ACUS11 KWNS 152004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152003=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-152230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1908
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

Areas affected...parts of northeast Kansas...northwest Missouri and
southern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152003Z - 152230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
appears possible as early as 5-7 PM CDT. One or two supercells may
evolve, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts
and perhaps some potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Low-level forcing for convective development remains
generally weak and/or unclear. However, a seasonably moist
boundary-layer along and east of the southeastward advancing weak
surface troughing is becoming moderately unstable across parts of
northeast Kansas into southern Iowa, where CAPE now appears in
excess of 2000 J/kg and mid-level inhibition is eroding. This is
being aided by both continuing insolation and mid-level cooling
associated with a notable short wave perturbation pivoting across
the mid to lower Missouri Valley vicinity. As the exit region of a
40-70 kt westerly jet in the 500-300 mb layer noses across the
stronger destabilization, vertical shear is becoming increasingly
conducive to supercells. Although timing of thunderstorm initiation
remains uncertain, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear
possible as early as 22-00z, particularly within a corridor
east-southeast of St. Joseph MO through the Missouri/Iowa border
vicinity.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-c2RWbe3IhntpF0LKqeK4PXmqtf6iUNlhmGNbHDPMssfJv5XBwpF4Wjs8XejrRwAfRVpSHpOd= IH1Oz_FZbUih93Jg28$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 40219546 41349399 41859248 41099091 40429178 38959464
39279575 40219546=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)