ACUS11 KWNS 311936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311935=20
WVZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-312130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Areas affected...parts of southwestern Virginia...eastern West
Virginia and adjacent portions of Maryland/Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 311935Z - 312130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...At least in the near term, the potential for strong
surface gusts is expected to diminish with lingering convection
spreading into and across the Allegheny Mountains toward the Blue
Ridge through 4-5 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...Convectively enhanced surface gusts have increased a
bit in number and strength along the western slopes of the Allegheny
Mountains. This is where low-level lapse rates have become rather
steep in response to continuing insolation and mid-level cooling.=20
Across the higher terrain into the eastern slopes of the Allegheny
mountains and Blue Ridge, the boundary-layer remains cooler and more
stable to both updrafts and downward mixing of momentum. Although
this could be modified somewhat by the mid-level cooling, convection
and potential for strong surface gusts seem likely to diminish
during the next hour or two as forcing for ascent spreads eastward.

..Kerr/Hart.. 12/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_obX1qzPe5kWlB-fkKRC5y-JBTBB5GTgQJldmTe_wydc8bTKCokdLjSBkJde7nR-jiHR2KvdK= jude3r9xQ6plfFxA-o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...

LAT...LON 38278127 39637991 39277902 37678019 36628127 36968245
38278127=20


=3D =3D =3D
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