ACUS11 KWNS 102205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102205
WYZ000-IDZ000-UTZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2358
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Idaho...western
Wyoming...and northern Utah

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102205Z - 110000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail.

DISCUSSION...Recent observations indicate an uptick in lightning
activity with ongoing convection coincident with the development of
weak buoyancy (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) across southeastern Idaho
and northern Utah over the past hour. While available buoyancy is
expected to remain limited, strong southwesterly flow aloft (30-40
kts at ~3 km AGL per the MTX/SFX VWPs) downstream of an mid/upper
trough centered over the Pacific Northwest is contributing to 30-45+
kts of effective shear across the region. This will allow for
convective organization into one or more linear clusters and perhaps
marginal supercell structures. With steep low- and mid-level lapse
rates (8-9+ C/km) noted via latest objective analysis and modified
RAP forecast soundings, an isolated risk for damaging wind gusts may
develop where stronger downdrafts can transport greater momentum to
the surface. Marginally severe hail may also be possible with any
transient supercell structure that can evolve owing to elongated
hodographs and cool mid-level temperatures. The magnitude of the
severe threat will generally be tempered by weak buoyancy and the
relatively quick onset of nocturnal cooling within the next couple
of hours, however, which will preclude the need for a watch.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 10/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-x5OWtmxSaK0Q2CYH7A1hdzq9pJkfV8nBjFXtBPRrNv1vcfxPjLYCRJmub4PGdHttpzTwYYFAEYqzYdHrEq4A9QB9Rk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RIW...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON 43161334 43921244 44151188 44221127 44201101 44091083
43661056 42791055 41931079 41561126 41301244 41471296
41801344 42131361 42491369 43161334

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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