ACUS11 KWNS 032057
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032057=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-032300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Wed Jul 03 2024

Areas affected...eastern Colorado into western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 032057Z - 032300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging wind to
continue through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed across eastern Colorado
this afternoon along a lee trough located in the central high
Plains, with additional development expected through the rest of the
afternoon and evening. Ahead of this activity, portions of eastern
Colorado into western Kansas have destabilized with daytime heating.
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is observed in mesoanalysis amid deep
layer shear of 40-50 kts. Storm mode will initially favor supercells
with potential for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.
Through the evening, cells may attempt to merge along outflow with
risk of damaging wind increasing. A watch may be needed in the next
couple of hours.

..Thornton/Gleason.. 07/03/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!82eP2ZMut5D5H8Or3yocky_ogTHL0N6-hi5HREEMC_GIWKUwlyYVM79-kzXFJhC-bbK8ZMPp9= 6pxIByFWdtQKPZ-5l4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 39710420 40370325 40220041 39299951 38429955 37540002
37190043 37040084 37090232 37090373 37330419 37960422
39710420=20


=3D =3D =3D
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