ACUS11 KWNS 202159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202158=20
NMZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...Eastern to north-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202158Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat should increase into the early evening
across parts of northern to eastern New Mexico. Large hail should be
the main threat, but a tornado or two along with a localized severe
gust is also possible. Uncertainty exists with the timing of greater
than very isolated coverage, which impacts the expected peak
intensity.

DISCUSSION...Convection has gradually increased across mainly the
north-central to northeast portion of NM, with a more recent
increase over the past 30 min just east of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Other CU/small CB towers are widely spaced south into
southeast NM as well. The environment, especially with southern
extent where boundary-layer heating has been more pronounced, is
conditionally favorable for supercells with strong effective bulk
shear and mid/upper-level hodograph elongation. Recent HRRR guidance
suggests initial activity should mainly pose a rather isolated large
hail threat, with magnitude of 1-1.5 inch along the northern
periphery of weak surface-based buoyancy. A more robust severe
threat could develop towards 00-02Z if discrete supercells can
become sustained farther south as a low-level jet intensifies from
the Permian Basin northward. This could support a greater large hail
and tornado threat during the early to mid-evening. But this
potential increase may be short-lived, given onset of nocturnal
cooling amid limited spatial extent of stronger heating west of the
persistent stratocu deck still present over far east-central to
northeast NM.

..Grams/Hart.. 10/20/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7UhEs7RyN5_RX-g4BbwLu4lxR3WOHBchuByy8JtGVaBiw0XYZTN71EmysKlj4hIX8PKw9Qweg= bAuMXQhFxou7DOUqdc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36050643 36350448 36610385 36770365 36780306 36150324
35590349 34270375 33920381 33560418 33440462 33490494
34040518 34730551 34950583 35400636 35780670 36050643=20


=3D =3D =3D
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