ACUS11 KWNS 152227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152226=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0526 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Areas affected...Central Iowa into northwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539...

Valid 152226Z - 160030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 539
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe hail threat will persist for the next 1-2 hours
across central to eastern IA, but a gradual transition to a
predominant wind threat appears likely after 00 UTC based on recent
convective trends.

DISCUSSION...Imagery from KDMX over the past 30-60 minutes has shown
gradual cold pool amalgamation of initially discrete supercells
north of the Des Moines, IA area. New convection developing along
the outflow will likely initially pose a large hail threat given
sufficiently strong environmental wind shear (around 35 knots
observed on the KDMX VWP). However, the mean westerly winds are
mostly aligned with the outflow boundary, which will continue to
foster upscale growth in the coming hours. How fast semi-discrete
cells transition to a more organized MCS remains uncertain, but
based on the aforementioned trends and recent HRRR solutions, this
transition may occur by around 00 UTC as storms propagate to the
east/southeast along a diffuse baroclinic zone towards northwest IL.

..Moore.. 07/15/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PATFJtSQff9qxKUgQy2UascttoB-56-n1LgcLF_6fF6tCLBpCDPcWv1X6bs1R-i9eolcP8IE= hQu3sATAiEOC7tCw2A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON 40499194 41219367 41349415 41529435 41669437 41839427
42019381 42709196 42719155 42488875 42328857 41898857
41328872 40778915 40378979 40319041 40379102 40499194=20


=3D =3D =3D
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