ACUS11 KWNS 232216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232215=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1980
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Fri Aug 23 2024

Areas affected...Western Kansas...far Eastern Colorado...the OK/TX
Panhandles and Northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232215Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and severe hail possible with
the strongest cells into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows an uptick in convective
development across the region as peak heating has allowed surface
temperatures to rise into the upper 90s and low 100s F, eclipsing
convective temperatures. Southeasterly low-level flow has ushered in
ample moisture, with surface dew point temperatures in the mid 60s
F. This combination is yielding MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg in areas
downstream of northeastward-moving developing convection. Marginally
enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow is resulting in upwards
of 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear that increases with northward
extent.

The ongoing convective activity is expected to continue through the
evening. Steep low-level lapse rates should promote a few damaging
wind gusts with the strongest cells, along with some severe hail.
However, convective inhibition increases with eastward extent. This
along with a gradual loss of peak heating should limit storm
organization and severe coverage, though convective trends will be
monitored.

..Karstens/Gleason.. 08/23/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4kqL9dHpLgY8oINnvnqF2PiD8Q0fQug2M4sICsfzrye_TXcNHFwGu7ZCGO3PVobfCSyIPoIFd= In9DkSY0TSgxyMHh5c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37850262 38460262 39060157 38740052 38059986 37289892
36619843 35889873 36140010 36860156 37850262=20


=3D =3D =3D
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