• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1679

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 18 19:32:34 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 181932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181932=20
    MTZ000-182130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1679
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

    Areas affected...portions of central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181932Z - 182130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of central
    MT this afternoon and evening. The severe threat is currently
    expected to remain sparse, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level impulse/500 mb vort max is pivoting around
    the upper ridge while traversing the AB/MT border area, which in
    tandem with strong surface heating, is supporting recent attempts at
    convective initiation (per latest visible satellite). While MLCINH
    still remains (per 19Z mesoanalysis), continued surface heating and
    approach of the 500 mb vort max should support a gradual increase in
    coverage and intensity of thunderstorms this afternoon. Some
    vertical speed shear induced by the approaching mid-level impulse
    will support elongated hodographs, with multicell clusters and
    perhaps a transient supercell or two possible. 19Z mesoanalysis also
    shows 8+ C/km lapse rates extending from just above the surface to
    over 500 mb, indicative of the potential for efficient downward
    momentum transport via evaporative cooling. As such, any storm that
    develops has at least some potential for producing a severe gust.

    At the moment, it appears that the severe threat should be isolated,
    so a WW issuance is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/18/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_OaROjIJRThaImQqAAHV4gEyeK3spLg3VytbeFo_GuPt5dAvAbj-sklzOBzYZ5Y8GKjEi9dcB= lqUoHMRsGwKtITMnEg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 45600946 46311081 47541204 48591287 49021283 49051199
    48571046 47400885 46500814 45910789 45680800 45570872
    45600946=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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