352
AXNT20 KNHC 171048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Feb 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Long period NW swell prevails over the central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters supporting seas in the 12 to 21 ft range in the
wake of a cold front that extends from 31N25W SW to 24N50W. Long
period swell will continue to affect the central subtropical
waters today and the eastern waters through Tue night as the
front moves inland northern Africa Tue morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of NW
Liberia, to 02N16W and 01N20W. The ITCZ continues from 01N20W to
01S30W to 01S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 02N
between 09W to 20W, and from 00N to 07N between 20W and 52W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from Cape Coral, Florida to 22N90W to the
Bay of Campeche near 18N94W while a strong ridge is building in
its wake. This scenario is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds
across most of the basin and behind the front along with rough
seas to 10 ft. Off Veracruz, NW winds remain strong to near gale-
force and seas are 11 to 14 ft. Aside from the winds and seas,
scattered showers are isolated tstms are ongoing in the vicinity
of the front tail in the W Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken and extend across
the Florida Straits to the northern Yucatan offshore waters this
evening before moving E of the area tonight. Moderate to fresh
winds and rough seas will prevail behind the front across the
basin this morning, except for strong to near gale-force winds
offshore of Veracruz. Another cold front will enter the northwestern
Gulf by midweek and progress southeastward, leading to fresh to
near gale-force winds across northern and western portions of the
basin. Gale-force winds will be likely west of the front off
Tampico, Mexico Wed, and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated showers are ongoing over the NW Caribbean ahead of an
approaching cold front moving across the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and tstms are occuring over the offshore waters
between Colombia and Panama associated with the E extension of
the Pacific monsoon. Due to this approaching front, winds remain
gentle to moderate from the east over the NW basin, except for
locally fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. High pressure
anchored over the central subtropical Atlantic waters and
associated ridge continue to support moderate to fresh trades
elsewhere, except locally strong winds and rough seas offshore
Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
are expected across the central, eastern and portions of the SW
basin this week, with locally strong to near gale-force winds and
rough seas offshore of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds, and
slight to moderate seas, will prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Otherwise, rough seas in E swell will prevail the entire week E of
the Lesser Antilles.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N73W to Stuart, Florida with moderate
to fresh W to NW winds affecting the offshores N of the Bahamas,
and fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, affecting mainly
the offshore waters N of 28N. Rough seas to 10 ft are also
affecting the offshore waters N 29N. A leading cold front extends
from 31N25W to 24N49W. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind
this front N of 28N. Very rough seas in long period NW swell
continue to affect the central and eastern saubtropical waters.
Otherwise, surface high pressure of 1024 mb is anchored over the
central Atlantic subtropical waters near 29N50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from 31N73W
to Stuart, Florida will reach from 31N59W to 26N69W tonight, and
move E of 55W Tue night into early Wed morning. Fresh to strong SW
winds will prevail ahead of the front north of 29N today, and
diminish this evening as the front moves eastward. Rough seas over
much of the waters E of 65W will prevail through tonight. Fresh
to strong SE winds will develop over the central and NE Florida
offshore waters on Wed morning ahead of the next cold front
forecast to come off the coast Wed afternoon. The front will reach
from 31N75W to Port St Lucie, Florida Wed night, from 31N63W to
the central Bahamas and central Cuba Thu night, and from 29N55W to
the Windward Passage Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will be
ahead and behind this second front N of 27N through Fri.

$$
Ramos
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