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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2278

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 25 02:50:00 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 250249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250249=20
    TXZ000-250415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2278
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0849 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

    Valid 250249Z - 250415Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail remains the primary concern across the southern
    portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712 through at least 04Z.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar data shows ongoing semi-discrete
    supercells tracking slowly east-southeastward along the pre-frontal
    confluence zone in central/southeast TX. The EWX VWP continues to
    sample around 35-40 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented mostly perpendicular
    to the low-level zone of ascent. This, combined with favorable
    buoyancy/steep midlevel lapse rates (see CRP 00Z sounding), will
    support the maintenance of these semi-discrete supercells. The
    primary risk with these storms continues to be large hail (generally
    up to 1.75 inches), though an isolated 2 inch hailstone cannot be
    ruled out. As midlevel height falls/large-scale ascent continues
    overspreading this activity ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough,
    storms may tend to grow upscale into a line, generally reducing the
    hail threat. Locally damaging gusts will still be possible, though
    increasing nocturnal static stability may lessen the threat to some
    extent.

    ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-wEwXcW1o9TdVM7ArqSVynXR6KhtFf3do7frxrDUZQd1YszdqsyxMrIP4hZZBcUc61Gn7Sag8= Bmu7AUtNoelXQEv-cY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29219800 30499682 30539654 30259628 29749651 28949730
    28939763 29029791 29219800=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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