ACUS11 KWNS 092148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092148
FLZ000-092315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Areas affected...The Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 677...

Valid 092148Z - 092315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 677 continues.

SUMMARY...The main tornado threat this evening will be near the
coast as supercells east of the hurricane core interact with a
surface warm front.

DISCUSSION...Hurricane Isaias will make landfall this evening along
the western FL Panhandle coast (see latest NHC advisories for
details). East of the inner hurricane core, broken bands of
supercells will continue to spread northward into the FL Big Bend.
As the hurricane moves northward, surface warm front will likewise
make some northward progress, as evidenced by gradual increases in
surface temperatures/dewpoints into the mid-upper 70s. These
surface conditions will contribute to surface-based buoyancy near
and a little inland from the coast over the next few hours. The VWP
from KTLH shows a large, curved hodograph and estimated 0-1 km SRH
has roughly doubled since 19z with largely streamwise vorticity in
the low levels. The greatest tornado threat will be with the broken
convective bands/supercells moving northward into the FL Big Bend
and interacting with the zone of strongest low-level shear along the
warm front.

Tornado Watch 677 is scheduled to expire at 01z, but will be
replaced with a new watch by 00-01z.

..Thompson.. 10/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7uLZl-QhFBvB0cSKUnihYAfk-QML3nFq7T7Psaqa5hdEVBUBYAu8rLzlr0XuhNxNSMBmvp793gEnf-8eUAAycgFU2RU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29178211 29058244 29378299 29668420 29798490 29908506
30188503 30288468 30328426 30188368 29988298 29828247
29598214 29178211

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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