mainly between 70W-77W. Farther east, broad high
pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, anchored by a strong 1032
mb high center that is located over the north- central Atlantic
near 36N45W. The associated gradient supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas over open Atlantic waters west
of 42W. A cold front is moving through the central Atlantic into
the eastern Atlantic is just reaching 30N between 33W and 43W. No
significant weather is occurring with this front. Winds are 20 kt
or less near the front, however, rough seas in long-period NW
swell follow the front. In the eastern part of the area, gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 20N and east
of about 40W. Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 6 to 7 ft
are present elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S winds and rough
seas will continue through this morning north of 30N well off the
coast of Florida to 70W, as the pressure gradient strengthens
between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure
moving through the eastern United States. A cold front associated
with the low pressure system will push offshore of the
southeastern U.S. today, and winds behind the front will turn to
the W and weaken in its wake. Elsewhere, high pressure over the
central Atlantic will drift slowly eastward today, and fresh to
strong trade winds will pulse along the periphery of the ridge,
mainly south of 25N. Rough seas will accompany these winds. High
pressure will develop over the western Atlantic by Wed. A
tightening pressure gradient between the high and the Colombian
low will support fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas
across the waters south of 27N, including through the Atlantic
Passages into the Caribbean.

$$
ERA
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