ACUS11 KWNS 261914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261914=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-262115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2285
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Areas affected...Southeastern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 715...

Valid 261914Z - 262115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 715 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across much of southeast Texas
as storms intensify across the region.

DISCUSSION...Storm intensification across southeast TX has been
gradual over the past several hours with most storms struggling to
maintain intensity, possibly owing to numerous destructive storm interactions/colliding outflows. Despite this, the overall trend has
been towards more intense updrafts as evidence by colder cloud-top
temperatures in GOES IR imagery with the stronger pulses.
Additionally, KHGX velocity data has shown a few weak, but
persistent, low/mid-level mesocyclones with some of the stronger
storms. Environmentally, temperatures continue to warm into the
upper 60s to mid 70s ahead of a broken line of storms (delineating
the primary surface trough) along the TX coast, and KHGX VWP
observations have sampled strengthening winds through the 1-3 km
layer over the past 2 hours with 0-1 km SRH between 150-200 m2/s2.
Further east into far southeast TX, cooler temperatures are yielding
less buoyancy compared to areas further southwest along the coast,
but southeasterly winds are supporting effective SRH on the order of
200-250 m2/s2 based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. Latest
high-res guidance suggests that the environment will continue to
become more favorable for well-organized convection as the surface
low deepens to the north, and given the aforementioned convective
trends, further intensification appears probable through late
afternoon. In the short term, the greatest severe/tornado risk will
likely be associated with the stronger cells within the line
approaching the Houston area and in far southeast TX where low-level mesocyclones associated with persistent supercells have been noted.

..Moore.. 12/26/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_bgnhZIVBRKb4pQotge-OcUHWOdc0nlJo_Oc2A8bci5Jm0KD9bz_E5dA3ma4aQJDfuaXGGXPQ= vM-aA9ulbWWe1nroT0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...

LAT...LON 28589690 29309651 30079628 30639623 31109635 31629605
32079527 32179469 31959401 31439368 31109355 30579357
30209381 29889413 29309492 28929558 28729601 28569637
28519655 28479676 28479683 28489691 28589690=20


=3D =3D =3D
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