ACUS03 KWNS 301739
SWODY3
SPC AC 301738

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A quiet mid-level pattern for thunderstorms is expected across much
of the CONUS with zonal flow over the north and a series of anticyclones/ridging across the south. Stable conditions in the
north should preclude thunderstorm development with embedded
low-amplitude shortwave impulses. Across the south, isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible over the FL Peninsula, centered
on the central portion, where the sea breeze should provide
sufficient lift during the afternoon. Very isolated thunderstorms
are also possible within a portion of the Mogollon Rim where limited
mid-level moisture remains.

..Grams.. 09/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010710
SWODY3
SPC AC 010708

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Generally zonal flow aloft is expected to continue across the
northern CONUS. Upper-level ridging will remain in place across the central/southern CONUS. At the surface, a weakening cold front will
be positioned along the Gulf Coast into northern Florida. A
secondary, stronger cold front will move southward into the central
Plains extending northeastward into the Midwest.

Typical diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected in parts of the
Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a very weak disturbance
moving northward through the central Gulf may promote additional
thunderstorms from southeastern Louisiana into the Florida
Panhandle. Some elevated instability is possible near the cold front
in northern Missouri as mid-level cooling and modest 850 mb
moistening occurs. Given the weak low-level jet and limited
moisture, convective development appears unlikely.

..Wendt.. 10/01/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011919
SWODY3
SPC AC 011918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Discussion...
Fast, weakly cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northern
half of the U.S. Thursday, while slack flow -- and weak ridging --
prevails over the south. Low-level moisture/instability will remain
confined to the southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast states through
the period.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible across
Florida, focused near diurnal/sea-breeze boundaries. Some potential
for lightning will also evolve across the central Gulf Coast region,
as a weak mid-level disturbance over the Gulf drifts northward.
Given limited buoyancy and generally weak flow aloft, severe-weather
risk will remain low.

..Goss.. 10/01/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020720
SWODY3
SPC AC 020719

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Ridging aloft will continue in the southern half of the CONUS on
Friday. A lead upper-level shortwave will move through the upper
Great Lakes into the Northeast while a stronger trough will move
through the Northwest and northern Rockies. At the surface a cold
front will progress eastward together with the lead trough into the
Northeast, reaching southwestward into the central Plains. A deep
surface cyclone will develop in the Canadian Prairie in response to
the western upper trough.

Thunderstorms will again be possible along the Gulf Coast near the
remnant, weak boundary. Diurnally driven storms are also expected in
parts of the Florida Peninsula. Additional storms may develop in the
southern Appalachians with a northward moving weak disturbance.
Farther west, isolated thunderstorms may develop in central Idaho as
strong mid-level ascent overspreads the terrain.

..Wendt.. 10/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021927
SWODY3
SPC AC 021926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...
Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the
U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt
of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the
country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually
reaching New England.

While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface
cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable
instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of
the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible
-- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft
remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe
weather is not expected.

..Goss.. 10/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030723
SWODY3
SPC AC 030722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level shortwave trough will make quick progress
across the northern Plains and move into the upper Mississippi
Valley by early evening. A deep surface cyclone within the Canadian
Prairie will move east along with its parent upper-level system.
Attendant to this cyclone, a cold front will quickly through
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and eventually much of Michigan by early
Sunday morning.

...Upper-Mississippi Valley Vicinity...
Ahead of the cold front, some moisture return is expected to occur.
However, this moisture return will have no connection to the Gulf
due to a previous frontal passage to near the Gulf Coast. Lack of
low-level moisture will likely preclude any potential for
surface-based storms. By early evening, strong mid-level ascent,
linear frontal forcing, and 850 mb warm air advection should promote
scattered storm development from the Mississippi Valley into parts
of Wisconsin. Deep-layer winds will be strong, but effective shear
will only be marginal given the elevated nature of the convection.
500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE could support some stronger updrafts that could
produce small hail. The marginal effective shear and messy storm
modes should preclude any greater risk.

..Wendt.. 10/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031920
SWODY3
SPC AC 031919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream
flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and
eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday.
Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across
the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts
southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains,
and the Upper Midwest region, through the period.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect
southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and
thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across
the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest
low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests
that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable
boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through
the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts --
possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds --
may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears
likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be
included at this time.

..Goss.. 10/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040716
SWODY3
SPC AC 040716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the middle and upper Ohio
Valley as well across the Gulf Coast Sunday. Severe thunderstorms
are not currently anticipated.

...Middle/Upper OH Valley...
A maturing mid-latitude cyclone will likely be over northwest
Ontario early Sunday morning. A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude
shortwave troughs will move through the base of this cyclone during
the period, helping induce a more negative tilt while also pulling
the cyclone eastward.

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded
over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary
triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday,
with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the
Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern
Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing
eastward/southeastward as well. Some low-level moisture return is
anticipated ahead of this front across the middle/upper OH Valley,
although the best moisture will be confined to a narrow axis just
ahead of the front. This buoyancy, coupled with increasing
large-scale forcing for ascent, could contribute to enough buoyancy
for thunderstorm development along and just ahead of the front.
However, the quality of this moisture return and associated buoyancy
remain uncertain, with the veered low-level flow ahead of the front
and narrow character of the warm sector also limiting factors. Low predictability within this scenario merits precluding introducing
low severe probabilities with this outlook.

...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula...
Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day
across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure
remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the
moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041904
SWODY3
SPC AC 041903

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and
Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper
Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly
deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper
OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm
sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across
the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile,
cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around
6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across
western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg).
Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with
southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along
the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid
other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be
possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with
this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late
afternoon/early evening.

..Leitman.. 10/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050659
SWODY3
SPC AC 050658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A dry, post-frontal airmass is forecast to be in place from the northern/central Plains eastward across much of the OH and TN
Valleys early Monday morning. This airmass is expected to push
farther east/southeast throughout the day as a cold front continues
to progress southward across the Southeast. Modest low-level
moisture will precede this front, but warm mid-level temperatures
will limit thunderstorm chances across the Southeast. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible across FL where deeper moisture will
already be in place and low-level easterlies persist. Thunderstorm
development is not anticipated elsewhere across the CONUS, aside
from a few early morning flashes near Long Island and just off the
NJ coast.

..Mosier.. 10/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051910
SWODY3
SPC AC 051909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on
Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states.
Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a
surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf
coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will
preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold
front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture
and modest instability.

Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the
Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical
cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning.

..Leitman.. 10/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060731
SWODY3
SPC AC 060730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula.

...Western Florida Peninsula...
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton
to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of
Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach
the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night.
Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient
for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida
Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the
coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range
concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added
for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the
greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton
changes.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061900
SWODY3
SPC AC 061859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...

Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,
approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning.
Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the
hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the
Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will
become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast
dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level
instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected
Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the
Peninsula and Keys.

..Leitman.. 10/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070708
SWODY3
SPC AC 070707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as
Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures
are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over
western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will
continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the
Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this
broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley.

While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection
near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK,
overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these
areas.

Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane
Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula
Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL
Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints.
This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to
support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during
afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields
are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk
for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071916
SWODY3
SPC AC 071915

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Florida...

Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening,
before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday
morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane
will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the
system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings
indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to
greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton.
Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability,
and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the
rainbands of Milton.

..Leitman.. 10/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080650
SWODY3
SPC AC 080649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St.
Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this
system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone
Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic
flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the
base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects
quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing
off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the
Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the
eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only
exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton.

Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to
deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from
the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a
shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely
drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning
flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with
this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures
across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a
hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning
before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western
Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position,
wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so
ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still
in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk
within any deeper, more persistent convection.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081912
SWODY3
SPC AC 081911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Florida...

The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the
center of Hurricane Milton over the central FL Peninsula Thursday
morning. The hurricane is expected to track northeast through the
day, moving offshore the FL east coast during the late morning or
afternoon. This forecast position will result in mostly veering south/southwesterly low-level flow across the central and southern
Peninsula through the period. However, low-level hodographs will
remain favorably curved given strong vertical speed shear. The very
moist boundary-layer, with mid-70s F dewpoints, will provide
sufficient low-level instability to sustain some stronger updrafts,
and isolated rotating cells within rainbands will continue to pose a
risk for a couple of tornadoes through Thursday afternoon.

..Leitman.. 10/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090713
SWODY3
SPC AC 090712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A belt of enhanced westerlies will likely extend from the Canadian
Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into
New England. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is
forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec. A
surface low associated with this shortwave will take a similar path
while an attendant cold front pushes southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and the Upper/Mid MS Valley. Low-level
moisture ahead of this front will be scant, largely precluding
thunderstorm development. A few isolated flashes are possible in the
eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL vicinity early Saturday, but
coverage is expected to be less than 10%.

Relatively weak flow aloft and stable surface conditions are
anticipated elsewhere across the majority of the CONUS, precluding
thunderstorm development. Some moisture return is possible late
Friday/early Saturday across the TX Coastal Plain, but warm
temperatures aloft will prevent deep convection. Only area where
thunderstorm coverage is expected to exceed 10% is over the
eastern/southern FL Peninsula. Here, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
will support modest buoyancy during peak heating. Surface
northeasterlies and related low-level confluence may contribute to a
few thunderstorms during the afternoon.

..Mosier.. 10/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091913
SWODY3
SPC AC 091912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be minimal across much of the CONUS with
a couple exceptions where probabilities are around 10 percent.

First, a corridor of low-level warm theta-e advection, centered
around 750 mb, may linger into the late morning across eastern OK
and far northeast TX. This may support very isolated, elevated
thunderstorms beyond 12Z Friday before decaying by midday.

A shortwave trough will amplify somewhat across ON within a fast,
westerly flow regime. Elevated buoyancy appears scant at most. But
given the trailing lobe of forcing for ascent attendant to the
trough, very isolated thunderstorms might develop around midday
through the afternoon across the north-central Great Lakes region.

Scattered low-topped showers are likely within a northeasterly
low-level flow regime in the wake of TC Milton, along the east coast
of the FL Peninsula into south FL. Warm mid-level temperatures (-2
to -4 C at 500 mb) will yield poor lapse rates aloft. In conjunction
with appreciable dry air above the moist lower-levels, potential for
deep convection sustaining charge separation appears negligible.

..Grams.. 10/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100714
SWODY3
SPC AC 100713

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, but
the severe thunderstorm potential is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Enhanced westerly flow aloft is forecast to extend from the Canadian
Prairies eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the
Northeast, through the base of upper troughing covering much of
eastern Canada. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to
progress through these westerlies, including one that moves quickly northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes into the northern
Atlantic and another that is expected to move across the Upper
Midwest and Upper Great Lakes early Sunday morning. This overall
evolution will contribute to deepening cyclonic flow across much of
the central and eastern CONUS, while also reinforcing the
continental airmass over the region.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend across the OH
Valley into the central Plains. This boundary is expected to sharpen
throughout the day as the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave
trough progresses southeastward. Surface cyclogenesis appears likely
in the northern MO/IL vicinity, with the resultant low then moving northeastward along the frontal zone across the OH Valley. Warm-air
advection throughout the warm sector of this low combined with
cooling mid-level temperatures will result in modest buoyancy.
Warm-air advection will also combine with large-scale ascent to
provide the lift needed for showers and thunderstorms. Mid-level
flow will be strong enough to support updraft rotation and the
potential for a few instances of hail. However, coverage will be
minimized by limited buoyancy.

..Mosier.. 10/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101930
SWODY3
SPC AC 101929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is
currently expected to be low.

...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across
parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a
series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during
the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum
move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface
low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL
vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the
afternoon/evening.

Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will
support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by
afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential
for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated
convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front,
within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be
sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding
the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the
magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude
severe probabilities at this time.

...South FL and the Keys...
Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward
across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely
be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the
day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may
provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm
organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential
for more robust updrafts.

..Dean.. 10/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110649
SWODY3
SPC AC 110648

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF
WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky
through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a
risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain
amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale
troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio
Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of
vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one
of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a
frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a
plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across
the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models
indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer
ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of
modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday
afternoon.

...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia...
Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface
cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there
appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed
pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE
on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at
least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the
presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields,
including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level
height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late
Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive
to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111929
SWODY3
SPC AC 111928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST
OH...SOUTHWEST PA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and
northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest
Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging
wind gusts and possibly some hail.

...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over
the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong
shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the
lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is
forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts
of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to
diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low.
A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys
and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians.

Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the
front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating
will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from
the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best
through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be
possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually
strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough.
Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more
robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in
some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive
moisture/instability forecasts are realized.

..Dean.. 10/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120705
SWODY3
SPC AC 120704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will remain
modestly amplified, but still generally progressive through this
period and beyond. Within this regime, it appears that large-scale
troughing will continue to evolve across the Mississippi Valley
through the Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to be accompanied by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
into the Canadian Maritimes, and across the St. Lawrence Valley. As
a trailing perturbation digs across the Upper Midwest toward the
lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is likely to
build southward through the interior U.S. Monday through Monday
night.

It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance southeastward through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well
south of the mid-level cold core (becoming centered over the Great
Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little
appreciable risk for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across
the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual
mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a
remnant plume of tropical moisture, appears likely to gradually
shift across and southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and
Keys.

Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging is likely to continue
to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies.
However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may
generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the
west and southwest of the Four Corners region.

..Kerr.. 10/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121901
SWODY3
SPC AC 121900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of
the U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough, with embedded perturbations, will persist
across the eastern CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low continues to
meander over the Four Corners region. Widespread surface high
pressure behind a cold front will overspread the MS Valley toward
the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard, resulting in enough static
stability to limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The
cold front should be drifting southward across the FL Peninsula,
with thunderstorms possible across southern portions of the state by
afternoon. A couple of lightning flashes are also possible over
portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie (and immediate surrounding
landmass), as cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper
trough overspread relatively warm waters. Finally, cooler mid-level temperatures and associated lapse rates accompanying the cut-off low
may support a couple of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the
Four Corners given the assistance of orographic lift.

..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130640
SWODY3
SPC AC 130639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to
gradually amplify across the eastern U.S. Tuesday through Tuesday
night. As a significant embedded short wave impulse digs southeast
of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, peak amplitude may be
reached near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday.
In its wake, cool surface ridging is likely to encompass much of the
interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and southern Atlantic
Seaboard. However, surface cyclogenesis may commence to the
immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies by late
Tuesday night, as a significant mid-level trough, on the leading
edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the
mid-latitude Pacific, approaches the British Columbia/Pacific
Northwest coast.

Beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below
-30C) shifting across the Ohio Valley during the day, and another
remnant pocket of cold air aloft across the Four Corners vicinity,
diurnal convective development might become capable of producing
occasional lightning. Otherwise, relatively dry and/or stable
conditions appear likely to continue to prevail across much of the
U.S. through this period.

..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131928
SWODY3
SPC AC 131927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and
parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the
eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains
toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level
cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region.
Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established
over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions
of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler
temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates
by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and
orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners
may support a few lightning flashes as well.

..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131935
SWODY3
SPC AC 131934

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and
parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the
eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains
toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level
cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region.
Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established
over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most
locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions
of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler
temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates
by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and
orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners
may support a few lightning flashes as well.

..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140712
SWODY3
SPC AC 140711

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with
negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue
to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the
Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this
period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from
the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the
British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late
Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the
northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to
the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to
accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado
Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale
cyclonic flow.

In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an
increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical
western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the
Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo
considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through
early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a
developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well
offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates
east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may
linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while
stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into
lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity.

As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing
to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of
initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies
is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri
Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the
ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence
across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening
is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of
the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico.

Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening
surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through
eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the
risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather)
appears negligible.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141857
SWODY3
SPC AC 141856

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering the eastern CONUS
is forecast to move eastward on Wednesday, as an upper-level ridge
builds into parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest.
A mid/upper-level trough over much of the West is forecast to
gradually amplify through the period, as multiple embedded
shortwaves traverse the region. At the surface, a cold front will
continue moving southward across the central/northern Gulf of Mexico
into parts of south FL and Deep South TX. In the wake of the front,
an expansive surface ridge will inhibit low-level moisture return,
with instability remaining very limited to nil across most of the
CONUS.

Across Deep South TX, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible, with relatively rich moisture expected
to be in place prior to the frontal passage. While moderate buoyancy
may support a strong storm or two within this regime, generally weak
deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and north of
the Four Corners region, as a weak midlevel low initially over AZ
weakens and moves northeastward within broader cyclonic flow. Cold
temperatures aloft will support weak convection with potential for
sporadic lightning flashes across parts of western WA/OR. Some
lightning potential cannot be ruled out from northeast CA/northern
NV into the interior Northwest, though confidence in more than very
isolated flashes remains low at this time.

..Dean.. 10/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150705
SWODY3
SPC AC 150704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level
troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the
outset of the period, will become increasingly split while
continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is
forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the
Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis
will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of
interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the
Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late
Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes
region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the
higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the
southern Great Basin.

Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of
confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the
western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is
forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians
vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable
stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and
northern Gulf of Mexico.

...Pacific coast into Great Plains...
It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of
sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable
risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep
surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into
Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and
cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization
to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from
portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies
Thursday through Thursday night.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151920
SWODY3
SPC AC 151919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on
Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the
large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves
forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the
Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of
the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near
the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level
ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast.

Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the
central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an
earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe
potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into
the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High
Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with
isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm
coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the
southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the
southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the
developing mid/upper-level cyclone.

...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona...
Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO
River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by
Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level
cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual
moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support
some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least
isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night.
Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for
storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will
become sufficient to support any organized severe threat.

..Dean.. 10/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160719
SWODY3
SPC AC 160718

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity. Some of these may produce small to marginally
severe hail and a few potentially damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
While broad mid/upper ridging within the stronger westerlies begins
to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast,
a vigorous short wave impulse digging into the Southwest is forecast
to support lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/west of the
Wasatch into areas southwest of the Four Corners by Friday night.

To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper
Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained,
with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low
only slowly progressing offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath
this regime, models that indicate cold surface ridging centered near
the Appalachians will maintain a stable influence as far south and
west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region.

To the west of this surface ridging modest moisture return of Gulf
origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico
into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies.

...Southwest into Great Plains...
On modest initially southerly low-level flow, moisture return from
the Gulf of California may precede strengthening mid/upper forcing
for ascent and cooling aloft, near/north of the Greater Phoenix area
into the Mogollon Rim vicinity by late Friday morning. This may
support thunderstorm development which could produce some hail and
gusty winds. However, based on current forecast soundings, it
appears that this probably will remain below severe limits.

Otherwise, moisture return along weakening surface troughing, from
the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not
support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with
limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening.
However, late Friday evening into Friday night, NAM forecast
soundings indicate better low-level moisture return in the presence
of strengthening shear and forcing for ascent, near/east of the
Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa
vicinity. This may support CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, and perhaps
a few strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and
localized potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161921
SWODY3
SPC AC 161920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandle vicinity. Isolated small to marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts are possible.

...Arizona...

An upper low will develop over AZ as an upper trough develops east
toward the Four Corners region on Friday. This will bring a belt of
moderate southerly deep-layer flow over the Southwest. At the
surface, a moist axis will spread across southern AZ on
southwesterly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing front.
This may support a narrow corridor of organized thunderstorm
potential from near the Phoenix vicinity southward during the
morning and early afternoon hours as sufficient instability overlaps
strong deep-layer flow. If current trends persist, a marginal risk
for strong gusts and hail may be needed in subsequent outlooks,
though the overall corridor both spatially and temporarily appears
fairly small.

...Southern High Plains...

Southeasterly low-level flow will gradually transport modest Gulf
moisture southwestward across west TX into eastern NM through the
period. Mid/upper level south/southwesterly flow will also gradually
increase through the day as the western upper trough approaches the
Four Corners vicinity. However, as the upper low develops over AZ,
the core of stronger flow aloft will remain west of the region.
Nevertheless, low-level convergence along a weak surface
trough/dryline is expected during the late afternoon into evening.
Vertically veering wind profiles will result in effective shear
magnitudes around 25-30 kt, supporting marginal supercells. Midlevel
lapse rates will remain modest, and MLCAPE will generally be less
than 750 J/kg, but any better organized cell could produce locally
strong gusts or marginally severe hail during the evening.

..Leitman.. 10/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170717
SWODY3
SPC AC 170717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and
perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday
night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather.

...Synopsis...
Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will
prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified,
but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern
mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to
include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners.
Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast
Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations
pivoting around its periphery.

Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build
across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle
Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is
forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Gulf Coast.

Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is
likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow
will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and
contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly
cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow.

...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas...
With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the
Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de
Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico,
may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further
weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly
conducive to severe storm development. However, with some
additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool
mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000
J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing
favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave
perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the
mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly
after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread
within the model output concerning this feature.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171900
SWODY3
SPC AC 171859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains
Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for
severe weather.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...

An upper low over the Four Corners vicinity will only shift slight
northeast through the forecast period. On the eastern periphery of
this system, moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow will
persist over the southern High Plains. Southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints across the region, with
decreasing boundary-layer moisture with northward extent into the
central Plains. A weak surface trough/dryline will remain nearly
stationary through the period, resulting in low-level convergence in
a weak upslope flow regime. Cloudiness and ongoing
showers/thunderstorms will limit heating. However, modest
boundary-layer moisture beneath 7-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rates will
support weak instability (up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Furthermore,
vertically veering supercell wind profiles will support isolated
organized convection. The overall pattern will remain similar to
that expected in the Day 2/Friday period, and at least a low risk
for severe storms is expected to persist on Day 3/Saturday.

..Leitman.. 10/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180723
SWODY3
SPC AC 180723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High
Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low.

...Synopsis...
The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an
open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate
eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the
southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued
surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very
modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley
anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly
move eastward along with the upper trough.

...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity...
A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account
of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential
for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather
cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until
mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold
enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could
support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the
mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe
weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally
severe hail are possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181909
SWODY3
SPC AC 181907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New
Mexico on Sunday.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...

The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will
progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale
ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or
overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region.
Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger
destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of
modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across
parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing
hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early
evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that
of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been
included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM.

..Leitman.. 10/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190730
SWODY3
SPC AC 190729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High
Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the
central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be
expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific
front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With
dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of
the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time.

With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms
are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given
the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the
extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm
or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for
unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are
possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front
appears weak and initiation is far from certain.

..Wendt.. 10/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191919
SWODY3
SPC AC 191918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central
Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon
to early evening Monday.

...KS/OK/TX Panhandle...
The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open
wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and
towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt
500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast
quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and
a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile.

Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated
convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be
ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north
from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and
east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal
destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the
morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong
gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of
strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into
western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round
of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the
western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into
the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given
the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer
heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward
development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle.
But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk
appears warranted.

..Grams.. 10/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200729
SWODY3
SPC AC 200729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed
into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will
move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may
permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and
parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm
chances will be limited on Tuesday.

..Bentley.. 10/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201913
SWODY3
SPC AC 201912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS
Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper
Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies.
Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the
Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this
shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western
Ontario and the Upper Midwest.

A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough
will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into
western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will
push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes.
Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal,
but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level
temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper
updrafts capable of producing lightning.

..Mosier.. 10/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210728
SWODY3
SPC AC 210727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to
develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon.
Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible
along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the
northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind
profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with
these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more
robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be
possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this
time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified.

..Bentley.. 10/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211914
SWODY3
SPC AC 211913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson
Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday
morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress
throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as
the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany
this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current
expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast
from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across
the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints),
limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along
and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in
isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level
westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented
gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective
line.

Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection
along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of
any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more
robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be
possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the
guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe
probabilities will be needed in later outlooks.

..Mosier.. 10/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220800
SWODY3
SPC AC 220759

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Thursday

...Synopsis...
As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal
pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains
to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some
low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and
with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening
and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some
hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak
instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 10/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221926
SWODY3
SPC AC 221925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas
across northern Missouri and into southern Iowa.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central
and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging briefly
develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. High pressure will
be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days
cold front, providing generally stable conditions there.

In association with the Rockies/Plains trough, a cold front will
push quickly southeastward across the northern and central Plains,
extending roughly from MN into the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Modest
boundary-layer moistening will occur with dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s F as far north as southwest IA.

As the cold front interacts with the narrow plume of instability, at
least isolated surface-based storms are anticipated during the late
afternoon, trending toward elevated through the evening, from
northeast KS into northern MO and IA. Forecast soundings show
steepening lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height,
suggesting a supercell, even if elevated, may occur, with hail risk.
The favored zone for initiation will be the KS portion of the cold
front where low-level lapse rates will be steepest. Overall, the
main limiting factor for this event will be moisture quality as lift
and shear will be favorable.

..Jewell.. 10/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 222008
SWODY3
SPC AC 222007

Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas
across northern Missouri and into southern Iowa.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central
and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging briefly
develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. High pressure will
be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days
cold front, providing generally stable conditions there.

In association with the Rockies/Plains trough, a cold front will
push quickly southeastward across the northern and central Plains,
extending roughly from MN into the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Modest
boundary-layer moistening will occur with dewpoints in the low to
mid 50s F as far north as southwest IA.

As the cold front interacts with the narrow plume of instability, at
least isolated surface-based storms are anticipated during the late
afternoon, trending toward elevated through the evening, from
northeast KS into northern MO and IA. Forecast soundings show
steepening lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height,
suggesting a supercell, even if elevated, may occur, with hail risk.
The favored zone for initiation will be the KS portion of the cold
front where low-level lapse rates will be steepest. Overall, the
main limiting factor for this event will be moisture quality as lift
and shear will be favorable.

..Jewell.. 10/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230728
SWODY3
SPC AC 230727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and
Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be
ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least
the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move
east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability
may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of
larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall
convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable
environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

..Bentley.. 10/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231915
SWODY3
SPC AC 231914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with
high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will
be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low
60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weak cold front. Here, a few
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop during the afternoon, with weak
lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. The most
favorable large-scale ascent will be during the first half of the
day in association with a shortwave trough moving across the Great
Lakes. Thereafter, lift becomes quite weak.

..Jewell.. 10/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240631
SWODY3
SPC AC 240631

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on
Saturday.

High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on
Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the
Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its
south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However,
forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no
thunderstorm activity is anticipated.

..Bentley.. 10/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241929
SWODY3
SPC AC 241928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on
Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Little thunderstorm activity is expected on Saturday across the
CONUS, owing to a ridge in the west and a dry northwest flow regime
across the East. This pattern will maintain high pressure over most
of the US land mass, with little destabilization. Very weak
instability may develop mainly offshore of the Pacific Northwest as
an upper trough approaches into Sunday morning, and a flash or two
cannot be ruled out just offshore.

..Jewell.. 10/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250627
SWODY3
SPC AC 250625

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the
Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states
on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening
lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the
Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support
isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts.

Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to
the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry
airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface
trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and
approaching western upper trough will result in some northward
transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow.
However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm
potential.

..Leitman.. 10/25/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 251930
SWODY3
SPC AC 251928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the
Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...Synopsis...
A large upper trough will develop into the western CONUS on Sunday,
shunting an upper ridge quickly across the Plains and toward the MS
Valley. Substantial cooling aloft will result in weak
destabilization across parts of the Pacific Northwest with 500 mb
temperatures to about -25 C.

Forecast soundings depict perhaps 100 J/kg SBCAPE across coastal
counties of WA and OR where EL temperatures will likely be cold
enough to support lightning.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 260705
SWODY3
SPC AC 260704

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into
Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida,
across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No
severe threat is expected to develop.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on
Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along
the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A
moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm
sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the
Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated
storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region
during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in
parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection
increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No
severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States.

..Broyles.. 10/26/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261926
SWODY3
SPC AC 261925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the
the coastal Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, and upper Great Lakes.
Severe weather is unlikely.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough along the West Coast will undergo some
amplification Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In the
East, upper-level ridging will continue to increase. At the surface,
a low will deepen in the central Plains into the upper Mississippi
Valley. Modest moisture return will occur into the Upper Midwest by
the evening/overnight. Some elevated buoyancy (250-600 J/kg MUCAPE)
is expected to develop in eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan by
early /mid evening as low-level warm advection increases. A few
stronger updrafts capable of small hail are possible, but
larger/severe hail is not likely.

..Wendt.. 10/26/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270727
SWODY3
SPC AC 270727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts, will
be possible Tuesday night from the central Plains
north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert
Southwest on Tuesday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located
between the western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. upper-level
ridge. This will help to maintain a broad belt of strong low-level
flow across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday
evening, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F along a
narrow corridor from the central Plains into the mid Missouri
Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward
into the central Plains, as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front from the
evening into the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases
ahead of the approaching trough.

NAM forecast soundings ahead of the front from eastern Nebraska
northeastward into southern Minnesota have 0-6 km shear steadily
increasing from the evening into the overnight, with 0-6 km shear
peaking in the 60 to 70 knot range late Tuesday night. Instability
is also forecast to increase Tuesday night, with MLCAPE reaching the
500 to 750 J/Kg range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to reach
7 C/km in some areas. The environment should support isolated
supercell development with a potential for hail. Storms that develop
behind the front will likely be elevated. Isolated surface-based
storms are also expected to the east of the front, where a few
marginally severe wind gusts may occur. The limitation for this
scenario is that much of the convective development is expected to
take place overnight, when thermodynamics will not be as favorable.
This may keep any severe threat localized and marginal.

..Broyles.. 10/27/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271922
SWODY3
SPC AC 271921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts,
remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the
central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region
Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing
will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a
surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states
through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit
robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However,
mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead
of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered
thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS
Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air
advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by
strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler
temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical
shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe
storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning
time frame.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max
ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies
in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s
F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to
the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping
layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as
the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High
Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over
the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A
50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly
500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear.
As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable
of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can
develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280726
SWODY3
SPC AC 280725

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are
expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward
into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the
Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the
central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves
into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains,
with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward
into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level
convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is
expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas
southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas
and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear
likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the
evening, an MCS may form across the region.

Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s
F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and
eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000
J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability
axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in
the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell
development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially
further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast
to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with
large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe
threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the
southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north
Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to
be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could
somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat.

..Broyles.. 10/28/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281920
SWODY3
SPC AC 281919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN IOWA
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing severe
wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop Wednesday from
the southern Plains north-northeastward to the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving out of the interior West is forecast to eject northeastward across the central U.S. Wednesday, shunted from its
prior, more eastward trajectory by stout ridging over the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, steady eastward advance of a cold front
across the central third of the country is expected. By the end of
the period (early Thursday morning), the boundary should extend from
the Upper Great Lakes region southwestward across the Mid
Mississippi Valley and Ozarks region, to central Texas.

...Upper Midwest to Texas...
Thunderstorm development is expected to occur -- potentially early
in the period -- along the advancing cold front, as lapse rates
gradually steepen atop a sufficiently moist/gradually warming
boundary layer. The more substantial destabilization is expected to
evolve from roughly Kansas southward, while the strongest/deepest
forcing for ascent should occur from roughly Kansas northward.

As such, initial convective development is expected in the vicinity
of the Middle Missouri Valley during the morning, and spreading
northeastward into the progressively weaker-CAPE environment into
the upper Mississippi Valley/western Upper Great Lakes area.
Despite the more limited CAPE, however, strong southwesterly flow
aloft -- increasing with height -- will result in shear supporting
at least isolated stronger/potentially severe storms. Hail and
locally damaging wind gusts will be the primary risks, spreading
eastward with time as the front advances. Threat should gradually
diminish after dark, with the loss of heating/diminishing CAPE.

Farther south, convective initiation should occur later, given
weaker forcing for ascent, and residual capping. Storms that do
initiate will occur in a thermodynamic and kinematic environment
favoring rotating updrafts, and thus expect potential for large hail
and locally damaging gusts with stronger storms. A tornado or two
may also occur, though some upscale growth is expected to occur with
time, potentially limiting this risk. While some severe potential
may continue into the overnight hours, weakening CAPE should
correspond to a gradual decrease in severe potential through 31/12Z.

..Goss.. 10/28/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290708
SWODY3
SPC AC 290707

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail,
will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest
and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into
the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of
weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day.
Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front
will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday
afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves
further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor
low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops.
In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be
possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated
severe wind gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291908
SWODY3
SPC AC 291906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST
TO TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging
winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and
afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East
Texas.

...Synopsis...
An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper
Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday,
before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower
Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low
will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest.

At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great
Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast,
while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower
Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning.

...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas...
A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend
from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to
eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by
limited/local risk for gusty winds.

As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited --
particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE
profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height
suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a
tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an
expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast
cycle.

Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the
daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over
southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward).

..Goss.. 10/29/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300724
SWODY3
SPC AC 300723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail
and a few severe wind gusts, will be possible Friday night in parts
of the southern High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the Rockies and
Great Plains on Friday, as a trough moves inland across the West
Coast. Moisture advection will take place over the southern and
central Plains, with surface dewpoints likely reaching the 60s F
across much of Texas. The strongest instability is forecast by mid
to late evening from far West Texas into eastern New Mexico, where
scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop. Additional
convection is expected further to the east across west-central
Texas. During the overnight period, thunderstorm coverage is
forecast to expand northeastward into parts of the Texas Panhandle
and northwest Texas. Forecast soundings from far West Texas into the
Texas Panhandle Friday evening and overnight have MLCAPE reaching
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 35 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 6.5 C/km.
This environment would be sufficient for supercells with large hail.
Marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. The severe
threat could persist to late in the period.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301919
SWODY3
SPC AC 301918

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected
to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region.

...Synopsis...
Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central
U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side
of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the
eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in
amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response,
increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold
front expected to move eastward across New England through the day,
while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast
States, and into the southern Plains.

Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across
the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in
response to the digging upper system.

...Southern High Plains...
Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight
across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level
warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic
zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE,
while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient
cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests
potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these
potentially stronger storms.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 311903
SWODY3
SPC AC 311902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally
strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts
-- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern
Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas.

...Synopsis...
Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected
Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the
West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue
crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains
overnight.

...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and
central Texas...
Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue
across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough
advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a
broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies
through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level
southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad
region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized
storms.

In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass,
destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with
500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though
low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust
convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand
in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening
and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger
storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the
overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to
support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is
appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over
western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian
Basin.

..Goss.. 10/31/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010729
SWODY3
SPC AC 010728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KS TO NORTH
TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central to
southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto
the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest
Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of
the trough across the central to southern Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will
still remain on the backside of the trough before finally ejecting
through the base on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous
shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis should occur over
the central High Plains. This low should reach the Upper Midwest by
12Z Monday, with additional cyclogenesis occurring in west TX.

...Central to southern Great Plains...
A complex setup is expected on Sunday into Sunday night with
multiple competing elements that should support/hinder severe
potential, along with substantial mesoscale uncertainty. As such, a
broad level 2-SLGT risk remains warranted at this juncture.

Extensive convection is expected late D1 through much of D2 across
the southern High Plains into the central and southern Great Plains.
Some of this will linger into Sunday, most likely in the OK to north
TX area. With persistent low-level warm theta-e advection and
upper-level difluence, convection may continue through the diurnal
heating cycle. Best chance for severe in this regime may be focused
along the trailing outflow/baroclinic zone where it intersects with
the west TX dryline.

A separate area of severe potential should develop near the central
High Plains cyclone in western to central KS. Here, steeper
mid-level lapse rates along and another day of moisture influx
should be adequate for late afternoon to evening storms. With
eastern extent, however, the deleterious effects of persistent
OK/north TX convection may yield a more confined/limited MLCAPE
plume in KS/NE.

A final round of severe convection may develop overnight across west
TX as forcing for ascent becomes strong ahead of the aforementioned
wave. Across all regimes, mid to upper hodograph elongation should
be pronounced, yielding a conditionally favorable environment for
supercells and organized clusters.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011929
SWODY3
SPC AC 011928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible, mainly during the late
afternoon and evening on Sunday, across parts of the central and
southern Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
A deep/high-amplitude upper trough will continue advancing steadily
eastward across the western U.S. Sunday, and will begin to emerge
into the High Plains late. At the surface, an associated cold front
will likewise advance eastward out of the Rockies, and should extend
from the Upper Mississippi Valley vicinity south-southwestward to
the southern Plains by Monday morning.

...Central and southern Plains...
The potential for severe weather Sunday is difficult to delineate,
given widespread/substantial prior -- and ongoing -- convection
across the Oklahoma/northern Texas area. As such, areas of
potentially greater destabilization remain uncertain. Despite this,
an amply moist warm sector and favorably sheared environment will
exist ahead of the advancing upper system, which should support
severe storms locally. Therefore, maintenance of a large/rather
broad risk area across portions of the central and southern Plains
remains the most reasonable forecast. Where greater instability can
evolve, potentially on western fringes of the outlook area from
western Kansas south across the Texas Big Country, risk for large
hail and a couple of tornadoes could evolve. Otherwise, locally
damaging wind gusts would appear to be the most likely risk -- which
may persist well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 11/01/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX
TO MO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday
night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and
damaging winds should be the main hazards.

...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley...
An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2
into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of
strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and
intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a
Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a
positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This
should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling
the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface
cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This
will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with
the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from
the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The
strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with
slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the
IA/WI/IL area.

The degree of instability is questionable, especially with
north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of
the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend
on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley,
as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest
boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused
corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in
later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado
threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on
Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely
slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe
potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively
weaker instability.

..Grams.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021931
SWODY3
SPC AC 021930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday
night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and
damaging winds should be the main hazards.

...Synopsis...
The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward
progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will
lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject
into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late
morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma
will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest
by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the
dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a
cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the
Midwest.

...Oklahoma/Texas...
The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to
be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional
convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks
within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection
evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and
eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating
will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even
without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should
support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern
Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear
vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outcome. Very
strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe
winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur,
portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a
greater severe threat given the potential combination of
destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas
should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be
weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations
will also be possible in these areas.

...Ozarks...
Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat.
Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated.
The greater threat for severe weather will come with the line of
convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the
evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited
and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and
deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for
damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes.

..Wendt.. 11/02/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030742
SWODY3
SPC AC 030741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast on Tuesday.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Most
of this activity should further diminish and/or progress into the
Gulf. Redevelopment of isolated to scattered thunderstorms may occur
from midday into the afternoon near the front into the Lower MS
Valley. Weak mid-level lapse rates and diminishing deep-layer shear
should preclude an organized severe threat.

A surge of tropical moisture northward across the FL Straits to the
northeast Gulf should support increasing thunder potential. This
should be confined to south FL during the day Tuesday, before
expanding towards the FL Panhandle Tuesday night. NHC is forecasting
a high likelihood of TC development over the Caribbean during the
next 48 hours, and this will need to be monitored for potential
tornado impacts across the FL Keys vicinity as early as Wednesday
morning.

...Great Lakes...
A low-probability thunder area is forecast with potential for scant
elevated buoyancy ahead of a shortwave trough progressing
northeastward. A belt of intense mid-level southwesterlies and
strong low-level winds does render concern for a conditional,
low-topped supercell threat near a surface cyclone tracking from the
IA/IL/WI border area towards eastern Upper/northern Lower MI.
Guidance suggests slim prospects for surface-based instability
during the day where pronounced bulk shear is present.

..Grams.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031905
SWODY3
SPC AC 031904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday night from the
Gulf Coast states into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. A few
storms could also occur across parts of the Great Lakes region. No
severe thunderstorms are expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will de-amplify and move quickly northeastward
into the upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, as a cold front
advances eastward into the Sabine River and mid Mississippi Valleys.
Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place, but the
airmass will likely remain stable along most of the front throughout
the day. The only exception could be in far southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana where weak instability is expected. In that
area, large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear will likely be
insufficient for severe convection.

..Broyles.. 11/03/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040744
SWODY3
SPC AC 040743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL
KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower
FL Keys, in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 18.

...FL Keys...
NHC is forecasting PTC 18 to become a hurricane over the northern
Caribbean by Wednesday morning. Latest track forecast indicates this
cyclone should cross far western Cuba into the southeast Gulf on
Wednesday. Despite the lack of organized TC formation yet, consensus
of guidance suggests an increase in low-level southeasterlies and PW
to around 2.5 inches should occur across at least the Lower Keys.
Even the more subdued spectrum of guidance would support sufficient
SRH for rotating convection within potential outer bands that move northwestward across the FL Straits. This may yield waterspouts that
could briefly move ashore. Current track/timing suggest this threat
over the Lower Keys may diminish by Wednesday night.

...Southeast...
General thunder on Wednesday into Wednesday night will be focused
along a quasi-stationary front from the northwest Gulf Coast to KY,
and separately amid rich low-level moisture across GA/FL/AL.
Seasonably modest deep-layer shear along with predominantly weak
buoyancy appear to preclude organized severe-storm potential.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041907
SWODY3
SPC AC 041906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability tornado risk may develop Wednesday over the Lower
Florida Keys, in association with Tropical Depression 18.

...FL Keys...

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Depression 18
to strengthen into a hurricane over the northern Caribbean by
Wednesday morning. This system is forecast to move across northern
Cuba and into the southeast Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday.
While this track will keep the tropical system well offshore the FL
Keys/South FL, east/southeasterly low-level wind fields will
increase through the daytime hours. Modest instability coupled with
increasing SRH amid mid 70s F dewpoints suggests a couple of
waterspouts will be possible as convection associated with outer
bands moves northwest across the FL Straits. While uncertainty
remains among various guidance in the forward speed/timing of the
northward progression of the tropical system into the southeast
Gulf, will maintain low tornado probabilities.

..Leitman.. 11/04/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050823
SWODY3
SPC AC 050822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday
afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas.

...TX...
Modified moisture return from the western Gulf will increase across
much of TX in advance of a slow-moving mid/upper trough over AZ/NM.
A surface anticyclone over the central High Plains will support
ridging southward across the southern High Plains, with an inverted
trough developing to its east. 00Z models differ substantially in
the location of this trough, largely bracketed by a farther east GFS
and west ECMWF. This yields longitudinal uncertainty with the
potential severe-storm corridor.

Much of the convective development will probably be elevated to the
cool side of the surface trough. Even so, a threat for severe hail
should exist given favorably strong southwesterly speed shear.
Surface-based buoyancy should struggle to develop north/west of
central TX, ahead of the inverted trough. This may be adequate for a
confined corridor of surface-based supercell threat starting
Thursday afternoon. Given the spatial uncertainties and relatively
nebulous setup, only low severe probabilities appear warranted.

...Central/eastern Gulf Coast...
Per the latest NHC forecast and probable compact nature of strong
low-level winds surrounding TC Rafael, a coastal tornado threat
appears unlikely on Thursday to early Friday. Still, with large
spread in guidance regarding the evolution of TC Rafael in the
eastern to central Gulf, there remains potential for a
tornado-threat highlight during this time frame in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051926
SWODY3
SPC AC 051925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF CENTRAL/WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning Thursday
afternoon across central/west-central parts of Texas.

...TX...
A mid- to upper-level low will meander slowly east across the Desert
Southwest during the period. In between a surface high centered
over the central High Plains and TC Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico,
easterly low-level flow in the western Gulf Basin and TX will favor
a gradual westward push of modified moisture return into
west-central TX. A surface trough will likely serve as the western
delimiter of moisture/instability. Models indicate at least weak to
moderate buoyancy developing by mid-late afternoon in the Concho
Valley. Shear profiles will support storm organization, including
the possibility for supercells. Have made a small westward
adjustment to low-severe probabilities over west-central TX based on
the latest model guidance. Large hail appears to be the primary
threat, although a confined zone may exhibit a short-duration threat
for a tornado. A hail/wind risk could linger well into the evening
and perhaps early overnight depending on storm-scale details
unknown/not resolvable at this time.

..Smith.. 11/05/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060823
SWODY3
SPC AC 060822

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas.

...TX...
A mid/upper low should deepen as it moves from the central NM
vicinity to the central High Plains. A belt of fast mid-level flow
will largely remain within the southeast arc of this cyclone. At the
surface, a minor low over west TX should similarly advance north
towards western KS. A cold front will arc to its south in mainly a
north-south orientation through central portions of TX.

Linear clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday
across parts of west TX near the surface cyclone. This activity will
probably persist through the day, especially with northern extent
where activity should largely remain elevated. This will limit
surface-based destabilization north, with more prominent surface
heating probable from central TX southward. Guidance differs on just
how far north instability will develop. This yields uncertainty on
the demarcation of the low-probability severe area where low-level
to deep-layer shear will be strong.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should wane towards late day
along the south-central TX portion of the front. Progressively
weaker low-level shear indicates more of a hail/wind threat from
central TX south. Overall setup suggests severe coverage should
remain isolated into the afternoon and likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061929
SWODY3
SPC AC 061928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas.

...Texas...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to move
north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday.
A surface low will move northward from the TX Panhandle vicinity
into southwest KS, as a trailing outflow-reinforced cold front moves
through parts of TX/OK. A surface ridge initially covering parts of
the Plains and Midwest will tend to shift eastward with time, though
the lingering influence of this ridge will tend to limit the
northern extent of more substantial moisture return.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated severe threat could accompany the
storms along the southern periphery of ongoing convection during the
morning, where somewhat more favorable instability will be in place. Uncertainties remain regarding the northward extent of substantial destabilization through the day. However, sufficient low-level and
deep-layer shear will support potential for organized cells/clusters
with at least an isolated severe threat. This threat could spread
northeastward across parts of central/north TX through the day,
before a likely weakening trend during the evening as stronger
large-scale ascent lifts away from the warm sector.

A minor expansion to the Marginal Risk has been made across parts of
TX based on the latest guidance, though uncertainty remains high
regarding the eastern and northern extent of the organized severe
threat, as well as the location of any corridors where a somewhat
greater threat could evolve.

..Dean.. 11/06/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070757
SWODY3
SPC AC 070755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Discussion...
A mid/upper low over the central High Plains at 12Z Saturday should
pivot northeastward towards MN/IA as it transitions to an open wave
by early Sunday. Occluded surface cyclone will track from western KS
to the Mid-MO Valley by Saturday evening. Trailing portion of its
attendant outflow-reinforced front should slow and eventually stall
late in the period across parts of AR towards the TX Gulf Coast.

Surface-based buoyancy will likely be confined well to the south of
a compact belt of strong mid-level south-southwesterlies surrounding
the low/trough. With weak mid-level lapse rates, elevated buoyancy
should remain meager north of the Ark-La-Tex. General thunderstorms
will be possible from the western Gulf Coast to the Ozarks and Lower
OH Valley. The severe-storm threat appears negligible.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071917
SWODY3
SPC AC 071916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level cyclone and attendant weak surface low are
forecast to move northeastward from western KS toward the
east-central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. A cold
front will extend south-southwestward from the low, with the
southern portion of this front potentially becoming nearly
stationary from parts of AR/MO to the upper TX Coast. Seasonably
rich low-level moisture will be in place along/south of a warm front
that is forecast to move northward across parts of AR/MO and the
Mid-South. NHC is currently forecasting Tropical Cyclone Rafael to
move westward across the west-central Gulf of Mexico and remain well
offshore of the TX/LA coasts on Saturday.

Guidance still suggests that stronger deep-layer flow/shear will be
displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, while relatively
warm temperatures aloft and weak midlevel lapse rates will limit
prefrontal buoyancy. Thunderstorms will be possible across a broad
region from LA and east TX into the mid MS and lower OH Valleys, but
organized severe storms are currently not expected.

..Dean.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080754
SWODY3
SPC AC 080753

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A dampening shortwave trough will progress from the Upper Midwest
across the Great Lakes. The trailing occluded/cold/quasi-stationary
front arcing southwest, from the attendant surface low moving into
southeast Canada, will serve as a focus for weak thunder activity.
Poor mid-level lapse rates will limit coverage, from the Lower OH
Valley southwestward across the Lower MS to Sabine Valleys.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible over far south FL by late
afternoon into Sunday night as low-level moisture increases from the
southeast. 10 percent thunder probabilities may reach coastal WA/OR
by 12Z Monday as a northeast Pacific shortwave trough approaches.

...Coastal LA...
00Z ECMWF ensemble depicts increasing spread in the evolution of TC
Rafael by early Sunday as the cyclone weakens. A small percentage
support more of a northerly movement, similar to deterministic
NCEP/CMC guidance. But the vast majority of the ECMWF ensemble
members, along with the UKMET, support the favored NHC forecast. For
now, TC-tornado potential appears likely to remain negligible.

..Grams.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081909
SWODY3
SPC AC 081908

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
The mid/upper cyclone over the Upper Midwest will shift
east/northeast into southern Quebec and the Northeast. A
quasi-stationary surface boundary will extend southwest from a Great Lakes/southeastern Canada low into the Mid-South and east Texas.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the warm sector ahead
of the front. Poor lapse rates, weak instability and weakening
vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential.

A few thunderstorms may develop near the Pacific Northwest coast
late Sunday/early Monday as a shortwave upper trough approaches the
region. Additional thunderstorms also are possible across south FL
from late afternoon onward as moisture increases within a
southeasterly flow regime.

...Coastal Louisiana...

Forecast guidance continues to show some spread regarding the
central position of Rafael on Sunday. However, ECMWF ensembles
mostly still align with latest track guidance from the National
Hurricane Center, keeping the low well offshore the Gulf Coast. As
such, tornado potential is expected to remain low.

..Leitman.. 11/08/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090818
SWODY3
SPC AC 090817

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Southeast...
Thunderstorm potential should be focused during the first half of
the period. A weak cold front will accelerate southeast as a surface anticyclone moves into the Upper Midwest and a ridge builds south
across the MS Valley. Convergence along the front will remain weak
within a predominately zonal flow regime. In conjunction, with
persistent weakness in lapse rates above the boundary layer,
thunderstorm coverage should tend to be isolated.

...Pacific Northwest...
A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should
move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, a generally onshore flow
regime will persist through the period. Low to mid-level lapse rates
will be steep, yielding instability amid meager buoyancy. An
upstream shortwave impulse should aid in scattered, low-topped
convection. Some of this will be sufficiently deep to foster
sporadic lightning. Very isolated thunderstorms may occur farther
inland towards the northern Great Basin. But confidence is low in
whether scant buoyancy will develop east of the Cascade Range.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091914
SWODY3
SPC AC 091913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations,
is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore
flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone
should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds
south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue
over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the
coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are
likely over parts of the Southeast.

...Carolinas and the Southeast....
Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow
aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread
clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front
given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This
will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the
region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the
convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts
of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited
vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely.

...Pacific Northwest...
As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore,
steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may
result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal
WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model
guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for
stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop
should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther
inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong
stability.

..Lyons.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091921
SWODY3
SPC AC 091920

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE GROUPING

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are unlikely Monday or Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Largely zonal mid-level flow, with several embedded perturbations,
is expected across the CONUS Monday. Pacific troughing and onshore
flow behind a cold front will support scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms over the Pacific Northwest. A surface anticyclone
should move into the Upper Midwest, as shortwave ridging builds
south across the MS Valley. Broad mid-level troughing will continue
over the East as a slow-moving cold front makes its way toward the
coast. Scattered showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorms are
likely over parts of the Southeast.

...Carolinas and the Southeast....
Broad troughing over the eastern CONUS will encourage zonal flow
aloft atop a slow-moving cold front across the Southeast. Widespread
clouds and ongoing precipitation are expected east of the front
given relatively abundant surface moisture and weak ascent. This
will tend to limit buoyancy and lapse rates across much of the
region. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, focused early in the
convective cycle, primarily across the eastern Carolinas and parts
of the Gulf Coast/FL. However, with weak buoyancy and limited
vertical shear, severe storms appear unlikely.

...Pacific Northwest...
As the shortwave trough and the trailing cold front move onshore,
steepening low-level lapse rates beneath the cold core aloft may
result in enough buoyancy for a few thunderstorms across coastal
WA/OR and far northern CA. While not overly favorable, some model
guidance shows MUCAPE on the order of 200-400 J/kg sufficient for
stronger, low-topped convection. Any lightning that does develop
should remain isolated and become increasingly infrequent farther
inland where cool surface temperatures will promote strong
stability.

..Lyons.. 11/09/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100815
SWODY3
SPC AC 100814

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail is possible across a portion of the southern
High Plains on Tuesday evening.

...Southern High Plains vicinity...
A zonal upper flow regime over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses across the West and likely reaches
the northern Great Plains to southern High Plains by 12Z Wednesday.
Guidance differs with the evolution of individual shortwave impulses
embedded within the broad trough. Non-NCEP guidance prefers
amplification of the primary impulse within the basal portion of the
trough. This would result in pronounced mid-level height falls
overspreading the southern High Plains Tuesday evening/night.

Low-level moisture quality will be lacking, owing to the continued
presence of TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return
will emanate northward from northeast Mexico. A plume of low to mid
50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by late day.
This may yield a narrow ribbon of meager/weak buoyancy (MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence
is low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior
to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels
within the west-southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective
development is expected during the evening as large-scale ascent
increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level
warm theta-e advection. With favorable speed shear in the
cloud-bearing layer, a few elevated supercells may form with a
threat for hail. Severe hail magnitudes should be confined to the
early period of sustained-storm activity, but small hail could
persist east-northeast Tuesday night.

..Grams.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101916
SWODY3
SPC AC 101916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern High
Plains Tuesday evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level trough will move into Rockies on Tuesday, as a broad
belt of low-level flow strengthens across the Great Plains. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to advance eastward into the
southern and central High Plains on Tuesday. Moisture advection
ahead of the front will result in a north-to-south corridor of
maximized low-level moisture across west Texas, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the 50s F and lower 60S F. MUCAPE is
expected to increase into the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range along the
moist axis by late afternoon, as mid-level lapse rates steepen due
to the approach of the trough. Low-level convergence ahead of the
front is forecast to become maximized early Tuesday evening, which
should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
across the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings in the
eastern Texas Panhandle at 03Z on Tuesday have effective shear near
40 knots, with 3-6 km lapse rates near 7 C/km. This may support
isolated supercell development, with a potential for severe hail.
The storms are expected to be elevated and marginal in nature, due
to factors such as the late arrival of the trough, and relatively
weak instability.

..Broyles.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110821
SWODY3
SPC AC 110820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AL TO CENTRAL MS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States.

...LA/MS/AL...
A broad mid/upper trough over the Great Plains on Wednesday morning
will progress east across the MS Valley, likely extending from the
Upper Great Lakes to at least the Mid-South/TN Valley by 12Z
Thursday. Models indicate spread in just how amplified the trough
will be. This would correspondingly impact the southern extent of
low-level flow enhancement in the Deep South to central Gulf Coast.

The weak cold front that intrudes on the central Gulf Coast D1 will
stall and then advance north as a warm front late D2 into D3. Rich
tropical moisture, characterized by mean-mixing ratios of 15-16
g/kg, will be present to the south of this boundary, yielding
potential for modest buoyancy on Wednesday afternoon. Prior to that,
extensive elevated convection is expected north of the front within
the warm conveyor, slowing the north-northeast advance of the front.

The spread in how far south stronger low-level flow will overlap the
front/warm sector, lowers confidence in the overall forecast.
Conditionally, there will be potential for the rich boundary-layer
moisture to overlap moderate low-level SRH amid a veering wind
profile with height. Still, strong mid/upper flow will likely be
confined farther north-northwest, suggesting that sustained
supercell structures should struggle. Transient low-level rotation
near the outflow-modulated front is seemingly the most likely
scenario, which would offer a low-probability tornado/wind threat.

..Grams.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111922
SWODY3
SPC AC 111922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States.

...Synopsis...
Some deamplification of the upper pattern over the U.S. is expected
Wednesday, as a central U.S. trough advances eastward across the
Plains through the day, and then into the Upper Great
Lakes/Midwest/Tennessee Valley area overnight. As this occurs, a
weakening surface cold front will likewise cross central portions of
the country, extending from the Midwest to the central Gulf Coast
area by the end of the period.

...Lower Mississippi Valley area...
Rich low-level Gulf moisture is forecast to linger over the Lower
Mississippi Valley/central Gulf Coast area Wednesday, ahead of the
advancing cold front. Weak lapse rates aloft will limit
surface-based instability, and meanwhile stronger flow aloft will
remain farther north -- across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys. Still, slightly enhanced low-level flow is expected -- in
part related to remnants of Rafael. The veering/increasing
low-level winds with height may support transient rotation in a few
of the longer-lived updrafts, and thus low-probability potential for
a brief/weak tornado or two, or a strong wind gust, remains evident.

..Goss.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120811
SWODY3
SPC AC 120810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley is forecast to turn southeastward and intensify on
Thursday. In response to this system, a surface low is forecast to
develop and deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts by Thursday
evening. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will continue
to move further inland across the western CONUS through the period.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Rich low-level moisture will be in place ahead of a cold front
during the morning/afternoon across parts of the central and
northeast Gulf Coast vicinity, and thunderstorms may persist from
late in the D2/Wednesday period and/or redevelop from the morning
into at least the early afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that
low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken with time in areas where
richer moisture is in place, while weak midlevel lapse rates will
limit instability. With the spatial extent of surface-based
convective potential expected to be constrained and the environment
forecast to become less favorable with time, organized severe
potential appears too limited/uncertain to include probabilities.
However, a strong storm or two will be possible, especially if
convection from late D2/Wednesday is able to remain somewhat
organized into the D3/Thursday forecast period.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of the low
that is forecast to deepen somewhere near the GA/Carolina coasts
later in the forecast period. Some guidance suggests potential for
richer low-level moisture and surface-based buoyancy to approach
parts of the Coastal Carolinas, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. While it currently appears that the bulk of organized
convection will remain offshore, this area will continue to be
monitored for development of an appreciable severe threat in the
vicinity of the coast.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121914
SWODY3
SPC AC 121913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A negatively titled shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
Upper Midwest into the southern Appalachians early Thursday morning.
This trough is expected to lose amplitude as it continues eastward
while also developing a closed mid-level circulation. This resulting
cyclone will then likely progress across the Upper OH Valley and
into the Mid-Atlantic by early Friday. In response to this
evolution, surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off the Carolina
coast, or perhaps just inland over the coastal Carolinas.

Farther west, the overall upper pattern will amplify as ridging
builds across the Plains and troughing deepens along the West Coast.

...Central/Northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the central
Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a cold front pushes eastward
through moist and modestly buoyant warm sector in place across the
region. Northern extent of this warm sector is expected to become
increasingly confined throughout the day with the cooler, more
continental airmass over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic remaining
place. A strong storm or two is possible within this warm sector,
particularly Thursday morning from southwest/southern AL into the
western FL Panhandle, but limited buoyancy and weakening shear
should keep any severe threat isolated, precluding the need for any
severe probabilities with this outlook.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty regarding the strength and location of the surface low
expected to deepen over the region late Thursday night/early Friday
morning limits the confidence on how far inland any favorable
low-level moisture/buoyancy would penetrate. Current guidance
suggests there could be a confined area along the warm front near
the northern NC Coast where there is enough overlap between modest
buoyancy and strong shear to support some severe potential. Given
the limited spatial extent of this region and the general
uncertainty regarding the overall pattern, no severe probabilities
were introduced with this outlook. However, a small area maybe
needed in future outlooks if forecast confidence increases.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130759
SWODY3
SPC AC 130758

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
An intensifying deep-layer low is forecast to be near the NC coast
at the start of the period Friday morning. This low will move east-southeastward away from the coast through the day, as a
trailing cold front moves through the FL Peninsula and Gulf of
Mexico. Elsewhere, a deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly
eastward across the western CONUS.

Generally limited moisture/instability will result in low
thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. Some deeper
convection may persist near the NC coast early in the period in
association with the departing low. Otherwise, weak convection with
isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out across parts of CA/NV
into the Great Basin/northern Rockies, though confidence in
sufficient instability and lightning coverage is too low to add any
general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131911
SWODY3
SPC AC 131911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A vertically stacked cyclone is expected to be over the NC
coast/Outer Banks vicinity early Friday morning before then quickly
progressing eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean. A few
lightning flashes are possible within the warm conveyor of this
cyclone, with any higher storm coverage remaining well offshore.

A deep upper trough will continue gradually eastward across the
western CONUS while continuing to amplify. By early Saturday
morning, this trough is expected to extend from Alberta
south-southwestward to off southern CA/Baja Peninsula with strong
southwesterly flow throughout its eastern periphery extending
through the Southwest and central/northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. A few flashes are possible along the trough as it moves
across northern/central CA and into the Great Basin, supported by
cold mid-level temperatures and strong ascent. However, coverage is
currently expected to remain below 10%.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140826
SWODY3
SPC AC 140825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave is forecast to emerge out of the deep
trough across the West and move across parts of the northern Plains
and upper Midwest on Saturday. A trailing shortwave trough is
expected to dig southeastward across the Southwest and northern
Mexico, and potentially evolve into a mid/upper-level low by the end
of the period. A surface low is expected to move northeastward
across the northern Plains, as a surface ridge shifts eastward
across much of the eastern CONUS.

Early-stage moisture return is expected to commence across the
southern Plains on Saturday, as low-level flow veers to
southeasterly across the western Gulf of Mexico and a modest
low-level jet develops in response to the northern Plains low. This
early moisture return is expected to be insufficient for any
appreciable surface-based destabilization. A plume of elevated
moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts of the
Great Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. A general
thunderstorm area has been included for this isolated thunder
potential, though uncertainty remains rather high.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141913
SWODY3
SPC AC 141913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Deep upper troughing is expected to extend from Alberta/Saskatchewan southwestward to off the Baja Peninsula early Saturday morning. Two
shortwave troughs are forecast to evolve out of this parent
troughing as it moves gradually eastward throughout the day, with
the northernmost wave progressing across the northern Plains into
the Upper Midwest and the southernmost wave progressing
southeastward across southern CA into the northern/central Baja
Peninsula. By early Sunday morning, enhanced southwesterly flow
aloft is expected to extend between these two shortwaves, from
northern Mexico across the southern High Plains and central Plains
into the Upper Midwest.

Surface low associated with the northern shortwave trough will
likely begin the day over western SD before then progressing
northeastward across the central/eastern Dakotas and northwestern MN
throughout the period. An associated cold front will push eastward/southeastward across the northern and central Plains and
into the Upper Midwest in the wake of this low.

Airmass modification is anticipated across the Plains throughout the
period as low-level flow veers to southeasterly across the western
Gulf of Mexico and a modest low-level jet develops in response to
the northern Plains shortwave trough. However, this early-stage
moisture return will remain confined to the southern Plains where
warm mid-level temperatures will preclude any buoyancy. A plume of
elevated moisture could support weak elevated convection from parts
of the central Plains late Saturday afternoon/early evening into the
into the upper Midwest late Saturday night into early Sunday.
Limited buoyancy should keep the severe-thunderstorm potential very
low.

..Mosier.. 11/14/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150829
SWODY3
SPC AC 150828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western,
central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into the overnight,
posing a risk for severe gusts, hail and possibly a tornado or two.

...Southern Plains...
An unseasonably strong mid-level trough will move eastward into
northern Mexico on Sunday, as a 75 to 100 knot mid-level jet rounds
the base of the system. Ahead of the trough, moisture advection will
take place across the southern Plains. By early evening, surface
dewpoints are expected to be in the 50s F across much of west and
northwest Texas, and in the 60s F across west-central and
north-central Texas. Weak destabilization across this moist airmass,
and strong large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough
will likely result in MCS development Sunday evening. A large
cluster of thunderstorms, with some potentially severe, is expected
to develop in west Texas Sunday evening, and spread
east-northeastward across the western part of the southern Plains
overnight.

The latest ECMWF is moving the mid-level jet into the southern High
Plains faster than other solutions. In response, a cluster of storms
is expected to develop earlier in the event, beginning early Sunday
evening in west Texas. These storms should be associated with the
initial severe threat. Due to a strong forcing regime, convective
coverage is forecast to rapidly expand Sunday evening, as an MCS
develops and moves across the southern High Plains. By 06Z Sunday
night, ECMWF forecast soundings in west-central Texas suggest that
MLCAPE could peak in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to increase into the 60 to 70 knot range, as the exit
region of the mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains.
This should be favorable for an organized line segment in
west-central Texas late Sunday evening into the early overnight.
Severe wind gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an
organized line segment. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast
to increase into the 350 to 450 m2/s2 range by midnight, which would
also be favorable for a tornado threat. The current thinking is that
the tornado threat will be mostly associated with a Quasi-linear
Convective System. Hail will also be possible with the stronger
cells embedded in the QLCS. The severe threat is expected to spread
into parts of central and north-central Texas during the overnight
period, as the upper-level low moves into the southern High Plains.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151917
SWODY3
SPC AC 151916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across parts of western,
central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening into Monday morning,
posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a tornado or two.

...Southern Plains...
A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to deepen/mature as
it progresses eastward across northern Mexico into the southern High
Plains on Sunday. By early Monday morning, expectation is for this
shortwave to have matured into an mid-latitude cyclone, with the
mid-level circulation centered over southeast NM and associated
surface low farther northeast over southwest OK/far northwest TX.
Strong mid-level flow will accompany this system, with a 80-100 kt
500-mb jet rounding the base of the system and ejecting into the
southern High Plains late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

Substantial mass response will precede this wave, with notable
low-level moisture advection anticipated across the southern Plains.
Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach the Permian Basin/TX South
Plains ahead the surface low (and attendant dryline and cold front)
associated with this system. Even with this increasing low-level
moisture, only modest destabilization is anticipated (i.e. MLCAPE
less than 800 J/kg), owing predominantly to poor lapse rates. This
minimal buoyancy will be countered by strong large-scale forcing for
ascent as the wave becomes increasingly negatively tilted. 12-hr
height falls from 120 to 150 m are anticipated over much of the
southern High Plains from 00Z to 12Z Monday.

Elevated thunderstorm development is expected first across southeast
NM/far west TX early Sunday evening. Thunderstorm coverage is
expected to gradually increase eastward/northeastward throughout the
evening while the surface low deepens and its associated cold front
begins to overtake the preceding drying and sharpen. This cold front
is then forecast to move quickly eastward across west TX early
Monday morning, with strong to severe thunderstorm anticipated along
this front. A linear storm mode is anticipated, with strong gusts as
the primary risk. A few embedded QLCS circulations are possible as
well, particularly near the surface low where some backing of the
low-level winds is more plausible. Given the robust low to mid-level
flow, there may be a corridor of relatively greater severe potential
where buoyancy, lift, and overall convective evolution align.
However, given confidence in these mesoscale details is low at this
forecast range, will maintain 15%/Slight-risk-equivalent with this
outlook.

..Mosier.. 11/15/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160821
SWODY3
SPC AC 160820

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible
across parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning. A
marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large
area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi
Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Mississippi Valley...
At daybreak on Monday, a negatively-tilted mid-level trough will be
in the southern High Plains, with an associated mid-level jet moving
through the base of the system. As the mid-level jet moves eastward
across north Texas and southern Oklahoma Monday morning, severe wind
gusts will be possible along the leading edge of an organized line
segment. The potential for wind gusts could extend
south-southwestward into parts of central Texas. During the day, the
line is expected to weaken as the mid-level system moves away toward
the northeast. Isolated strong to severe gusts will still be
possible with convection that develops in the afternoon in very weak instability ahead of the trough. This potential could be greatest
from the lower Missouri Valley southward into the Ozarks, along and
near the axis of a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The risk for severe
gusts is expected to be marginal.

Additional storms are expected to develop during the afternoon and
evening from far east Texas eastward into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Some model solutions develop a convective complex in
southern Louisiana Monday evening. Although there may be enough
instability for an isolated wind-damage threat, large-scale ascent
will be limited helping to keep any threat marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern Plains eastward into
the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will deepen while pivoting northeast across the
central Plains, driven by a negatively tilted mid-level trough
poised to eject into the MS Valley region from the southern Rockies
on Monday. Widespread precipitation is expected to precede the
surface low, with a squall line trailing the surface low over the
southern Plains at the start of the period into the afternoon hours.
Scant buoyancy, driven by strong low-level warm-air advection due to
a pronounced low-level jet, will coincide with a strong shear
environment to support early morning severe potential with the
squall line over parts of the southern Plains. Isolated severe
potential may also accompany the surface low over central and
eastern KS during the afternoon.

...Southern Plains to MS Valley...
A mature squall line will likely traverse a corridor of around 500
J/kg SBCAPE over northern TX into OK on Monday morning. Despite poor
lapse rates, a 60+ kt southerly low-level jet will encourage some boundary-layer destabilization via moistening. This intense
low-level jet, overspread by 50-80 kt southwesterly mid-level flow
from the approaching trough, will encourage enlarged/curved
hodographs ahead of the squall line, supporting the potential for a
few damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two, especially for
robust portions of the squall line closest to the surface low, where
low-level shear will be strongest. Through the remainder of the
period, stronger upper support will drift northward with the
mid-level trough and attendant surface low, potentially supporting
squall-line weakening in the process. Given strong low-level flow
ahead of the squall line, any mechanical downward momentum transport
may encourage isolated damaging gusts, with the eastward extent of
the Marginal Risk/severe threat highly dependent on the maintenance
of the squall line.

...Kansas into Missouri...
Guidance consensus depicts some strengthening of the surface low
through the day on Monday, which will coincide with strong northward
moisture advection and diurnal heating. Forecast soundings near the
triple point, which is poised to be somewhere over southern into
central KS by afternoon, suggests that some clearing and steepening
of low-level lapse rates may occur. Should this be the case, any
robust updrafts that manage to materialize may support a marginal
severe hail threat, and a tornado also cannot be ruled out. Greater
severe probabilities may be needed in future outlooks if future
guidance can demonstrate a consensus, with consistency, in
appreciable airmass recovery near the triple point. It is uncertain
how far east the severe threat will continue into MO.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 170801
SWODY3
SPC AC 170800

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible
across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Mid-level flow will remain southwesterly across much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front moves eastward into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in
place across the central Gulf Coast states, where surface dewpoints
from the mid 60s to low 70s F will contribute to weak
destabilization. A relatively large complex of thunderstorms is
forecast to move across this moist airmass during the day. A few of
the storms could produce isolated severe gusts, but any severe
threat is expected to be marginal due to the limited instability.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 171927
SWODY3
SPC AC 171926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Plains states
and Upper MS Valley region on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high
pressure and associated cooler temperatures behind a cold front
poised to sweep across the OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast. As the
primary surface low over the upper MS Valley ejects into Ontario
through the day, surface lee troughing should occur along the
central Gulf Coast, supporting continued onshore moisture advection.
Given a modest, trailing low-level jet aiding in the moisture
advection, enough shear and instability along the Gulf Coast may
encourage strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development.

...Portions of the central Gulf Coast Region...
Surface lee troughing will encourage mid to upper 60s F surface
dewpoints to advect onshore amid adequate surface heating during the
day, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. As storms
intensify within a warm-air advection regime, veering/strengthening
of the vertical wind profile will support modestly curved hodographs
ahead of the storms. Transient supercells may develop from some of
the stronger updrafts, with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
possible.

..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 180807
SWODY3
SPC AC 180806

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the
Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts.

...Carolinas...
A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday, as a cold front advances eastward
into the southern Atlantic Coastal states. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F in the Carolinas will
contribute to weak destabilization, with isolated thunderstorm
development possible across parts of the moist sector during the
afternoon. In spite of minimal instability, the low-level moisture
combined with strong deep-layer shear, associated with an
approaching mid-level jet, may be enough for a marginal severe
threat. Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible in the central
Carolinas as temperatures peak in the afternoon.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 181913
SWODY3
SPC AC 181912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the
Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts.

...Carolinas...
A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread
the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the
surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are
expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak
surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level
flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to
strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the
front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability.


...Pacific Northwest Coast...
A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific
Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean
waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early
afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the
coast.

..Bentley.. 11/18/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 190825
SWODY3
SPC AC 190824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper
Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the
West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow
across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any
thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 191929
SWODY3
SPC AC 191928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from
the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through
the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal
surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse
rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate
coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours.
While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too
limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive
surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore
flow will limit thunderstorm potential.

..Weinman.. 11/19/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 200809
SWODY3
SPC AC 200808

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm activity will remain quite limited on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper low will begin centered over the PA/NY area, but within
a large, deep upper trough. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will exist
over the Rockies, shifting slowly east toward the High Plains by 12Z
Saturday. West of this ridge, height falls will occur over the
Pacific Northwest as a broad upper trough moves in.

High pressure will persist over much of the CONUS, the exception
being over the Northeast near the deep tropospheric cyclone, with a
dry air mass lacking of CAPE. The exception will be just off the
WA/OR coasts, where low-topped convection is possible over the
ocean, and perhaps near the coastline by 12Z Saturday.

..Jewell.. 11/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 201907
SWODY3
SPC AC 201906

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 PM CST Wed Nov 20 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest Coast on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper low will start to move off the East Coast on Friday.
In its wake, a dry/cool continental airmass will overspread the
eastern CONUS which will result in no thunderstorm threat.

...Pacific Northwest Coast...
Cooling air aloft across the northeast Pacific, associated with the
approaching mid-level trough, will lead to enough instability over
the water to support some thunderstorm activity. Some of these
thunderstorms may impact coastal areas during the day on Friday.
Very strong synoptic winds are likely along the coast as a sub-990mb
low moves north along the coast. Thunderstorm activity could enhance
some of these winds and lead to increased wind damage threat, but
instability is too limited for a marginal risk at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/20/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 210749
SWODY3
SPC AC 210748

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a
departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of
west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge
will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND,
and continued height falls across the West.

The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response
to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily
away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the
entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not
expected.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 211930
SWODY3
SPC AC 211929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow across the CONUS is forecast to become more zonal
with time as prominent troughing on either coast gradually
deamplifies. Ridging over the central CONUS will weaken and shift
eastward as the East Coast trough moves offshore. To the west,
strong mid-level flow will move inland across the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies as the upper low cuts off southwest of BC. A
weak surface low and cold front will move across the northern
Rockies and intensify over the High Plains. High pressure over the
eastern US will favor cool, dry and stable offshore flow across the
eastern half of the country.

...Northwest and Northern Rockies...
As the broad upper-level cyclone over the Pacific Northwest
gradually devolves, a lead shortwave trough embedded within the
stronger zonal flow will quickly eject eastward over the Northern
Rockies. A weak surface low and trailing cold front will also move
east with the stronger flow aloft. Area model soundings show weak destabilization is possible over parts of eastern OR and southern ID
as forcing for ascent increases and low-level lapse rates steepen
ahead of the front. While very limited, enough buoyancy (MUCAPE
~100-200 J/kg) may develop for a few lightning flashes with
low-topped, mixed-phase, convective elements. Additionally,
low-topped storms may approach near shore areas of OR/WA and
northern CA. However, cool inland surface temperatures and weakening large-scale ascent should limit lightning chances inland.

..Lyons.. 11/21/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 220700
SWODY3
SPC AC 220658

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little if any thunderstorms are expected across the USA on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will remain over the Canadian Maritimes for much of the
day Sunday, and will shift east overnight as upper ridging occurs
over the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. To the west, height falls
will spread east across much of the West during the day and into the
Plains overnight, with a lead trough extending from Manitoba into
the northern and central Plains by 12Z Monday.

At the surface, high pressure will remain over the Southeast, with a
trough developing from the upper MS Valley southwestward to the
southern High Plains 00Z. Southerly winds will increase over the
western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing surface to 850 mb
southwesterlies aiding low-level moisture transport.

While the air mass from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley will
continually moisten, lapse rates will remain poor, and therefore,
thunderstorms are not forecast in this region.

Elsewhere, very weak instability may again develop near the shores
of WA and OR, but the bulk of any low-topped thunderstorms are
expected to remain offshore.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 221926
SWODY3
SPC AC 221925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A low amplitude, mostly zonal, mid-level flow regime will persist
across the US Sunday, as weak ridging over the central states shifts
eastward. A shortwave trough, embedded within strong westerly flow
aloft, will eject into the central Plains as a second, weaker trough
approaches the West Coast early Monday. A lee low should steadily
deepen over the central Plains and Midwest ahead of the advancing
shortwave trough, while high pressure remains steady over the
Southeast.

Weak moisture return is expected across parts of the Plains and
ArkLaTex as the low deepens and moves east. However, low and
mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, with strong inhibition
negating thunderstorm potential. Elsewhere, little to no buoyancy
is expected across the CONUS outside of the near coastal waters of
WA and OR. Given the poor lapse rates and weak inland moisture
advection, any low-topped thunderstorms that do develop are expected
to remain transient and offshore.

..Lyons.. 11/22/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 230824
SWODY3
SPC AC 230823

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the
Sabine Valley into central Mississippi.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a
broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to
the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies
will extend westward toward the West Coast.

As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and
OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest
Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower
MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest
steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead
of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F
dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak
thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability
and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening
deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 231921
SWODY3
SPC AC 231920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level low initially over parts of SK/MB is forecast to
move southeastward toward the upper Great Lakes on Monday, as a
leading shortwave trough ejects eastward across parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. A surface low is generally forecast to deepen and
move northeastward from the mid MS Valley region towards the lower
Great Lakes, though guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding
the timing and strength of this low. A trailing cold front will move
across parts of the lower Great Lakes, OH/TN Valleys, and lower/mid
MS Valleys. Across the West, a weakening mid/upper-level low is
forecast to gradually move southeastward towards parts of the
Pacific Northwest coast.

...Sabine Valley into the lower MS Valley/Mid-South/TN Valley...
Low-level moisture return will continue on Monday along/ahead of the
front, with 60s F dewpoints spreading from east TX into parts of the
Mid-South, and lower/mid 50s F dewpoints potentially reaching into
parts of the Ohio Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop (mainly
later in the forecast period) within the richer moisture along/ahead
of the front from the Sabine Valley into the Mid-South/TN Valley.
Deep-layer shear will become increasingly favorable with time, and a
strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, but most current guidance
suggests that weak buoyancy/lapse rates will tend to limit storm
organization and intensity.

...Ohio Valley...
Guidance generally suggests that low-level moistening will be
insufficient to support deep convection with northward extent along
the front into the Ohio Valley, resulting in low thunderstorm
potential. The most aggressive guidance (with respect to the
strength of the surface low and frontal convergence) does depict
some potential for weak low-topped convection with localized gusty
winds spreading eastward with the front from late afternoon into the
evening.

..Dean.. 11/23/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 240742
SWODY3
SPC AC 240741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great
Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime
from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave
will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies.

At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a
cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast.

While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the
front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying
will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but
both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 241917
SWODY3
SPC AC 241916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to
move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with
this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes
into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New
England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal
destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across
parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale
ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at
this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in
association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit
thunderstorm potential.

Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is
expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies.
Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support
weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from
OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies.
Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a
general-thunderstorm area at this time.

..Dean.. 11/24/2024

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 250807
SWODY3
SPC AC 250807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley
into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across
northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over
much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed
max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday.

At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO
Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A
cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as
it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast
States.

...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley...
A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the
day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast
TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped
during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight
as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear
(with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will
be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb.
This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce
severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary
layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could
result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts.

Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities
this outlook cycle.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$

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