ACUS11 KWNS 081746
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081746=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0075
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and
northern Ohio

Concerning...Freezing rain=20

Valid 081746Z - 082245Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late
afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear
possible.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform
precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming
established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases
within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This
trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as
warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds.
This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft,
and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface.
Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across
northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that
wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset
of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few
locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports
of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes.

Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be
running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which
suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF
probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic
solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well
and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These
solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest
across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with
accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible.

..Moore.. 02/08/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Ybh57fa1NJec5N-puqtSWQMqjIs1Yx5MrMokI7OK9jc478GpYjNdWRTZKeQTETSQqfP7FrPA= jrG7jSM1nSBbYT_zq4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 41538171 41628148 41638112 41498087 41158069 40818063
40608068 40508089 40388127 40288194 40258286 40288366
40378450 40558534 40838623 41098637 41498633 41818603
41918551 41828398 41718339 41448268 41418245 41478206
41538171=20


=3D =3D =3D
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