ACUS11 KWNS 140119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140118=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-140245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0818 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Northwestern Kansas...and
Southwestern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620...

Valid 140118Z - 140245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 620
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat continues for WW 620, where thunderstorms have
organized into a linear bowing MCS capable of damaging winds.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have grown upscale into a linear-bowing
MCS, moving eastward off the High Plains and into northwestern
Kansas and southwestern Nebraska. Reports of 60-70 MPH winds have
been associated with this complex, and it is moving into an
environment with stronger CAPE/shear combinations that should result
in further intensification. Additionally, surface flow ahead of the
MCS is nearly perpendicular to the outflow boundary/cold pool, which
should aid in maintaining upright convection and maintain MCS
intensity with eastward extent. The greatest threat for damaging
winds will be at the apex of any bowing segments, especially if a
rear inflow jet is able to develop. While the primary threat will be
for damaging winds, some brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out due to
significant curvature of the low-level hodographs evident in recent
KGLD VAD wind profiles, where 0-1 km SRH and 0-3 km SRH have
increased to 148 m^2/s^2 and 318 m^2/s^2, respectively.

..Halbert/Wendt.. 08/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-LRpwRvaKIjbcXcAqJ6tLdh9YgQPh6SH5WxJ_vTk2NfOklS11RCj-zHuV9TUoVXyg1SAe0wfE= Tpv9V7OXdEQkYjM9CI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39220271 39390324 39520349 39740344 39880327 40070315
40340309 40560306 40800302 41070287 41300274 41410208
41410157 41390085 41170025 40959999 40450006 40000041
39590096 39310149 39130186 39220271=20


=3D =3D =3D
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