ACUS11 KWNS 311846
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311845=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-312115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025

Areas affected...FL Panhandle...southeast AL...southwest GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311845Z - 312115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A low-topped convective band is moving eastward across
parts of southeast AL and the FL Panhandle early this afternoon,
with somewhat deeper convection noted near the immediate coast and
just offshore. With only weak midlevel lapse rates in place and
stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain generally displaced
north of the richer low-level moisture, convection may tend to
remain disorganized. However, modest diurnal heating of a relatively
moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 250-500
J/kg range downstream of ongoing convection, and effective shear (as
depicted on the KEVX VWP) remains rather strong. Modest
intensification remains possible with time this afternoon, and
localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out in areas where
relatively stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates
can continue.

..Dean/Hart.. 01/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9EE5PgWVZveDfwejbUc4UmSO7KEGbBg7pimy6xh4ovbdgSSTexGMUomtzymB73j0RbYn9_RbD= FmyQq8GDB6D9-NnjrM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30388674 31518579 31958527 31868470 31348444 30828465
30478489 30078512 29628522 29758540 30048578 30148622
30388674=20


=3D =3D =3D
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