ACUS11 KWNS 010423
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010423
OKZ000-TXZ000-010630-

Mesoscale Discussion 2344
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Areas affected...central Oklahoma into northwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 010423Z - 010630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of storms may produce strong gusts of 40-50 mph as
it moves into central Oklahoma. Isolated damaging gusts cannot be
ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move across southwest OK,
with wind gusts over 40 mph reported and strong pressure rises noted
on the mesonet. A slower moving portion of this system extends from
Blaine into Washita Counties, with higher echo tops noted.

VWPs indicate south/southwest boundary layer flow continues across
the region, with up to 40 kt near 1 km AGL. This should maintain
northward moisture flux ahead of the approaching line of storms and
wind shift, and some uptick in intensity is possible. A larger
leading cluster over south-central OK may modify the environment
somewhat, but appears to be far enough removed from the western
activity to not weaken it much.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_g6IEqdKICPZjxYqOTfNerFsjAe8Lrccznc1-9K0HfEVBr-zD5Lq4k2UD6ZxZWSBVkKNT81WLFOT_eiXvMwzR-ltzpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 33489966 34089905 34599885 35019885 35419900 36049807
36049766 35999750 35839731 35359731 35049733 34599752
34089793 33709830 33479875 33449937 33489966

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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